I agree with jalapeno_dude's reasoning about people without listposts.
I commit to voting for someone who has not posted a listpost, assuming that is true of anyone at the end of the day. I will change my mind if changing my mind becomes obviously a good idea, but only if I have good reasoning that I can actually explain out loud. Of course if everyone posts listposts I'll have to pick who I vote for based on other criteria.
Today seems to be a bad brain day in general for me, and there's no telling if I will be running any better brain by game-nightfall, so having to explain my reasoning will probably help me make better decisions.
2 of the people are on your suspicions list anyway so you might as well start with one of those. (I'm only saying this because I'm pretty sure you meant futurevision who is also in 1st place on /my/ list and is part of why I agreed to this thing.) You don't have to unvote futurevision if you don't want to, but you can start with her because you find her most suspicious and she doesn't have a list post.
Kappa wrote:I will change my mind if changing my mind becomes obviously a good idea, but only if I have good reasoning that I can actually explain out loud.
I think this is also a good thing for everyone to say in italics (or whatever) at some point, but let's wait and see if the listpost pressure works first. :p
1. Modrony (4: Weird vote changing and last minute chaos with late reveal scheme. Seems to have a lot of social power?
2. Michaelblume (3: Nonvoting both days without explanation- (I think?)) and Futurevision (3: Lurking and abstention)
3. Anthusiasm (1: Voted michaelblume rather than anyone with a chance of dying?) Kappa (1: Really powerful and smart)
?: People I haven't really formed suspicions or anti-suspicions about: jalapeno_dude, Paradox, pistachi0n, Shoal, Tamien, Tulip
precommitment:
It's useful for everyone to have a list.
Some are useful, some are just camouflage.
We want people to have them, but it takes effort to make a passable one. People don't like effort. They won't make it if it doesn't benefit them.
situation 1:
people are people and do not precommit.
some people make lists, some don't.
We end the day with less useful list system.
We lynch someone.
situation 2:
people precommit
people make lists because now they have to or they will lose the game.
End the day with lynching a person with a list. Hopefully.
The benefit comes before we have to make the sub-optimal choice, but if we judge that the benefit is greater than the choice is bad then it is a choice we should take.
Today, I fear that AB wont make a list. Even if it loses him the game. I fear my preferred candidate will make a list.
For me, the benefit of the lists doesn't outweigh the chance to lynch the person I am currently suspecting.
If I was less sure, it would.
I will not make a precommit I do not intend to keep in all circumstances nor one with a loophole that allows me to do what I want in the end anyway.
I am not committing to vote for Alphabeta. I am committing to voting for futurevision, michaelblume, and anthusiasum in that order. If all of them make listposts, I will re-evaluate my suspicions. The reason I am excluding Alphabeta from my committment is because he was confirmed town by BSS, which is a risky gambit if they are scum that I think BSS in particular is unlikely to make.
@pistachi0n That is an excellent idea.
It would still be dishonest of me to make that vow as I will vote for my candidate regardless of list status.
If their defence isn't really, really good.
I am a little worried about making this commitment (seriously I am not sure what the difference is between committing and precommitting?) because I think there's a pretty good chance Alphabeta has a good reason to not make a list post, and so I am worried other people would also have good reasons?
Like if something was really obviously an unusual power for people to speculate a character has, or if there aren't many characters one person could plausibly be due to other circumstances so there isn't much available camouflage.
But I don't have a better idea so I guess I commit to vote for futurevision, michaelblume, or anthusiasm, in that order, and remove them from the commitment pool if they make list posts. If they all make list posts, I will go with whoever I am most suspicious of out of all the people.
I'm fine with the precommitments y'all are making; my top two suspects don't have listposts and I will happily bandwagon either of them. Spots 3 and 4 on my list are occupied by "they keep saying stuff that sounds really reasonable and yet my gut keeps telling me they are suspicious" and are probably the people who have moved up and down on my list the most. Then there is another person who has not made a listpost but generally seems to be posting in a way that I read as protown. Below that is "undifferentiated middle of the suspiciousness pack in vague handwavey order of suspiciousness". Alphabeta relatively high among these because my gut feelings keep telling me he is *really suspicious* and I keep having to tell them that I trust BSS would not lie to us. (I would *really like* some more proof of Alpha's towniness, but I'll live, I guess.) Then towards the bottom are people with trustworthy roleclaims and myself.
