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Tamien · Post by **Tamien** » Wed May 13, 2015 5:48 pm

i wonder how many people will actually read all of it :P

i'm... really not sure that i understand all of the strategy you guys are throwing around, especially not all the math.

also, anthusiasm's thing might just protect them from people voting for them, not nightkills. and couldn't paradox protect themself?

ETA: have a good sleep, shoal!

Shoal · Post by **Shoal** » Wed May 13, 2015 5:51 pm

doctors usually can't self protect because that's broken but who knows.

jalapeno_dude · Post by **jalapeno_dude** » Wed May 13, 2015 5:52 pm

Ugh, a michael nightkill would be really bad. There's no benefit to us at all. But you're right that if anthusiasm *things* and Paradox is smart they'd all be protected. In this case I think we should take our chances with attempting to kill modrony and hoping Paradox isn't protecting them. Or maybe even deliberately no kill to make people think the demon is a bigger threat? Actually, if we send Tamien to kill modrony either modrony dies or Town *thinks* it was a no kill. We don't even have to worry about Tamien getting caught because as a good light they'd be interacting with modrony anyway. :p Yeah, I think we should definitely do that if we have to.

____________________________

Right now I'm basically trying to act like scum who hasn't figured out that Town is onto him yet. Should I be making an effort to seem more innocent or more scummy? I'm tempted to have a breakdown at modrony just for the hell of it but I'm not sure it would benefit me. :)

jalapeno_dude · Post by **jalapeno_dude** » Wed May 13, 2015 5:57 pm

Sleep well, Shoal!

Tamien wrote:i'm... really not sure that i understand all of the strategy you guys are throwing around, especially not all the math.

Just read these three posts. Don't bother opening the spoilers unless you really want to. The takeaway is that for a certain set of assumptions (none of us are demons currently and if we do get possessed tonight it won't change our win conditions) deliberately lynching Shoal and relying on people townreading you gives us an 80% chance of winning but forcing a tie between Paradox and Shoal and hoping Shoal wins the COINtoss gives us an 82% chance of winning, basically the same. If you change your assumptions it can change which strategy is best, though.

jalapeno_dude · Post by **jalapeno_dude** » Wed May 13, 2015 6:02 pm

Tamien wrote:also, anthusiasm's thing might just protect them from people voting for them, not nightkills. and couldn't paradox protect themself?

Anthusiasm said that the power "guarantee[s] that at least one townsperson, me, will survive until tomorrow." So if they're telling the truth they should be protected from nightkills. On the plus side, it sounds like they have to use the power publically, so we'll know if we need to avoid attacking them.

jalapeno_dude · Post by **jalapeno_dude** » Wed May 13, 2015 6:13 pm

I guess the other thing to point out about the COINflip strategy is that it's much higher variance but has a quicker payoff. If Shoal is spared, we're practically certain to win. If Shoal is killed, we're only a little more likely than not to win. And in either case we're likely to know if we've won or not immediately after the night's results are revealed--if we don't know it'll be clear that the game will be decided on a tie vote and another COINflip--and no matter what it'll be clear that those of us left alive are Mafia. Everyone will be able to vote at the very beginning of the day.

On the other hand, if Shoal is lynched but people think Tamien is town, we have a very good chance of winning, but there are a fair number of night outcomes which lead to the next day's lynch *really mattering*. If people still think Tamien is the light, the burden will be on her to convince the rest of Town to lynch one of their own (presumably Paradox). Things could be dramatic down to the deadline.

jalapeno_dude · Post by **jalapeno_dude** » Thu May 14, 2015 5:06 pm

*crickets*

So, are we all going to be online at the time given here:

?

We probably want to establish some cutoff time (2 minutes before the deadline?) to set our votes to avoid messing up. Maybe we should set up a temporary IRC channel (and give the mods access too, of course)?

jalapeno_dude · Post by **jalapeno_dude** » Thu May 14, 2015 5:25 pm

Also, Shoal, were you busy today? You said that you were going to "keep kicking in the thread until I'm actually dead" and then went silent, and modrony is totally justified in finding that super-scummy. I'd take this as tacit signalling that you were actually possessed and trying to prevent us from trying to save you, but you explicitly denied that yesterday...

Tamien · Post by **Tamien** » Thu May 14, 2015 6:14 pm

I'm really surprised that the thread has been so quiet today. I've been checking in pretty frequently expecting new posts, and... nothing :/

jalapeno_dude · Post by **jalapeno_dude** » Thu May 14, 2015 6:41 pm

So the obvious solution to the "problem" of Shoal being Eret is for anthusiasm to trigger their power and then make sure to be the last one to vote for Shoal. If they realize that it could lead to a fun dynamic where anthusiasm withholds their vote until the last minute waiting for me to vote for Shoal first. Maybe we can time things so anthusiasm doesn't vote at all as a result...

(Is it unsporting of me to be trying to set up a situation like that?)

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