Six-Day-Old Spam
Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
keep bussing. it's fine. i really do have some chores to do. my alleged scumbuddies are jalapeno and paradox. if the entire town is voting me at any point, I can point out that clearly the scumteam is happy with this lynch if everyone including my alleged scumbuddies are voting me. but not pulling that card out until we need it.
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Tamien
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Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
okay, sounds good!
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jalapeno_dude
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Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
So I ran through some math for the "let Shoal get lynched" strategy. I assumed that none of us is currently possessed, and I assumed that none of us will be possessed tonight. (In the latter case, I'm pretty sure we just lose; in the former case we lose unless Shoal is the one who's possessed, and I'd need to work out the math separately for that case.) I assumed that our target tonight is anthusiasm and that I assign the kill to myself, and that modrony and anthusiasm believe Tamien to be Town unless either Tamien or Paradox dies. I also assumed that the demon gets a nightkill in addition to its possession, based on the deaths of wolffreak and pistachi0n.
Here are the outcomes:
So, if you assume each of the outcomes is equally likely, we have an (14.5+3/2)/20=80% chance of winning if none of us is possessed. That is *very slightly* better than the 71% chance I calculated for winning ignoring the demon if we out ourselves and force a 3-3 tie today. (But remember that taking the demon into account will probably increase that number, especially if we assume a Townie is currently possessed.)
Bottom line: DAMMIT I WISH WE KNEW HOW DEMONS WORKED.
Here are the outcomes:
table
There are 20 possible outcomes, depending on which Townie is currently possessed and who is killed at night. We win outright in 14.5 of these (where the .5 comes from the case in which modrony is possessed and I'm killed by the demon at night, which depends on whether the mafia kill or demon kill comes first; we definitely win if I kill anthusiasm before dying but it's a COINflip if anthusiasm stays alive). We lose outright in 2.5 of those (the .5 is the case in which Paradox is possessed and I'm killed by the demon before killing anthusiasm, leaving Tamien outnumbered and revealed as mafia). The remaining 3 cases are down to a COINflip.So, if you assume each of the outcomes is equally likely, we have an (14.5+3/2)/20=80% chance of winning if none of us is possessed. That is *very slightly* better than the 71% chance I calculated for winning ignoring the demon if we out ourselves and force a 3-3 tie today. (But remember that taking the demon into account will probably increase that number, especially if we assume a Townie is currently possessed.)
Bottom line: DAMMIT I WISH WE KNEW HOW DEMONS WORKED.
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jalapeno_dude
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Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
Here are the 3.5 cases where we win or force a COINflip with this strategy but might not if we force a tie and lose the COINflip:
michaelblume/Tamien/Paradox/anthusiasm = WIN (.5) -> LOSS
modrony/jalapeno_dude/Tamien/Paradox = WIN -> ???
modrony/Tamien/Paradox = WIN (.5) -> LOSS
modrony/Tamien/Paradox/anthusiasm = WIN (.5) -> LOSS
modrony/michaelblume/Tamien/Paradox = WIN -> LOSS
(The .5 means that they only happen half as often as the other ones, because they require a particular order of operations between the demon and mafia nightkills.)
If Shoal is alive, on the other hand, that means someone else from Town (or, potentially, the demon) is dead, and it also means the demon nightkill is more likely to hit one of us. Ugh, need to go do more math.
michaelblume/Tamien/Paradox/anthusiasm = WIN (.5) -> LOSS
modrony/jalapeno_dude/Tamien/Paradox = WIN -> ???
modrony/Tamien/Paradox = WIN (.5) -> LOSS
modrony/Tamien/Paradox/anthusiasm = WIN (.5) -> LOSS
modrony/michaelblume/Tamien/Paradox = WIN -> LOSS
(The .5 means that they only happen half as often as the other ones, because they require a particular order of operations between the demon and mafia nightkills.)
If Shoal is alive, on the other hand, that means someone else from Town (or, potentially, the demon) is dead, and it also means the demon nightkill is more likely to hit one of us. Ugh, need to go do more math.
Last edited by jalapeno_dude on Wed May 13, 2015 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
taking a shower is scummy wtf. :D
anyway I really think Paradox is going to be lynched today.
anyway I really think Paradox is going to be lynched today.
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Tamien
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Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
i'm really curious to see how they react when they finally catch up on the thread
Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
yeah. only lost 6 hp on habitrpg (for missing bedtime last night, and for skipping a few meals today). got everything else done at least.
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jalapeno_dude
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Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
Okay, here's the actual math for forcing a tie. I assume if we were doing this we'd want to attempt to lynch Paradox.
So we have an (11+4/2)/20 = 65% chance of winning if Shoal is killed by COINflip rather than lynch, but a (14.5+.5/2)/15=98.3% chance of winning if Shoal survives. (I gave us a 50% chance of winning the ??? stuff here, but that's not quite true--e.g in the modrony/Tamien/Shoal/anthusiasm scenario town must win 2 COINflips to win--so our odds are *very very slightly better*.
Hence the odds of winning with this strategy if none of us are possessed is (13/20 + 14.75/15)/2 = 49/60 = roughly 82%. WHY IS THIS DECISION SO HARD?????????
table
Again assuming that Shoal is not currently possessed, we win in 11/20 cases where we lose the COINflip, force another one in 4, and lose in 5. We win in 14.5 of the 15 cases where we win the COINflip (the sole exception is where michaelblume is possessed and kills me before I can nightkill anthusiasm, leaving modrony/Tamien/Shoal/anthusiasm in the last day).So we have an (11+4/2)/20 = 65% chance of winning if Shoal is killed by COINflip rather than lynch, but a (14.5+.5/2)/15=98.3% chance of winning if Shoal survives. (I gave us a 50% chance of winning the ??? stuff here, but that's not quite true--e.g in the modrony/Tamien/Shoal/anthusiasm scenario town must win 2 COINflips to win--so our odds are *very very slightly better*.
Hence the odds of winning with this strategy if none of us are possessed is (13/20 + 14.75/15)/2 = 49/60 = roughly 82%. WHY IS THIS DECISION SO HARD?????????
Last edited by jalapeno_dude on Wed May 13, 2015 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
how on earth does lynching scum give us a smaller chance of winning than lynching town?
it's late at night so maybe i'm misunderstanding you.
it's late at night so maybe i'm misunderstanding you.
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jalapeno_dude
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Re: Six-Day-Old Spam
Umm, because we're scum and we do better when Townies die? I'll blame this on the lateness. :pShoal wrote:how on earth does lynching scum give us a smaller chance of winning than lynching town?
it's late at night so maybe i'm misunderstanding you.