Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

[Shoal]

I'm really sorry guys. Unexpected offline stuff happened. I didn't post anywhere yesterday and then I fell asleep early.

I was hoping paradox and anthusiasm would have been active more and said something. I'm most suspicious of Paradox at the moment because this is LYLO and they've barely done anything today and I know that's hypocritical of me given that I had to miss a day too but they've missed two days. On my second newbie game on the other site one of the lurkier players who had been mafia was talking about how stressful it was to be mafia and how it was hard to participate in LYLO because anything they could say about us would be made up. They hadn't wanted to be a typical mafia lurker but they defaulted into it.

I'm also a bit suspicious of anthusiasm because she hasn't done much all game but her role does seem plausible and she also had pneumonia which is a really good excuse -- I've had that before and it was terrible. I definitely couldn't have participated much with it.

Vote Paradox

It's morning and I'm barely awake but this is where I want my vote to be.

[Shoal]

Unofficial vote count:
not voting: 4 (anthusiasm, jalapeno_dude, michaelblume, paradox)
Shoal: 2 (modrony, tamien)
Paradox: 1 (shoal)

Navigation:
Morning 1
Evening 1/Morning 2
Evening 2/Morning 3
Evening 3/Morning 4
Evening 4/Morning 5
Evening 5/Morning 6

I'll be really sorry if my offline stuff costs us the game, guys. I didn't have breakfast until sundown and then I fell asleep not much after that. It was just that kind of day.

[Shoal]

I'm going to go over the remaining players posts and make cases.

Paradox's posts in isolation

Paradox

---

weak entrance, but I don't really fault them for it because I feel the same way at the beginning of the game. I often feel frustrated having to form opinions when I don't have anything to go on yet. The solution to that is for everyone to generate content until we do have something to go on. It's the difference between "I wish the ice were already broken, so I'm going to break it" and "I wish the ice were already broken so I'll wait until something happens to break it". But I think this is just an inexperience thing and a playstyle thing, but people have called me out for it on mafiascum when I was town and they were right. I think this is null.

Next post provides list of dramatis personae which is helpful. Agrees to start a listpost but says that if anyone thinks of a reason why we shouldn't have them, then they won't post it. This was an opportunity for modrony to speak up but I think it's possible that modrony didn't start to see the trouble with them until a few had already been posted and it was easier to get an idea of the data mining possibilities of the list posts, and the rest of us didn't see it until modrony pointed it out to us.

Posts a listpost. I think only the vanilla townie rolls are left from it as plausible options? saasnil, taala, jensal, finnah. Not the dragon council because if they were masons with somebody we would have heard of it by now.

Interacts with me a little bit (showing surprise that I thought Alicorn would let people choose their own alignment)

Contributes to suggestions about listposts.

Agreed to try and get an avatar (and later followed through on it)

A little bit of setup speculation.

Refrained from voting (but got an avatar). Refraining from taking a stance with your vote, which is half of your powers as a townie, can be seen as leaving options open for later, trying to not antagonise anyone too early on. When we know the deadline is going to happen at a certain time regardless, there is no downside to voting and voting helps to pressure people.

Interacted with me some more about BSS and Alpha. I had suggested they were either both town or both scum, but Paradox pointed out they could be lovers with one town one scum. We now know this wasn't the case but Paradox was right about it being a possibility.

Answered my questions about how they picked who to kill last game.

Quoted Aestrix's message at the start of day 2 and speculated that it meant that someone had a vote stealing or vote adding power.

Voted MTC, then changed to PDV about 12 hours later. When they changed their vote, they mentioned they still found MTC suspicious. Pointed out the flaw in the prime numbers thing, but said it was still worth doing. Now that we know that MTC and wolf were town (initially, anyway), this could be an example of mafia trying to keep their options open and not wanting there to be too many confirmed town-aligned players: it narrows the mislynch pool too much for the mafia's liking.

quotes tau, wolffreak, and PDV's list posts about their roles after they died.

Quotes the final vote count one day to show there were actual vote stealing shenanigans going on: "PlainDealingVillain: 5 (Alphabeta, Paradox, Shoal, Tamien, tau, wolffreak567)" If Paradox was right about the vote stealing thing being a mafia power then it's interesting that the vote was stolen from this column. If I were mafia, why would I steal my own vote? Or why would my fellow mafiosos steal my vote? Everyone else on that list was town. I think we had an entirely town wagon against PDV that day.

Voted futurevision.

Speculated that michaelblume survived because he was a dragon. I think even with the Ilen/Hallai thing it's not impossible for michael to be mafia, or to be a dragon and mafia because Hallai was a sociopath. It's true it doesn't fit with the Rynvgaav theme but Hallai could have been michael's safeclaim and he could have been paired with futurevision on that basis. anyway I don't want to get too off track here but Paradox is defending michael here by calling him a dragon and if Paradox is scum then that could be defending their scumbuddy michael. For completion it could also be buddying up to a townie to try to make them less likely to vote them but I don't think that's the case because michael wasn't playing. We tried to lynch him because he wasn't playing, and there's no point in trying to court the feelings of someone who isnt there.

Posted that they were suspicious of futurevision and jalapeno.

Defended self against pistachi0n's push while voting futurevision. This could be scum distancing themselves from each other because if five players were really obviously friends in public that would be suspicious.

Said they weren't participating on May 5th because didn't think it would help with anything.

I townread them for their next post where they reminded us that we were focusing on the demon too much but maybe one of the reasons I wasn't nightkilled was because they expected me not to vote them in LYLO. They're probably telling the truth about being demotivated and apathetic --I think lying about offline stuff is distasteful. But we can't sort this puzzle out unless everyone is participating and some people are not participating (michael, paradox, anthusiasm yesterday, me yesterday).

Mentioned they were suspicious of futurevision and Tulip but voted futurevision. Since futurevision flipped town and Tulip didn't, this is unfortunate.

Speculated on the demon some more, suggesting michaelblume might be possessed. Also speculated on the mechanic the demon uses to jump to the next player. I think if Paradox isn't mafia then Paradox is the demon. One or the other, maybe both. It's true that losing sight of the mafia to focus on the demon is shortsighted but this was all in response to people thinking Paradox might be the demon. It's possible the mafia wants us to focus more on the demon and the demon wants us to focus more on the mafia and it's entirely possible that a mafioso could be infected so maybe pointing at michael was killing two birds with one stone. (Getting us to focus back on the demon again after telling us the mafia was the bigger threat, and pointing at someone that couldn't defend themselves and was probably (though not definitely) not mafia.

And then today they have not done anything except for one short post correcting anthusiasm about the number of mafia members.

Summary: Paradox does a lot of things that look on the surface like contributions, but a lot of it could have come from either town or mafia motivation and they didn't interact with every slot in the game, doesn't spend much time questioning suspects, just lists suspicions and then later votes them. Town can do this too, but it's not protown behaviour. The suspicions boxes thing makes it hard to check, and the official votecounts being in alphabetical order instead of chronological order also makes it hard to check (and many of the unofficial ones too, which is partially my fault I know), but I don't remember Paradox being the first to be suspicious of someone before, though I'm relying on my memory somewhat here because I was going through their posts in isolation. I'll look at the thread in order too and retract this if inecessary.

tl;dr: Either mafia or demon, probably both.

[jalapeno_dude]

Shoal, glad you're back now. I don't blame you for RL getting in the way; it should always take priority.

I'm going to sleep now. Guess modrony isn't awake yet (which is good because it means they're getting at least 6 hours of sleep :) ).

[modrony]

aah awake!

[jalapeno_dude]

aah awake!

OK, you have like 5 minutes to answer my question. I'm going to go brush my teeth. ;)

(I wrote my post up hours ago but will only submit it now if you want me to.)

[modrony]

just woke up.
really unlikely to consider stuff that releases 2 hours before dush as evidence of anything.
Much rather hear you say stuff because then I know stuff about you. can judge credibility of theory independent of source.

[modrony]

and just how little to you think I sleep? been 6 hours since I went asleep.
I am really surprised I got here on time for that.

[Shoal]

Voted MTC after Kappa listed MTC as suspicious in her suspicions post.
Voted PDV (long) after I'd publically said I found PDV suspicious.
Voted futurevision after pistachi0n and kappa had found them suspicious.
thought jalapeno was suspicious about a half hour after BSS's suspicion post where she wrote he was suspicious.
was suspicious of Tulip after I mentioned in my suspicions post that they were suspicious (and a few other people mentioned it too I'm just stopping looking when I find something)

Could be coincidence I guess, but it seems like my memory is backed up by the facts.

I found these results by searching this thread for MTC, PDV, PlainDealingVillain, futurevision, jalapeno, and tulip.

[jalapeno_dude]

Much rather hear you say stuff because then I know stuff about you. can judge credibility of theory independent of source.

Fine.

(I wrote the last bit after I saw Shoal had posted)



Okay, looks like no one figured out my hints. This is probably an illusion-of-transparency thing.

First, I am Saasnil. I do not get to cast spells, because spells are not a thing (at least for me).

Second, because I am Saasnil Paradox isn't. I conclude that Paradox is Mafia. Either Mafia were not given safeclaims in this game, Paradox didn't include their safeclaim in the list, or, what I think is most likely, Paradox's safeclaim is in fact in the list but they got overambitious and we were able to rule it out (either it was a dragonish and Paradox didn't know about dragon tanking powers or it was Eryn and Paradox threw in the part about Rhysel not anticipating Rhysel would be killed so quickly).

I couldn't have reached this conclusion if it hadn't been for Tamien's roleclaim, and I didn't think to go back through the roleposts until earlier today. I think it is now clear that roleposts are a BAD THING for both Town and Mafia.

If my logic is correct, and I think it is, I am 100% sure that Paradox is Mafia (they could also be possessed, but that would have happened only recently and they certainly *started* the game as Mafia).

So, I vote for Paradox.

(I still think it's more likely than not that Shoal is mafia, but I wasn't 100% sure of that even before they posted. I am now *significantly* less than 100% sure, though I suppose a mafia!Shoal could have voted for Paradox to try to split the votes between multiple Mafia. The point is that Shoal *might* be Mafia. Anyone *might* be mafia. Hell, *modrony* could be mafia and playing some incredibly deep game I don't understand. But Paradox is *definitely* mafia. Kill them.)




I sleep now.