...Moriwen wrote:What if someone believes they're pouring dyed water on a rock where the ritual calls for wine, but actually a Very Confused Thief broke into their house overnight and swapped out wine for their dyed water, so they are in fact pouring wine on the rock? Does the ritual fail (because they expect it to) or succeed (because if they knew all the facts, they would expect it to)?
I think it succeeds, unless the ritual is very new. The collective belief about How Magic Works overrides the person's individual belief that they are cheating. If this person then went around loudly (and mistakenly) claiming that the ritual worked even though they used dyed water, that might have interesting effects on the results of future experiments.