Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

[modrony]

You are most likely right.
I was mostly kidding thou I will admit that the idea isn't entirely without appeal.
I do get that it isn't likely to work with actual humans (that aren't me).

[Kappa]

This page's countdown:

[modrony]

All the suspicions to date. Hopefully to make reading easier.
Please inform me if I missed any.

suspicions

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I think people who adopted early to idea-conservation yet expressed no interest before Aestrix was chosen randomly are suspicious.
Whether Aestrix is mafia or not, it seems likely that the mafia thought she was. Adopting to this method did almost save Aestrix.
I count this as BSS, MTC, Alphabeta(somewhat) and pistachi0n.

I count BSS and AB as town with high probability based on declaration by BSS that would be suicidal for a mafia member to make.

MTC also tried to move discussion from random voting to the lists, falsely presenting them as mutually exclusive or filling the same function.
This happened on page 8 just after Aestrix was chosen on page 7.

pistachi0n was on my list yesterday for being overconfident about uninformativeness of lists. Perhaps encouraging people to make them in a slapdash fashion?

Thus, my most suspicious person is MTC with pistachi0n coming as second.

Suspicions

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• Alphabeta still heads my suspicion list for the reasons stated yesterday, but I accept that he is probably not evil.
• PlainDealingVillain is my runner-up, for the fact that he seems to state things as fact without giving evidence or a chain of reasoning, e.g. "there will be three deaths per day-night cycle" (although that doesn't seem to be happening so far) and "there is no danger of calling the day early".
• tau is my third pick, because I think from how he played last game, tau should be too smart to have done the listpost this badly, and it's more plausible to me that he halfassed it because he didn't really have to hide a true role in there than that he made a mistake for some other reason.

Suspicions

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I'm suspicious of Tau for his inactivity. Wolffreak has been less active too, but I'm less suspicious because he's new. He said a few things about the nature of RNGs when the thread first open, then said he was going to explicitly abstain from voting. I don't like explicit abstention It makes me think you're trying way too hard to not stand out. Granted, Tau didn't explicitly abstain in the end, when Aestrix said she was the traitor at the last minute, he changed his vote to no lynch.

I'm not bothered that he changed his vote to no lynch, it was a vote for the category that could get more votes than Aestrix. My problem is his unwillingness to cast a vote at all before something very obvious came up.

Suspicions

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My main suspicions at the moment are fairly vague ones, easily overridden by anything more obviously suspicious. My main vague suspicions:
1. Those who haven’t posted listposts. (I don’t buy the “I’m not familiar enough with the canon” excuse, several acceptable workarounds to that have been suggested and/or used.)
2. Those who voted no lynch on day 1, especially if they never voted for anything else. (I’m firmly of the opinion that actually lynching someone on day 1 is beneficial to town.)
3. Those who didn’t vote on day 1 (similar reason to above).
These lists provide a few suspicious players, especially if I combine the criteria, so if nothing significant changes I plan to vote for a player who meets both of my first two criteria (obviously no‐one can meet all 3).


The above was all written before I looked into anyone’s spoiler boxes. Now that I have, I see that modrony has named me as the most suspicious. I will defend myself with a full role claim if it looks like I’ll need to. I’m also going to point out, modrony, that I specifically stated that I was trying not to present those two strategies as mutually exclusive (I may have referred to it in different terms, but I meant the same thing). The timing is an interesting coincidence that I didn’t notice before, and not something I can reasonably argue against, but as I said, I am willing make a full role claim to defend myself if I need to.

Suspicions

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I think I am most suspicious of modrony for their weird voting patterns at the end of the day yesterday, and PlainDealingVillian for making the strange "3 kills a cycle" pronouncement on day one -- though unless you count Aestrix this hasn't actually happened, and for continuing to not post much. And I'm also somewhat suspicious of Alphabeta for continuing to act in a rather strange manner even today, though BSS's claim is a bit of a strange thing to pull if it wasn't actually true, so Alpha is probably town. And I'm slightly suspicious of everyone who voted for Aestrix, because Aestrix told us to pay attention to the votes as though it meant something, and I think that Aestrix was likely telling us the truth.

My Current Suspicions

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PlainDealingVillain
tau
MTC
Alphabeta
wolffreak567
Tulip
BlueSkySprite
pistachi0n
kappa
michaelblume
futurevision
Paradox
Shoal
modrony
anthusiasm
jalapeno_dude
Tamien

suspicions

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I'm a tad suspicious of modrony, since it was apparently their idea to do this scheme back when in day 1 when it was actively counterproductive and based on things like writing voice and avatar. Of course, the fact that the definitely-murdered person was a powered person who didn't participate in the list scheme also seems indicative of something, but it's entirely possible I'm just taking the "tried to make me put effort into things" aspect of it too personally. Still, don't take this too seriously - I don't have anything more solid than this to back it up.

Suspicions not really in any particular order

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I'm still suspicious of Alpha but it probably is just a personality thing with him. But I don't think BSS in particular would gambit like that as mafia. She's intelligent enough to do so but she also seemed a bit shy and like her personality would tend more towards not making her stick out and call attention to herself if she was mafia.

Man, I really hope Kappa's on our side. She's really taken control of the town. which is good, because he's smart, and now that we've lost Aestrix AND Daniel we should we cling to the organised as hard as we can.

also modrony with voting no lynch and then trying to vote for wolffreak instead which would have put Aestrix back in danger of THE COIN. I think I'll be a little more suspicious of him if wolffreak is no longer in his suspicions list.

I'd still like to see more activity from wolffreak but it's understandable to be new and a bit overwhelmed. I'm not suspicious about her having trouble with spoiler-boxes, though. The syntax for these things is different on every site I use and I have to preview 3-4 times before I get it right. ugh. Uh, but that's not about wolffreak. I don't think having a life outside of this forum is indicative of her role pm. Definitely recommend taking little notes as she goes along because if she thinks it's bad rereading 34 pages it's only going to get worse as time goes on. ideally the notes should not be so detailed as to become a complete unfun headache that sucks the joy out of participating in the thread but should contain enough information or at least links to posts (clicking the post title of each post can get you the direct link) that you don't have to do too much rereading. Also at the bottom there's a "sort by" thing that lets you sort by author and that can be a good way to quickly get an idea of how much someone's contributed.

My Suspicions as Promised. Yes, I know I just said that, but apparently the spoiler-box tag requires a name argument to function correctly.

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Full disclosure: I read people's spoilered suspicions as they were posted. Sorry, I was physically unable to help myself. Well, more accurately I was *able* to help myself if I really wanted to, but I only have a finite store of willpower per day and I am not going to expend any of it on resisting clicking the + button on posts in a play-by-post mafia game. So actually, I guess I am not sorry. Hmm, something about spoiler boxes seems to make me get really rambly.

...anyway, the point is that you should not take my suspicions as entirely independent of everyone else's. But you really shouldn't take anyone else's to be independent except whoever posted first, because I'm like 95% sure that the vast majority of other players in the game *also* read other people's suspicions before posting their own.

Regardless:

-I stand by my earlier statements about Alphabeta. I therefore find BSS and Alphabeta significantly less suspicious than the average player in this game.

-I have noticed a couple of players making statements or taking actions that they did not explain and seem to depend on non-public information. In particular:
-wolffreak567 stated that she did not find Aestrix or MTC (and only these two) to be suspicious. She did not explain further. I note that MTC voted against Aestrix, so this lack of suspicion does not seem to have been reciprocated.
-modrony switched from no lynch to wolffreak567 (and attempted to switch back, but failed) just before the deadline. The switching to no lynch is understandable given the Aestrix stuff, but the switch to wolffreak567 was not explained. I would like to see an explanation of this sequence of events from them.

Last game people got angry at me for "trying to seek out information-gathering players" (or something like that). So I anticipate people getting annoyed at me for pointing that wolffreak567 and modrony seem to have additional information beyond what Town has. However, if we believe Aestrix there are five mafia members (who would have this extra information if they have a communication channel, or, like Aestrix herself, just know each other's identities), and it seems unlikely to me that there are that many non-mafia players with access to inside information, especially with access to inside information on the first day. I therefore find these two more suspicious than the average player in this game.

[modrony]

Chronological order, forgot to say.

[Shoal]

<3 for the countdown fairy
<3 for the putting everything on one page where it's easy to read fairy

[Kappa]

<3 for fairy appreciation

Regarding the contents of MTC's spoilerbox:

I feel like offering to defend oneself with a roleclaim is a mildly suspicious action in itself, since we all know by now that mafia members get false claims and last game's scum power roles made a moderately effective effort to disguise themselves as town power roles when it came down to it. But perhaps I am just unduly paranoid. Then again, this is Mafia. How much paranoia do you need before it's undue?

[Alphabeta]

I think figuring out how much paranoia you need is what it means to be good at this game. But the mods might not be doing that this game.

[Shoal]

why are we using the ugly spoilers intead of the boxy ones?

boxy spoiler

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i think some amount of paranoia is necessary but it's possible to go too far. i'm not sure how far is too far but somewhere beyond that point is the point where every little thing looks like a lie

[Tulip]

suspicions

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I've got nothing. My suspicion-generation engine runs almost entirely on suspicious-looking actions, rather than social reading, because I'm kind of lousy at reading people. Unlike yesterday, though, today doesn't have any overtly suspicious actions. The most suspicious thing that happened was modrony's weird voting hiccup right at the end yesterday, and that comes across to me as almost certainly the result of tab confusion or the like, rather than maliciousness.

And while I haven't actually got it fully written out yet, here's my plan for a reasonably secure listpost: I'm going to list ten names, none of which overlap in first letter of the alphabet, of which four will be normal villagers, four will be common power-roles, and two will be unusual power-roles. Hopefully, an arrangement as structured as this will prevent there from being any human-findable hints as to which role on the list I am. But I still need to pick out names and, where applicable, reasonably appropriate powers to the names.

[modrony]

@Tulip. Leave your name out if you are normal and include no normals.
We have no reason to search for clues from you if you have no powers.
That way you can 'include' arbitrary number of normals

not sure if this box serves a point at this point of day

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Alphabeta: I believe BSS. Will not vote for him.

PlainDealingVillain:
Agreed with 3 deaths/day prediction being weird. Not sure it's indicative of mafia exactly.

tau:
Still believe it's unlikely he is a killer because he was one last game.
Abstention makes one stand out more, not less. tau knows this.
It makes me suspect him less, not more. I do agree that it is the wrong choice, but people make those.

wolffreak:
Suspicious on grounds of lurking and making a statement about Aestrix and MTC.
BSS like reasoning may apply in the future if they explain further.

MTC:
Listed no names in the spoiler.
It makes me think the purpose of the thing is to reply to my spoiler. A spoiler he wasn't supposed to read.
People do have lives and poor impulse control, but it is only one possible explanation.
Other is that he is trying to fly under the radar.
My top pick before and the post doesn't make things better.

modrony:
I believe I explained the voting thing. I am not at my best under pressure to do things quickly.
@Shoal wolffreak did drop from my suspects. Because I had better ones. They are still suspect thou.

Aestrix-voters:
I believe that I was among this crowd at the time of pronouncement and I know I'm town. There are many things 'pay attention to votes' can mean.
Aestrix did post this:

Aestrix: 4 (anthusiasm, DanielH, jalapeno_dude, PlainDealingVillain)
Alphabeta: 6 (Kappa, michaelblume, modrony, Shoal, Tamien, Tulip)
No lynch: 5 (Aestrix, Alphabeta, BlueSkySprite, pistachi0n, wolffreak567)

And later corrected, moving pistachi0n to AB lynchers.

As stated, I am not entirely convinced of Aestrix trustworthiness because she claimed game-breakage.
5 killers is a lot for this amount of players.