Short Stories Mafia Game Thread

[epsilonbeta]

Oh you're right, you had mentioned Eva before that and I even acknowledged it, my apologies. And at this point we're running out of unverified town to be "defensibly" suspicious of, though I suppose I'm one of them :P

Downgrading HybridKizi to be on par with anthusiasm as an unknown. At risk of being actively sheep, will probably vote next Day for whomever a confirmed townie makes the strongest case(if such a Day is to occur etc.).

[anthusiasm]

Ack, okay, this is the third time I have attempted to make this post, I have been trying to escape my relatives all day. I'm going to make an abbreviated list for time reasons, just assume I agree with the general consensus for everyone I don't mention except me (I'm Town).

HybridZizi: I am sympathetic towards HybridZizi because her natural playstyle is similar to mine and she comes off as authentically newbie town. I tentatively believe her roleclaim.

Epsilonbeta: I am currently more suspicious of him than anyone else except maybe Eva. I read him as either "smart newbie town" or "newbie Mafia who is getting coaching in being non-suspicious," and I'm not sure which one is true.

Eva: Her confusion about her power seems genuine, but she's clearly very experienced at this game and I don't doubt her ability to lie plausibly. I will probably keep my vote on her unless a better option presents itself.

BlueSkySprite: I have a weird, paranoid suspicion about BSS (I have been hyper-suspicious for this entire game because the town got so thoroughly trounced in Elcenia mafia). Her powerclaim is weird and iirc all the information she's given us is stuff she could plausibly have known/would plausibly make up if she were Mafia. I don't particularly endorse this suspicion, but I think keeping quiet about suspicions is antitown even if said suspicions turn out to be totally wrong. I do not recommend killing BSS unless we are really, really out of options.

[epsilonbeta]

HybridZizi* again sorry, I fear I'm going to keep mixing those up as long as we're in Short Story setting 3:

[Tamien]

@anthusiasm, I've been reading epsilonbeta as "smart newbie town" - I think if he were being coached in being not suspicious he would be, uh, doing less things like posting fake crypto and making oblique intimations about information he wants to share and more... presenting a cohesive and comprehensible front?

I've been lightly scumreading Hybridzizi (I agree that you both have a certain "tentativeness" to your posting style - your posts have more actual proTown content, though, possibly just because you're more experienced), and townreading Eva (though I agree with your assessment that her experience means she's likely able to lie plausibly).

I trust BSS's info, both because it seems very unlikely for her to have been making things up (especially given the accuracy we've seen, though I grant that a lot of that could have been spoofed by being Mafia) and because I satisfied my skepticism yesterday.

Eva sleepwalking seems less likely than Eva having killed pistachi0n, so I'm going to

Vote Eva

[Shoal]

while i too have been lightly scumreading hybridzizi, i’d like to note that in cases where every single person in the town (except the person in question) has a scumread on somebody, that person is not usually mafia but is usually town. think back to last game when for most of the game the mafia weren’t scumreading each other we had some of each other as being town and others being nullish but at no point was any of us the top scumread of literally everybody in the town because we didn’t let it happen. If everyone is scumreading someone, that’s a hint that the mafia doesn’t mind them being lynched.

The only exceptions are, for example, if there is a cop guilty on somebody because then it’s in the mafia’s best interest to not stand out as opposing that lynch when they know the person is guilty. or sometimes mafia bus their partners but usually they don’t do it for no reason, the person has to do something genuinely suspicious and the mafia has to do a cost benefit analysis. see for example the saving aestrix thread from last game.

[BlueSkySprite]

Right. I think HybridZizi has been acting more like a new town person than like mafia because it doesn't seem like she's being coached on not acting scummy. I think I am overall more suspicious of Anthusiasm than of HybridZizi just because she is acting slightly more like what I'd expect someone being advised on how to be town like to act. Not by a lot, but of the unverified people, I am slightly more suspicious of her.

[Shoal]

I am also somewhat suspicious of Anthusiasm. She’s been hedging her bets a lot this game and she’s been reluctant to remove probably town people from her lynch pool until all shred of a doubt is removed. For example, I’m conftown now that pistachi0n is dead, but I should have been considered probabletown or conditionaltown based on pistachi0n’s clear, and I wasn’t. and pistachi0n herself was obvtown but people were reluctant to admit that. and now some people are doing it to you as well. If Eva flips town or something then sure we can revisit suspicion on BSS, but until then she’s almost certainly town and people who are grumbling about it are looking a lot like scum who are frustrated that there aren’t enough lynchable targets.

She’s also played a few times before so she doesn’t really need coaching.

[PlainDealingVillain]

vote Eva

[BlueSkySprite]

Yeah. "

Her powerclaim is weird and iirc all the information she's given us is stuff she could plausibly have known/would plausibly make up if she were Mafia.

except that I have been confirmed non-mafia by pistachi0n, and have successfully given results about non-mafia players. It would have been ridiculously and pointlessly risky for a mafia-member to declare that neither Shoal nor pistachi0n went anywhere on nights 1 and 2 without knowing it. I also declared PDV Independent, although he had already confirmed it, and Tamien town. If I were mafia, which I have been confirmed not to be, I couldn't know whether Tamien was town, just whether she was mafia. And she could probably safely claim to be town-friendly independent if she were, since we're not killing PDV for making the same claim.


So I think it'd probably be best to get an investigation of both of them. Ideally, I think I'd like a tracking on Anthusiasm and a faction-read on HybridZizi? Because I think Anthusiasm is the most likely to be a mafia-member, and get caught killing someone, since I think the mafia might be down to just one or two people by now. And then if both of them are mafia, or HybridZizi is a different kind of scum, we can find that out too? I could probably be persuaded to have a different preference between what I find out about each of them. I think it helps a little bit to think ahead of time what information I'd most like to get, since that clarifies what I can do depending on what information I actually get.


...I don't know if it's a thing that can happen but it'd be a real waste if both of my investigative powers got used on the same person.Which seems more likely since the pool of people is smaller.

I think if it's randomly generated, there's 1/7 people each type of investigation could choose, or 1/8 if it could choose me. So that would be a 7/49 = 1/7 or 8/64 = 1/8 chance of both results being for the same person. If there's no repetition for each type of investigation, there are I think 3 possible repetitions (Anthusiasm, Epsilon, or HybridZizi) and 20 possible combinations, which is a slightly higher chance of repetition than the other way, or if they can be self-investigating, 4 (Anthusiasm, BlueSkySprite, Epsilon, or Hybridzizi) and 30 possible combinations =2/15, which is between 1/7 and 1/8. I guess it could still be useful if both results were for the same person, if someone was mafia but not killing anyone that night.

I'm not very good at statistics, so I'm not sure how to tell from the results so far whether it'd be more likely that repetitions were allowed from each of my investigative powers or not if they are random. I don't even know how to tell how likely it is that they are random.

[BlueSkySprite]

Also, I'm not sure how likely it is, given that intentional-looking-in-hindsight argument between Paradox and Eva, but I think it's at least possible that Eva gave away her True Name and got controlled by fairies or something, but we still need there to not be killers in this town, even unwitting ones. I think it's ridiculously likely that Eva killed pistachi0n though. If Eva turns out to have been town, it's possible that if HybridZizi is actually Holly and Crystal, she might be controlled to the same effect.

Just in case, people should really try to avoid giving out their True Names or hints to them. In the future, if you need to claim, please try to avoid giving away your True Name in the process.