Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

[modrony]

There is a day left. It's past time to start voting.
vote MTC

[Kappa]

On reflection and considering everyone else's suspicion lists and their behaviour today, I think MTC and wolffreak are my top picks for suspicious person. modrony voted MTC, so I'll vote wolffreak for now and see where everyone else falls out.

[modrony]

I do feel 24 hours is too short a time for this and I am partly responsible for that.
In the future I will prepare suspicions during the night, adjust them in the morning and vote at first opportunity after noon.

[pistachi0n]

I'm going to vote tau because his lurkiness is more suspicious to me than wolffreak's. I'm mildly suspicious of wolffreak, but right now I think it's more likely that she's a confused newbie. I disagree that Tau being a killer last game means he can't be a killer this game. Alicorn's too smart to guarantee that nobody gets a similar role twice, that would make narrowing possible killers down far too easy. People's previous roles are not indicative of either guilt or innocence.

[anthusiasm]

Suspicions: The two people I'm most suspicious of are michaelblume and wolffreak. Wolffreak because lurking, michaelblume because he didn't vote for Aestrix and I think, being the spouse of the God, he is likely to have gotten an important role.

[tau]

discussions

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@Kappa:
Two things -- first, I think you are either overestimating how good I am at this, or overestimating in which areas I am good at things. Last game I was good at figuring out what was happening, and good planning out things with respect to mechanics. In terms of doing the right things when talking to people... well I mostly didn't talk last game and when I did drew attention to me and got me killed. And I'm pretty sure what's going on here is in the second category and not the first -- so I don't think it's correct that you're finding me more suspicious than you would otherwise when I make mistakes in that area.

Second, here's what happened with the list post. Someone proposed we do speculation. I thought to myself "oh, that's a good idea, since I'm terribly confused how most of the people in Elcenia turn into mafia powers, we should totally do this". So I started doing it. I'd just re-read summons, so I went back through and skimmed all of summons, in order, looking for vaguely important characters, and writing them down in the order in which they appeared -- which you can see because they are in approximately order of appearance (I did decide to skip some characters that I knew were important characters later because I hadn't re-read those parts yet and didn't remember them well enough to make guesses). So the post was originally intended as a speculation post. It took me a few hours to actually go through and re-skim and write up the thing, partly because I was parallelizing with doing other things, partly because summons is pretty long and I ended up reading some parts instead of skimming. By the time I was done, you'd posted your thing about listposts. And by then I just wanted to post the work I had done. So I went and checked and it was close enough to what you wanted -- various powers and vanillas in there, enough to obfuscate who I was, my power described assuming I have one, and decided, because it was a lot of work and I really did not want to have to do another one, to post this as speculation and listpost and be done with it.
And then later on apparently no one realized that it was supposed to be my listpost, but since it was already thought of in my mind as my listpost I responded with "hey, this is mine" when you said you didn't have one from me, without thinking about it in much detail. Since apparently no one was clear on this, I probably could have gotten away with writing another one -- though I still think it might have been dangerous because people could compare the two and use their overlap to figure things out. Which is what we don't want. But in any case, I responded without thinking, and that is why things happened as they did. I realize this was not the most optimal way for it to have gone -- but it is good enough. And in any case, I think if I were a killer I probably would have been more careful to do the right thing, to blend in and look like town, than I spent here. I would have actually thought through the "wait no this is my listpost" message I sent you, rather than just sending it. And I wouldn't have minded writing a second one -- since indeed, I wouldn't have to worry about the killers/mafia figuring things out about me from the intersection of the lists.

@pistachi0n:
We were talking about information theory and mathy things! I enjoy talking about that stuff and it's important to be correct with such things, I had to make sure we did it right... for like OCD reasons.
As for the abstention -- I didn't do procedure correctly that time around, and didn't want to vote with biased results -- I didn't want to jump on the bandwagon the way everyone else was doing. So I abstained, and let everyone know (I thought) that that was why I was abstaining -- if I were trying not to stand out I would have probably just continued to be silent. And I'm still pretty sure that was the right choice, given what I knew -- the point of the thing is to make unbiased votes based on suspicion, and my suspicions were colored by what other people had written. And obviously, I moved to save Aestrix when it became necessary to do so, since I was assuming that the mafia would have to kill her that night, and use up their first kill on her. I was apparently very wrong, unfortunately, since it would be better if we'd lynched her anyways and found out her identity.
And I'm really confused about what you mean by "lurkiness". I've been posting less than some people who have been posting a lot, yes. But I'm pretty sure I haven't been posting anywhere near the least among people. What specifically is the problem with me and not, say, Tulip or futurevision or mike, for instance? Or you, for that matter? I don't mean it as accusation -- I'm just confused why you're singling out specifically me.

[Tulip]

@Tulip. Leave your name out if you are normal and include no normals.
We have no reason to search for clues from you if you have no powers.
That way you can 'include' arbitrary number of normals

Alright, I can do it that way too. In that case, I might go up to 7 normal powers and 3 unusuals, just to pad out the list a bit more.

Anyway, here are a couple Aestrix-related thoughts I had while trying to figure out if there was anyone worth being suspicious of:

• Did any Elcenia characters ever go into Witness Protection canonically? If so, which faction were they being protected from? We may be able to find out what faction the Mafia are loreways, and thereby possibly guess at their powers, if the answer here is more interesting than "no". Of course, this is all moot if it turns out to actually be a mafia power behind it, like I still vaguely suspect.
• We should probably comb over Aestrix's posts in more detail than we have been. Like, we did a pretty good job at combing over her last-minute reveal post, but we've mostly been ignoring her earlier posts, despite that if she's following last game's patterns, she's probably left hints of some sort scattered around her posts. Here are the ones I personally found most likely to lead somewhere, although there may be others that I've missed:

quotes

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"Assuming I can't convince a no lynch, I think that the most useful thing we can do is to poke at our lurkers with a stick."
"I think that last game there was a high power role percentage, and that it's likely that there will be a lot of power roles here, too."
"I suspect half of the people trying to kill me haven't even thought about why, they just don't have anyone else that's convenient to kill."
"That is, if no one's talking, the mafia doesn't need to."

[pistachi0n]

Response to tau

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[quote=tau]What specifically is the problem with me and not, say, Tulip or futurevision or mike, for instance? Or you, for that matter? I don't mean it as accusation -- I'm just confused why you're singling out specifically me.[/quote]

I'm suspicious of futurevision too for the same reasons. Your explicit abstention seems slighly scummier than not voting at all, though, because it shows that you took the time to read the forum and still didn't want to cast a vote, while not voting could mean either lurking or being too busy to log on and vote. Other people didn't follow the rules Kappa and Modrony laid out and voted anyway.

I'm not as suspicious of michaelblume. Last game, he didn't post much. Turned out he was a pro-town power role. My read on him is "that's just the way he is."

I wish Tulip were lurking less, but nothing she's said when she has posted struck me as suspicious. That doesn't mean she's innocent, but I've gotten more guilty vibes off of your post than hers.

[Kappa]

As far as I can remember, witness protection is not a thing that happens in any Elcenia story.

Also, I think that the spoilering can stop once we move into the open voting phase.

[modrony]

What about kidnapping?
She might be getting tortured somewhere.