Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

[Tamien]

@modrony okay i'm getting really antsy and you kinda glossed over my post (maybe you didn't see it?) and i'm not really sure this counts as verifiable info and maybe i am doing something really stupid but it's LYLO and i'm just gonna cross my fingers and go for it

i'm ahin, i am a witch not a light, but i can apply protective potions to one person a night. night 1 i protected kappa, night 2 bss, and i've been protecting modrony since they roleclaimed leekath. i've been super skittish all game and trying to kindof lie low but i think now is probably the time to come forward

[anthusiasm]

Um, I have a thing that is similar to the "I am Iron Man" thing but doesn't prove I'm town and gives me powers I only get once in the game. I'm debating whether I should use it now or not, but I'm not sure when I'll get another chance.

[modrony]

Yeah Tamien is the one.
@Tamien I was trying really hard not to point at you.

[modrony]

@ anthusiasum
Personally I find you convincingly town anyway.
Go ahead thou if you want.

[Shoal]

are the powers cool powers? powers that will be useful to you today? it's okay to not elaborate if you don't want to yet.

In my game where I was tracker in lylo I didn't claim right at the start because I didn't have a guilty and I was hoping that maybe we could get scum during the day and I could survive another night and have one more chance at getting a guilty. I waited until someone was ready to vote me to claim: basically if I thought my powers would help us do right that day I wanted to use them that day (claim the info I had even though it wasn't very much) but if I thought there would be another chance later I wanted to do it later.

Only you know the nature of the powers. If you can find them on the mafia scum wiki sometimes there's advice on what to do with powers like that. it's really up to you.

[modrony]

my innocents list: modrony, Tamien, anhusiasum, michaelblume.

Tamien because she responded to the 'light' message that was meant for her.
I don't think she could have guessed I was talking to her if she wasn't.

[jalapeno_dude]

Aargh okay I have to go catch up on this thread. Skimmed quickly and I saw that Tamien roleclaimed and anthusiasm is flirting with it. Need time to process and reply to the overnight stuff.

[modrony]

I am going to go ahead and..
vote Shoal
..now

Sorry Shoal, you are really nice, but I think you are a nice mafia-person.

It's not that you were very suspicious,
(though I do think you dig for the truth less here than you did in effulgence),
(and I find the fatalism about vote chaos weird),
It's that I find my list of innocents really convincingly innocent.

[Tamien]

@modrony Sorry I didn't figure out what you were talking about in time. I wasn't even sure if you were talking to me at first (I didn't include a light on my listpost).

i think your innocents list looks good? i trust you for sure, i think michaelblume is pretty much confirmed town at this point, and between anthusiasm and Shoal, Shoal seems to be squirming a lot more than anthusiasm

so yeah

vote Shoal

[jalapeno_dude]

I don't know the story between Talyn and demons. Would someone care to elaborate on that?

Chapter 5 of Blood. That's also where all the stuff about language-dependent vs. language-independent mindspeech is discussed. I don't want to talk about it too much because I don't have a firm theory, but I can see this extrapolated in this game into something like "the demon can speak only if they're addressed first."

I think it is probable that michaelblume is town because futurevision is and claimed connection to michaelblume.
That makes it even more important that town reaches an unity of vote.

But as anthusiasm points out michaelblume is probably Hallai. If Ilen becomes anti-Town when Hallai dies, I'd expect, just from what I know about their characters, that Hallai *definitely* becomes anti-Town when Ilen dies. But of course michaelblume is inactive so maybe it doesn't matter.

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I would like to hear a concrete example of a situation where there are no votehammers and where votelocking would do more harm than good.
jalapeno_dude? You understand precommits. Any ideas?

I did not fully read the exchange between you and Shoal but I will do my best. TL/DR I think everyone has a strong incentive to defect and you can't enforce a contract.

First of all, let me explain why I said earlier everyone had an incentive to wait until the last minute before voting. (More precisely, I'm going to explain why no one has an incentive to be the first person to vote, which has the logical result that everyone waits until the last minute.) It should be clear why the Mafia do--if they vote for a Townie they give that Townie time to defend themselves. If the Townie successfully defends, the person who made the accusation looks really suspicious. Even if the accused person doesn't successfully defend, the accuser risks looking overzealous. And, more importantly, the person who made the accusation has differentiated themselves and now everyone it Town has a reason to vote for them specifically, when the Mafia would rather have votes split amongst themselves if they have to have people voting for them at all. So no Mafia member is going to vote first. (The only exception I can think of is if they can protect one of their number and cause a mislynch, which, at least ignoring the demon, is enough to win here. But they lost the Mafia!Light and it seems super unlikely there's more than one.)

Okay, so the mafia won't vote first. But by the same logic, a townie is not going to want to make an unproven accusation, because either (1) they'll accuse another townie and that person will defend and the first townie will look suspicious (at least to the one other townie who was accused) and that'll be enough to get them killed, or (2) the accused townie won't defend and they'll get lynched and the mafia will win, or (3) they'll accuse mafia and the mafia members will be able to work together to convince people the accused person isn't guilty, potentially resulting in the death of the accuser.

Obviously one exception to that is if you have concrete proof of someone's guilt, which I noted in my post earlier today.

Okay, now to talk about precommitments. Obviously the mafia is just going to break them (remember, they only need one mislynch to win at least neglecting the demon). But once the first broken precommitment appears, it would be stupid for everyone else not to take that into account. Even if that doesn't happen, if you know you're Town and there are 3 votes against you and you've voted for someone who no one else is voting for, you have a *huge* incentive to change your vote to at least arrange a tie (and it's arguably pro-Town to do so). And of course everyone can make this argument, even the mafia members.

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@anthusiasm: There is value to declaring yourself to be definitely Town. If you can't do that, you should only use your powers if they allow you to figure out faction alignments.

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EDIT: OH GOD EVERYONE IS VOTING