Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

[Alphabeta]

If you can't do that for some unfathomable reason, vote for me. I can take it.

Okay, I'm going to guess that demon-posessed people automatically lose if they admit that they are, and have the objective of getting the demon killed with them. So I say we kill modrony.

I can't be certain of my guess here, but it seems to fit the facts.

[modrony]

Oh for gods sake.
This is not the case.

[modrony]

Making up mechanics and then drawing conclusions based on "what if it were true" is not a good strategy!

[Alphabeta]

Alright, guess I'm wrong about that. Withdraw vote.

[anthusiasm]

Having thought about it, I'm pretty sure list posts aren't responsible for power roles being targeted.

If I recall correctly, DanielH didn't make a list post, and I'm having a hard time trying to think of a way someone could've divined DanielH's role from everyone else's spec. Then, yesterday, PDV and wolffreak roleclaimed. We tried to kill tau and he lost a form, so the Mafia knew he was a dragon and probably a power role, and at the very least would go down on the first try.

I'm not saying there's absolutely no problems with list posts, but I think saying that list posts are the reason so many power roles have fallen thus far is jumping to conclusions.

[Shoal]

I don't see the point in tying the hands of my future self, but it seems to be some kind of important cultural thing for a lot of people here but maybe it was a misstep to try to follow along with a thing that I don't understand. Maybe someone can explain it to me what the point of precommitting to ignore 6 pages of posts is.

I'm neither willing nor qualified to write a whole thing on this (though someone else is welcome to if they want), but the point of precommitment is *precisely* to tie the hands of your future self. You are signalling precisely that you value the goal (in this case getting everyone to write listposts) enough to sacrifice some of your future self's options (in this case, immediately voting for the person you find most suspicious). You do this in public both because writing it down explicitly encourages you to keep your promise (because people generally find it awkward to lie to other peoples' faces) and, more importantly, because it gets other people to police your promise for you. This is why I am explicitly naming and shaming people. Making a vow and not keeping it marks you out as untrustworthy, much more so than if you hadn't made the vow in the first place. This is the price you have to pay for breaking your commitment, and you shouldn't be surprised if people find you significantly more suspicious going forward.

ok, well i interpreted it to just mean "I intend". The word "precommittment" doesn't have any religious significance for me. I won't use it in the future. i can't think of many situations in which it would be good to tie the hands of my future self. Past me is dumb. What I wrote at the time was that i would vote a certain way unless stuff happened to make me prefer to vote differently and lo and behold stuff happened. I don't know which of you is right. I don't see how being willing to keep an openmind and taking a stance against prematurely closing it to new information is untrustworthy.

If modrony is town and right, then one of the remaining people has a power so valuable that it would be best for that person to not make a listpost lest the mafia learn of the power. But there are only a couple people who haven't made listposts so it's not that hard for them to narrow it down whether or not they make a listpost. If modrony is mafia then maybe one of the people who didn't make listposts is mafia and modrony is trying to protect them. If modrony is town but incorrect, then what modrony has written is what modrony sincerely believes about the best strategy for the town to take and we should consider that or discuss it and make up our own minds.

If jalapeno is town and right, then maybe jalapeno has other reasons to suspect the listpost people and the listpost thing is a good excuse and if we listen to him we may get a mafia lynch out of it, or jalapeno sincerely believes that the town will be harmed by not being able to figure out what powers a person had after they died and is correct about this. If jalapeno is mafia then jalapeno thinks he can use the listposts for mafia purposes. If jalapeno is town but incorrect then everything I said about modrony being town and right.

[modrony]

Thank you Shoal :)

If modrony is town and right, then one of the remaining people has a power so valuable that it would be best for that person to not make a listpost lest the mafia learn of the power.

Wrote a reply to this and then deleted it.
Just in case the mafia doesn't have Aestrix doing analysis.
I will say that this is not the only possible explanation.

But there are only a couple people who haven't made listposts so it's not that hard for them to narrow it down whether or not they make a listpost. If modrony is mafia then maybe one of the people who didn't make listposts is mafia and modrony is trying to protect them.

In this situation I would simply make his list for him. I do believe I could. I would have done that yesterday.
It's likely that the mafia has safeclaims. I could simply include that.

I consider it somewhat likely that one of the Unlisted is mafia, based on how mafia tends to divide themselves among different groupings in normal games.
(This is theoretical as I haven't played any normal games, only read some theory)

If modrony is town but incorrect, then what modrony has written is what modrony sincerely believes about the best strategy for the town to take and we should consider that or discuss it and make up our own minds.

I would not have claimed if this wasn't the case.
It is certainly possible that I am wrong. I am by no means unfailing.

I did succumb to bystander apathy on this list thing, thinking I could trust someone with less to hide to rise against it.
Even if I didn't have much myself.
I do consider this a personal failing on my part.

[Shoal]

we'll all do better next game, and the game after that. I think we're already doing better than last time but it's too soon to tell. it's hard to speak up sometimes, especially when sticking your neck out can get you mislynched by an overeager town.

That's a good point about how mafia tend to split up. I think that, combined with the trouble Alicorn seems to be having with recruiting a replacement for Michael, and the knowledge that if we err that we have some time left (if there are 5 mafia then they can win when there are only 5 townspeople left because at that point they can control the lynches openly). It's still early enough in the game that we have some wiggle room.

Vote: michaelblume

[Alphabeta]

Hm... yeah, if michaelblume doesn't want to play anymore, we might as well oblige him. Kill michaelblume.

[pistachi0n]

Keeping vote on michaelblume, but I do plan to unvote if a replacementis found.

Alicorn, if you find a replacement before the end of the day, will you extend today 24 hours so we don't have a last minute voting crisis?