Alicornutopia

there's also a 1 in 4 chance that aestrix is the traitor (jalapeno is confirmed not traitor, Oris doesn't make any sense as traitor, there are 4 of us left. it's 1 in 3 from the perspective of those of us in the group of 4 that know ourselves to not being the traitor, but all four of us can pretend to be in that group of 3 so that's not an argument.). but if she's not traitor we really don't want to lose a smart person like aestrix <3

tulip do you want to try following aestrix's advice about no lynch or do you want me to try? it'd be weird for me to do it right now when i just said i was going to vote for wolfrider and no posts have happened since then, but maybe in a page or two i could if you really don't want to?

I'm honestly not sure how to handle this. Especially now, with MTC's vote being added to the mix to balance out BSS. If we can tilt just one more vote towards Alphabeta, especially if it's not one of ours, that would be ideal. If not, there'll be a 50% chance of Aestrix dying, and that's too high. I'd say no lynch is definitely an acceptable solution if we can pull it off, but we need to be careful to avoid seeming to flip-flop too hard. I probably could get away with claiming to believe BSS—my Innocent!Tulip subroutine is returning about a 40% reduction in suspicion towards Alphabeta—but turning around and casting a no-lynch vote would be much harder to do believably after my previous level of support for day-one lynching, and if I take my vote off Alphabeta and put it anywhere other than no-lynch, then it puts us in an even worse position than we're in right now.

looks like Kappa and michael are defaulting to no lynch (if that's what "withdraw" means).

I vote we not kill BSS or Alpha for 3 nights and then start whining about how suspicious it is that mafia haven't killed them yet.

I'm pretty sure they're switching to abstain rather than no lynch. Which is extremely bad for us, because it pushes Aestrix right back up to the top of the vote-count. And MTC is against us too, now. And it means that we might not be able to get away with claiming that they're mafia, or at least not mafia with any communicative connection with Aestrix. Kind of a mess all around.

I could plausibly have just woken up and barely caught up with the thread in time to change my vote to "no lynch" rather than Alphabeta?

(In which case, how much longer should I wait before visibling myself on the online list, and then again before posting? There's a little under an hour left; it actually took me about half an hour to catch up just now.)

Go for it. I was just about to say that now is the perfect time for any of us who can get away with it to switch to no lynch. Not sure about the time thing which I only saw after already posting my response, but try to appear early enough to be plausibly caught up.

Alright. I think I can get away with it; I was one of the first to vote Alphabeta, with weaker evidence, and have hardly been online since. I'll visible myself and start "catching up" and then try to change my vote just before noon (should be ~20min before day end).

ETA: weird, I did the same thing to visible myself as to unvisible myself, but I'm not visibling. Not that important, I guess.

Tamien wrote:Alright. I think I can get away with it; I was one of the first to vote Alphabeta, with weaker evidence, and have hardly been online since. I'll visible myself and start "catching up" and then try to change my vote just before noon (should be ~20min before day end).

ETA: weird, I did the same thing to visible myself as to unvisible myself, but I'm not visibling. Not that important, I guess.

you might have to log out and log back in?

Hmm, okay. Last time I just had to refresh; I'll give that a shot.

ETA: cool, that worked.