Six-Day-Old Spam
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Tamien
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Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
Huh, anthusiasm is most suspicious of *me*. I wonder what that'll mean when paradox shows up. I wonder if there's anything I ought to do in the meantime. I don't think I really have any more convincing arguments of my towniness
Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
but WIN means WE WIN, no? you're calculating the chances that WE win? and we are more likely to win if there are more of us. we win by mislynching town. we lose when the town lynches all of us. are the numbers you are getting in line with this basic principle of more scum alive = more win, less scum alive = less win? It is late enough that I might be seeing things. I was thinking your numbers were showing: lynch scum for bigger chance of mafia win. lynch town for bigger chance of mafia loss. it was confusing me.jalapeno_dude wrote:Umm, because we're scum and we do better when Townies die? I'll blame this on the lateness. :pShoal wrote:how on earth does lynching scum give us a smaller chance of winning than lynching town?
it's late at night so maybe i'm misunderstanding you.
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jalapeno_dude
- Posts: 1184
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Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
So, my gut feeling is the following:
1. We should try to get Town to lynch Paradox if at all possible.
2. If we have to either get Shoal killed or force a tie, the odds of winning are basically the same if you assume none of us are possessed.
If you think I'm currently possessed: well, you shouldn't, because I'm not. But if I was and had an anti-Mafia win condition, none of this matters because you can't force a tie. If I was and still had a Mafia win condition, you'd be better off forcing the tie, I think, because then there's a higher chance of 2 mafia left tomorrow, but I haven't actually gone through the numbers (because, again, I'm not possessed).
If you think Shoal is possessed and will die tonight, there's still the 80% of a win if we lynch them today, the 65% chance if they lose the coinflip, and if they win the coinflip and die at night the cases are
If you think Tamien is possessed and will die tonight, we want as many mafia left alive as possible, so we should take the COINflip instead of letting Shoal get lynched.
If you think none of us are possessed but are worried about one of us being possessed starting tomorrow? Either win condition doesn't change, in which case it doesn't matter because the game will be over in 2 more days anyway, or it does, in which case...FUCK THIS NO I'M NOT DOING MORE MATH. There's a greater chance of one of us getting possessed if Shoal is still alive. I *think* that outweighs the fact that some of our wins are 3-0 or 3-1 with the 1 being michaelblume, which we still win even if one of us is a demon, but I don't want to do the math. The tables I made should be enough for you to answer this question.
So, I guess it's a wash if none of us are possessed but there's a clear preference for what to do if one of us *is* currently possessed. If you're possessed and still share our win condition, please tell the rest of us that!
1. We should try to get Town to lynch Paradox if at all possible.
2. If we have to either get Shoal killed or force a tie, the odds of winning are basically the same if you assume none of us are possessed.
If you think I'm currently possessed: well, you shouldn't, because I'm not. But if I was and had an anti-Mafia win condition, none of this matters because you can't force a tie. If I was and still had a Mafia win condition, you'd be better off forcing the tie, I think, because then there's a higher chance of 2 mafia left tomorrow, but I haven't actually gone through the numbers (because, again, I'm not possessed).
If you think Shoal is possessed and will die tonight, there's still the 80% of a win if we lynch them today, the 65% chance if they lose the coinflip, and if they win the coinflip and die at night the cases are
table again
so of the 5 cases 3 win, 1.5 loss, .5 COINflip -> 3.25/5, so 65% chance again (in retrospect that was obvious), so we're better off lynching Shoal.If you think Tamien is possessed and will die tonight, we want as many mafia left alive as possible, so we should take the COINflip instead of letting Shoal get lynched.
If you think none of us are possessed but are worried about one of us being possessed starting tomorrow? Either win condition doesn't change, in which case it doesn't matter because the game will be over in 2 more days anyway, or it does, in which case...FUCK THIS NO I'M NOT DOING MORE MATH. There's a greater chance of one of us getting possessed if Shoal is still alive. I *think* that outweighs the fact that some of our wins are 3-0 or 3-1 with the 1 being michaelblume, which we still win even if one of us is a demon, but I don't want to do the math. The tables I made should be enough for you to answer this question.
So, I guess it's a wash if none of us are possessed but there's a clear preference for what to do if one of us *is* currently possessed. If you're possessed and still share our win condition, please tell the rest of us that!
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jalapeno_dude
- Posts: 1184
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Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
In the COINflip case, if you're killed we have a 65% chance of winning. If you survive and a Townie is killed we have a 98% chance of winning. That seems consistent with more scum alive = more win (i.e. "lynching scum gives us a smaller chance of winning than lynching town" :p ).Shoal wrote:but WIN means WE WIN, no? you're calculating the chances that WE win? and we are more likely to win if there are more of us. we win by mislynching town. we lose when the town lynches all of us. are the numbers you are getting in line with this basic principle of more scum alive = more win, less scum alive = less win? It is late enough that I might be seeing things. I was thinking your numbers were showing: lynch scum for bigger chance of mafia win. lynch town for bigger chance of mafia loss. it was confusing me.jalapeno_dude wrote:Umm, because we're scum and we do better when Townies die? I'll blame this on the lateness. :pShoal wrote:how on earth does lynching scum give us a smaller chance of winning than lynching town?
it's late at night so maybe i'm misunderstanding you.
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jalapeno_dude
- Posts: 1184
- Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:57 pm
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Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
Also:
(It should be the same if we successfully nightkill modrony instead (it'll be different for Paradox because Paradox knows Tamien isn't Ahin), but the problem is that modrony might be protected tonight...)
PLEASE NO I DON'T WANT TO REDO THE MATHanthusiasum wrote:(Also my power is defensive and isn't super town-helpful, unless you think it would be really helpful to guarantee that at least one townsperson, me, will survive until tomorrow. I'm considering using it because now I've revealed all this information and probably made myself a target. I've been saving it for in case people try to kill me during the day but people seem to be broadly townreading me so I don't think that's likely to happen).
(It should be the same if we successfully nightkill modrony instead (it'll be different for Paradox because Paradox knows Tamien isn't Ahin), but the problem is that modrony might be protected tonight...)
Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
i'm not possessed, for what it's worth. i am currently hoping paradox is possessed but it's just gut.
if anthusiasm does her thing then i guess she's bullet proof tonight so we go back to killing paradox-or-modrony.
I am okay with dying (though I'll keep kicking in the thread until I'm actually dead) and I want you both to bus me until and unless paradox provides a distraction.
If at one point I have 5 votes on me I can explain the reaction test to modrony about how scum wants to win this toDay and scum doesn't want to lynch scum if scum can at all help it (which is actually true) so we all need to think really hard about why the entire scum team and the rest of the town are voting me.
but hopefully paradox will provide the distraction and we can pile onto paradox. and then i won't explain it to modrony until the end of the game. and even though we're trying to circumvent the reaction test here, it will still be true when i bring it out next game when I'm town.
I think the problem with the math is that not all of those outcomes are equally likely but i dont know how to fix that. or fixing it depends on stuff we don't know. like you account for michaelblume being killed but just about anyone is more likely than that.
preview-edit: i saw more numbers than that and i got confused. but it is late. i'll try rereading tomorrow.
I'm contemplating a new policy that if I can't solve a rubik's cube in 15 minutes then I shouldn't be posting. i'm not sure whether this will turn me into a lurksack (which would be bad) or improve my posting quality. probably lurksack and not improve quality. but it's a thing i've been tossing about in my head.
if paradox is lynched, then we kill modrony at night.
if shoal is lynched, then we kill paradox
if anthusiasm does her thing, we don't kill her because it won't work.
if anthusiasm does her thing then i guess she's bullet proof tonight so we go back to killing paradox-or-modrony.
I am okay with dying (though I'll keep kicking in the thread until I'm actually dead) and I want you both to bus me until and unless paradox provides a distraction.
If at one point I have 5 votes on me I can explain the reaction test to modrony about how scum wants to win this toDay and scum doesn't want to lynch scum if scum can at all help it (which is actually true) so we all need to think really hard about why the entire scum team and the rest of the town are voting me.
but hopefully paradox will provide the distraction and we can pile onto paradox. and then i won't explain it to modrony until the end of the game. and even though we're trying to circumvent the reaction test here, it will still be true when i bring it out next game when I'm town.
I think the problem with the math is that not all of those outcomes are equally likely but i dont know how to fix that. or fixing it depends on stuff we don't know. like you account for michaelblume being killed but just about anyone is more likely than that.
preview-edit: i saw more numbers than that and i got confused. but it is late. i'll try rereading tomorrow.
I'm contemplating a new policy that if I can't solve a rubik's cube in 15 minutes then I shouldn't be posting. i'm not sure whether this will turn me into a lurksack (which would be bad) or improve my posting quality. probably lurksack and not improve quality. but it's a thing i've been tossing about in my head.
if paradox is lynched, then we kill modrony at night.
if shoal is lynched, then we kill paradox
if anthusiasm does her thing, we don't kill her because it won't work.
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jalapeno_dude
- Posts: 1184
- Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:57 pm
- Pronouns: He
Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
But we don't want to nightkill Paradox because then Tamien is revealed as Mafia, right? It's good to lynch her because then we've won, but nightkilling her before another LYLO would be very bad.
I agree with you that not all of the outcomes are equally likely. You shouldn't really take the exact numbers seriously, this is mostly me just trying to get some intuition for the different possibilities. Re michaelblume, though, I think if I was MTC on Night 4 and was told I needed to pick a new host and my goal was to survive as long as possible, I'd be very likely to pick michaelblume on the (correct) theory that everyone would leave him alone. So I think he is *more* likely to be possessed currently, but I agree with you it's unlikely he'd be the demon's nightkill if that's based on choice rather than random.
I agree with you that not all of the outcomes are equally likely. You shouldn't really take the exact numbers seriously, this is mostly me just trying to get some intuition for the different possibilities. Re michaelblume, though, I think if I was MTC on Night 4 and was told I needed to pick a new host and my goal was to survive as long as possible, I'd be very likely to pick michaelblume on the (correct) theory that everyone would leave him alone. So I think he is *more* likely to be possessed currently, but I agree with you it's unlikely he'd be the demon's nightkill if that's based on choice rather than random.
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jalapeno_dude
- Posts: 1184
- Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:57 pm
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Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
On the plus side, the number of posts in this forum has caught up to the number in the game thread again! It looks like Aestrix's guess that we'll hit 10% of the total posts on the forum was an overestimate, though--we're currently at 6.7% and would need another >400 posts to get there.
Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
oh, right. yeah it's late so i'm not thinking that great.
paradox lynched -> modrony nightkill
shoal lynched, anthusiasm didnt thing -> anthusiasm night kill
shoal lynched, anthusiasm did thing --> michael night kill (paradox would confirm tamien as scum. modrony is protected. anthusiasm is protected)
preview-edit: you mean we've been just as active in here, the 6 of us, as all 19 of us have been active out there? wow :D
after the game is over everyone's gonna have so much reading to do! :D
paradox lynched -> modrony nightkill
shoal lynched, anthusiasm didnt thing -> anthusiasm night kill
shoal lynched, anthusiasm did thing --> michael night kill (paradox would confirm tamien as scum. modrony is protected. anthusiasm is protected)
preview-edit: you mean we've been just as active in here, the 6 of us, as all 19 of us have been active out there? wow :D
after the game is over everyone's gonna have so much reading to do! :D
Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
anyway bedtime for reals or i lose more hp tomorrow. it's raining yay.