Day 3 Spam: Spam or Death

[jalapeno_dude]

I suspect this exchange is related:

If modrony is town and right, then one of the remaining people has a power so valuable that it would be best for that person to not make a listpost lest the mafia learn of the power.

Wrote a reply to this and then deleted it.
Just in case the mafia doesn't have Aestrix doing analysis.
I will say that this is not the only possible explanation.

Whether or not it is it seems worth speculating on.

[jalapeno_dude]

I find it hilarious that people who aren't us are voting for michaelblume. This only makes sense to do if you are anti-Town or actually think he's likely to be mafia, right? If a replacement can be found and he's pro-Town he at minimum provides another vote, and might turn out to have helpful powers. Even if there's no replacement it's at least another person the Mafia need to kill to win. Plus you're giving up a chance to townkill someone who could actually be guilty.

[Shoal]

that does look like it would fit. But is the spoiler the thing that he erased or is it something written to us to make us wonder and be confused.

Okay, either modrony sincerely believes that the mafia are going to resist clicking on spoilers, which I doubt, or modrony is not going to tell the truth 100% but will put red herrings. But what motivation could there be for that spoiler: if it is directed at us then it's there to make us think something, maybe to think that modrony will be protected and that we should try to kill someone else. If it is directed at an actual person then modrony believes somebody will understand it.

I think it is more risky to try to write something that nobody is to understand for the purposes of fucking with the mafia because it's too easy to give something away. but maybe i am wrong in thinking that it is risky since we can't seem to decipher than spoiler. :P


preview-edit: yeah, but they don't know he's not mafia, and lots of people are voting him now and that must mean he's guilty if half the mob thinks it, right? I mean, that's how mobs work, they're known for rational thinking. (I am using sarcasm directed at the town right now.)

I guess they're thinking of him as more of a dead weight than a warm body. For us, he's an easy target because he's not even playing so no one feels sorry for him. For them, he's a good target because he's not contributing and not scumhunting and not trying to find who is guilty or innocent. (Albeit the same could be said of most of the rest of the town)

[Shoal]

it's fun being mafia, though. As town I'm always stressed about how poorly I'm doing at reading people and how I'm letting everyone down. It feels like I'm playing against my wincon by participating because I'm more likely to lead people astray than anything. As mafia, at least, being wrong about who the mafia are is playing towards my wincon.

[Tamien]

it's funny, i'm totally the opposite. if it wouldn't break the game, i would totally want to always play town. i'm way more stressed out and less likely to participate when i'm scum, and tend to second-guess myself a lot more and probably end up presenting a much less coherent front as a result. i guess in general i'm a lot more anxious about whether i'm giving people the impression i mean to than about whether i am getting the correct impression of people?

also like, i have a really hard time keeping track of what town!me would think, and tend to just kindof give up, and i've noticed this has resulted in me reading what other people post a lot less closely - town!me cares a lot about what meaning can be derived from what other people say, but scum!me has already made up her mind and is just looking for anything she can use to plausibly justify those positions, and so losing track of town!me means that i stop caring enough to read deeply into anything or put much mental effort into analyzing people's posts.

[pistachi0n]

I like being mafia because I have a seeeecret.

Townies are probably voting for michaelblume because it's an easy choice and so far nobody has called it suspicious.

[pistachi0n]

Oh, and Tamien, don't forget we probably aren't the only scum! So it still matters what meaning can be derived from other people's posts.

[Tamien]

Yeah, realizing that actually really bumped up me degree of engagement with other peoples' posts! Probably still not as much as I should, but I am definitely more vigilant now that I know town is not the only danger to us.

[jalapeno_dude]

Okay, I want to temporarily assume that modrony has been telling the truth starting from their roleclaim. Given that, what can we conclude?

In the roleclaim itself:

I am a TRACKER. I can 'hear' where a single person goes each night.
I do not think it's wise to share my current info as it will help mafia efforts.

If required I will disclose a single name and a night when they did nothing.
The other name I will rather get lynched than to reveal. It is not like this is a very useful power and that one could be.

Modrony investigated two people. One wasn't doing something. One was, and modrony concluded that what they were doing was both pro-town and potentially very useful.

In the spoilered post:

@Light: I may well be wrong about who you are or about any of this.
Just in case I happen to be right it might be worthwhile to look at the list of the relevant person and figure out why I said this.
Very sorry I can't be more clear. I don't want to give anything away.
If I am wrong about your identity this probably means nothing so take it with a huge grain of salt.
Do feel free to ignore if you aren't up to this.

Modrony is addressing someone as "light." If they were telling the truth about their powers in the roleclaim quoted above, they could not have figured this out from their power. They must therefore have concluded it based on reading other people's rolelists. The only people who mentioned lights in their rolelists were anthusiasm, Paradox, and Shoal. Shoal did nothing during either of the nights. Therefore modrony observed either anthusiasm or Paradox doing something during one of the nights and interpreted it as lighty stuff.

Here is one possible interpretation of "Just in case I happen to be right it might be worthwhile to look at the list of the relevant person and figure out why I said this.": the "relevant person" is the person modrony saw anthusiasm/Paradox targeting (this is consistent with what a Tracker usually does). Modrony is warning this person to look at the rolelist of the person they targeted, presumably because modrony thinks based on this list they are not pro-Town. I read through everyone's rolelists and the only one thing that jumps out at me based on it is Tamien's description of demons, which gave a detailed model of demons before there existence in the game was detailed, but this is just a gut feeling I have with no evidence behind it.

[pistachi0n]

I don't know how she'd know someone is a light based on who they targeted though. Assuming she's telling the truth, it sounds like she asks Alicorn "who did x target" and Alicorn says "x targeted y" or "x targeted nobody." The only way to tell what the action does is if y is dead the next morning.

Edit: possibly other ways, I can't think of anything though.