Short Stories Mafia Game Thread

[DanielH]

That might be good, but I’m not sure how much it would actually help, especially today. My opinions at least haven’t really had a chance to develop beyond what they were at when I first posted, where I had practically no information. I mean, I have some ideas I could put in a read post, and it will probably help more tomorrow when somebody has died and presumably some investigative roles have had time to think.

I agree that talking is good but think we were focussing too much on a single specific late-game issue which was unlikely to come up.

[Eva]

Lurking is almost always the most scummy thing, IMO. Unless you have a meta for lurking all the time anyway, but I know nobody in this game so I'm probably going to assume that lurkers are not nice people. (Aside from IRL considerations, ofc. But still, if you are town you should be actively investigating.)

People going 'Oh, it's day one, there's nothing we can do to gain information' annoy me because they are not participating in discussion. The more the scum have to talk, the more likely they are to trap themselves somehow. Therefore, you want to put pressure on the scum to talk! Not only that, but lynching is almost always preferable to no-lynching. It's just not a good plan to give up on day 1 as a bad job - you're basically handing the scum a free night at that point.

[DanielH]

It is harder to get useful information on Day 1 than other times. This doesn’t mean we should give up; it just means it’s difficult.

I looked through the last game. Shoal behaved the same way last time, but only in the secret mafia forum, so I’ll give them a “probably-Town” pass for now. Unfortunately, that means that I need to figure out somebody else to vote for.

I am most suspicious of jalapeno_dude, but I have no idea why that is. It might be partially because he was the first to break from the banter of the first few pages, and he did so by accusing me, which should not really be a mark against him. It might be unconscious bandwagoning because Shoal voted against Jalapeno and I just deemed Shoal probably-town; this is also not a good reason to vote that way. It might also be for real reasons I’m having trouble bringing to conscious attention. If I have time tomorrow I will re-examine this thread and see if I can come up with a better target or better reasons. In the meantime, I need to vote for somebody to make sure my vote isn’t randomized, and I can’t guarantee I will have time to do it tomorrow.

Vote jalapeno_dude

[wolffreak567]

I will admit that lurking is suspicious but sometimes people have busy schedules or lives and don't post very often so basing suspicions on lurking isn't necessarily going to work well for this. In the last game, the lurkers tended to be town and not scum with the exception of the demon so it isn't necessarily a good idea to use that logic with this particular group in general. Also, I will try to be less lurky but I'm still not good at sharing suspicions or posting in general so it will be difficult for me to come up with constructive things to say.

I'm not sure why but Shoal and DanielH seem suspicious to me. I think it might have been something from some of the earlier posts but I'm not sure. I'll have to re-read and figure it out.

Vote DanielH

[jalapeno_dude]

@modrony: I have changed my mind about the answer to your question. After thinking about it, I am sufficiently worried by the difference between this (last game) and this (this game) that I no longer think it worth killing someone unless I'm sure (say, >90% confidence) that they're scum (or at the very least an unpowered townie). No one meets that threshold for me right now, so:

Vote No Lynch

[Eva]

Personally, I would argue against jalapeno_dude being scum - being the first person to accuse someone draws a lot of attention, so it'd be risky for the scum to attempt it. It's a gambit, and I would not expect gambits this early in the game. Plus, the scum want us not discussing things, so they would probably want the starting banter to last as long as possible.

Then again, they could be trying for a random-lynch, but I wouldn't expect that sort of thing to actually succeed with a bunch of glowficcers playing.

If you feel Jalapeno_Dude is a good lead, by all means, vote for him, but I would rather look for better options via continuing discussion.

Also, regarding Fairies and Names, while I'm here: I've played in games with a Obliterator role who could kill and gain death-immunity for a day and night by succesfully naming someone's role publically. I would not expect explaining your role but not your name to be proof against fairies, should they exist. Then again, that may just be anchoring talking.

Ninja edit before publication, given recent posts: Okay, I'm starting to be nudged in the direction of suspecting Jalapeno_Dude a little now, given that No Lynch vote. No Lynch votes rarely if ever help the town, in my experience. I can see his point re: the changed response to Murder solving problems, but I would hesitate to read too much into it. It might mean that there are fairies, it might mean that there is a survivor, it might just mean Alicorn is messing with us. I am still strongly in favor of murdering people.

[MTC]

As a natural lurker trying to make myself post more, I find myself in agreement with Eva’s points related to trying to make lurkers post more.

DanielH’s analysis of Shoal’s posts seems like pro‑town behavior to me, causing me to currently believe that both DanielH and Shoal are town.

I’m also not convinced by any of the arguments so far against a day 1 lynch, and I tend to agree that arguing against a day 1 lynch is scummy behavior. Given that, and that I haven’t noticed anything else particularly causing me to want to vote for someone:

Vote jalapeno_dude

[Yadal]

Minor idea- I'm not sure if we should say these in the thread or not, but it would be a good idea to prepare conclusions in advance of what we will conclude if jalapeno_dude is, or is not, Scum. In particular, hypothetical reevaluations of the odds of every other suspect. Doing this now instead of after the fact will reduce bias.

[epsilonbeta]

Re: mod hedge about lynching, are there any characters that could have a "if X and Y die, go insane and kill everyone" hidden/not power? Or does "giving information about win conditions" just mean that some townies/not have win conditions that require events other than death?

[Tamien]

Re: Shoal behaving towards us this game as they did in the mafia threads last game, that is a good point but do keep in mind that we had rooted out the traitors in the mafia thread and we have *not* rooted out the traitors in this thread; Shoal may is probably making an effort to appear helpful, knowledgeable, and trustworthy. Once Shoal was demoned last game, their posts in the mafia thread were as verbose and prolific and informative but also pointed at a different cause. Right now I'm townreading Shoal but am slightly suspicious of them.

jalapeno_dude I was pretty strongly townreading up until he moved to no-lynch on the first day, and now I'm very suspicious of him. He's mathy enough and strategic enough that I'm really surprised to see him advocating against a lynch on the first day. This *is* tempered by the honestly very worrying revelation that murder may not in fact be the answer to all our problems, but I think that even knowing that, we should still kill *someone* today.

I don't have a strong enough read on anyone else yet that it's coming to mind without reviewing the thread. I'm gonna start tabulating my suspicions tomorrow and will try to say at least a few words on everyone then.

And as for myself, yes, posting the countdown is a lazy way to get towncred, but it's also in fact really useful and no one had done it yet, so it was low hanging fruit that I am entirely unapologetic about picking :P I *do* apologize for being so quiet, though; I've had social and familial obligations all weekend. I should be able to be more on top of the thread for the next few days at least, but starting Thursday I'll be on to the east coast for a week for a wedding. I will try to keep up but will probably post more sparsely than I'd like.