Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

[Tamien]

Yeah, it probably did, but it seemed worth it. I definitely won't say whether I can self-protect or not.

[modrony]

@Shoal
So I figured I'd give you a chance to demonstrate town alignment by actually initiating conversation.
(make a hyphothesis, test it)
A credible defence, a plan of action, anything.

Looks like you didn't do that.
I was really hoping you would, because I like you and I really wanted to believe I had made a mistake and you were innocent. It's becoming increasingly difficult to believe that.

Delaying things to the last minute on LYLO is not townish behaviour.
Figured I'd give you 24 hours but it's been 23 since you last spoke and I am getting tired and want to sleep. I was up way too late last night.

Of course the test is weaker because nobody else said anything either, but I do think as someone who has been in LYLO before you would think speaking things through is important. I do think letting things slide like this is uncharacteristic of you.

jalapeno_dude is also suspicious for suggesting that town should want to wait for the last moment. He is my current second choice.
(and I still think the list thing is something he would not have pursued if he was town, but it seems not many agree with that.)

[jalapeno_dude]

Even having convinced myself it makes sense to wait to vote, I am a little disconcerted by the lack of discussion today. I understand modrony and Tamien's silence, since they've already voted, and I obviously understand my own (some combination of being busy, not having anything to respond to, and not being ready to vote yet). I agree with modrony that Shoal's silence today is extremely uncharacteristic for them. Obviously I should not expect michaelblume to be talking.

That leaves anthusiasm and Paradox. I am a little confused by anthusiasm saying she had no suspicions and that she needed to think about it and then going quiet (it seems more pro-town to think out loud in this situation). I am especially upset, though, that Paradox has literally only posted once today (and that post was essentially content-free). This is a critical day which will probably decide the outcome of the game (assuming michaelblume is not mafia, at least), and regardless of whether they're Town or Mafia I don't understand why they're not talking.

[modrony]

I would really appreciate it if people voted for a candidate.
That way we could at least see where peoples suspicions lie and start working things out.

If you are townreading most people adjust your scale.
Three of these people are mafia.

They might be nice, they might answer questions, they probably like you or they wouldn't be playing with us.
Doesn't mean they won't kill you in the night.

preview edit: I agree with Jalapeno there.

[modrony]

@ jalapeno_dude
That post would sound way more townish if it came just a little bit earlier.
The content is very good, but I do find it odd that you waited until I posted.

[jalapeno_dude]

@ jalapeno_dude
That post would sound way more townish if it came just a little bit earlier.
The content is very good, but I do find it odd that you waited until I posted.

This is the first significant amount of free time I've had since waking up this morning. (I posted quickly in the mini-notifications thread a few hours ago in the gap between lunch (which was a meeting for me today) and another meeting, and if there had been posts here I probably would have replied to them at the same time, but lacking that as an impetus I did other things with that time.) The silence was already making me a little nervous before I went to sleep last night but not enough to do anything, and I figured there'd be overnight discussion from the Europeans and US East-coasters. I was vaguely aware that Paradox had been quiet at that point but did not actually search their post history until just now.

Of course you can't verify any of this, so I'm not sure why I'm replying.

[modrony]

I do appreciate replying. It doesn't count for nothing.
People do have things to do and it is understandable.
Just saying that it sounds like you lacked the motivation to actually initiate the conversation.
You aren't alone in that thou, so I don't count it as a very large point against you.

[jalapeno_dude]

Actually since modrony is already annoyed at me for supposedly advocating listposts I might as well see if I can get anything useful out of them.

my listpost
Shoal's listpost
anthusiasm's listpost
Paradox's listpost

For obvious reasons, I am not going to analyze my own listpost. Everyone else is welcome to.

Shoal: I'm going to eliminate the roles already claimed or revealed, those speculated to be killers (the reason to do this seems obvious to me but I can explain if anyone is unsure) and those described as shrens (because this game is post-shren cure and someone who knew they were a dragon and telling the truth in their rolepost would not describe themselves as a shren). I'm also eliminating Mata and Tama because no one else left alive could be the other one of the pair. That leaves the following:

potential Shoal roles

---

Amaiah - vanilla townie
Eret - vengeful. If we lynch Eret, he kills the last person who voted for him.
Finnah - fruit vendor. once a night she can visit someone and give them candy. This means that trackers will see who she visited but not necessarily what she did there.
Narax - powerful wizard, has lots of different spells he can use but can only use each once (for game balance reasons). Each night, he chooses which spell to use and which person to use it on.
Phyrna - a silver group dragon, which is apparently a shade of blue, the group that gets more forms.
Vianne - no clue who this is but I'm guessing vanilla townie

Some of these seems more plausible than others (the Finnah thing is hilarious but seems unlikely). The dragon roles seem unlikely to me because Shoal doesn't note they can soak a kill.

Anthusiasm: given their description of their power only one (vague) entry fits here. I find it plausible that they are what they claim to be.

Paradox: claims in their rolepost they are describing their own real power, so I can throw out the dragons (I had to look it up, but Taala is a shren->dragon) because they failed to describe their kill-soaking powers, in addition to the already claimed roles and the ones with impossible powers (e.g. Paradox can't be Eryn with the described power because then they'd be dead).

Unless I am missing something obvious here, that literally only leaves Saasnil as a possible role if Paradox is town-aligned.

...Paradox, do you want to roleclaim, or explain where my logic was wrong?

[modrony]

Paradox and pistachi0n

---

vote futurevision

Vote Paradox

Silence combined with a last-minute vote (or what would have been last minute if night hadn't started later than expected.) In this case I'd be less suspicious if he hadn't voted at all.

Really? MTC made the same number of posts as me and voted about half an hour before I did, Shoal only voted ten minutes before me and you don't seem suspicious of them. There was around two hours left then anyway so it's not like any of our votes were particularly last minute or even last hour for that matter.

Shoal talked throughout the day. I'm not suspicious of MTC because he was in a pair with wolf and wolf was confirmed down when she died.

And you don't think the fact that someone who is nearly certainly town behaved nearly exactly the same way as me about the things you listed casts doubt on it being a good indicator that someone is anti-town?

This exchange kinda makes me believe that Paradox isn't mafia.
Might be staged, but it does remind me of the time pistachi0n attacked me, so I am inclined to think it's not.
I am more suspicious of him being the demon, but that is kind of irrevelant at the moment.

[modrony]

@Jalapeno
That is an excellent idea at this point.
I think you can cross off Finnah (because the power is utterly useless) and Narax is pretty unlikely because Shoal lacked a night action on the night I checked them.