Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

[jalapeno_dude]

Guys, you're missing the point of random numbers. You have to precommit to using a particular random number *before* you see what it is. Random.org allows you to do this by providing "pregenerated randomization", see here. For example, here is the random integer between 1 and 19 generated today (look at the URL to see this). It's 4, but this is a bad number to use and I'm not even going to look up who that corresponds to. Why? Because my choice of the integer generated today was arbitrary. I could just as well have used the equivalent integer generated yesterday, which is 7, etc, etc. And if I wanted to cast suspicion on someone specific, I'd just have to find some previous date that corresponded to their number. This is a problem.

What's the solution? To instead vote for the person corresponding to the random number generated *tomorrow*, which is here. Right now the page reads "Error: No randomization exists for that date", but once midnight (UTC, I think?) rolls around there will be a number here, and I can't have manipulated it.

[anthusiasm]

I don't have anything to say about who to kill right now, but it's time for another episode of Anthusiasm's Avatar Woes!

I am trying to do the thing Aestrix said but for some reason it is not working for me.

I was inspired by Shoal's "picture of a duck" comment and am now looking for a small enough image of Ahiru from Princess Tutu. If any of you are sufficiently bothered by my lack of an avatar that you are willing to help me look, I would appreciate that.

[modrony]

I don't think the odd number of players is relevant to what we should do today.
We had a night with no death last game and it is only by freak chance that we didn't have double-death nights.

@ jalapeno: Thank you <3
Though I don't think they are actually trying to get the 'random people' lynched.
They are just establishing their credentials.

[BlueSkySprite]

I would like to point out that my role claim probably wouldn't have saved me because I made it after I was nominated for dying.

Waiting for more time to pass seems like a bad idea. What if everyone posts a date they like and we average those and find the random number for that day of last year. Maybe rounded to the nearest even number if necessary?

[Shoal]

I was inspired by Shoal's "picture of a duck" comment and am now looking for a small enough image of Ahiru from Princess Tutu. If any of you are sufficiently bothered by my lack of an avatar that you are willing to help me look, I would appreciate that.

I don't know what that is so hopefully i googled the right thing, but if this is right then you could try this image. I resized it for you:

[jalapeno_dude]

I would like to point out that my role claim probably wouldn't have saved me because I made it after I was nominated for dying.

Waiting for more time to pass seems like a bad idea. What if everyone posts a date they like and we average those and find the random number for that day of last year. Maybe rounded to the nearest even number if necessary?

Because then people can influence the outcome by picking dates. That is *precisely* what we're trying to avoid.

Also, I don't understand why you want to decide so quickly. We have 72 hours to make our decision, and it's in our interest to use data from as many of them as possible.

[Shoal]

I would like to point out that my role claim probably wouldn't have saved me because I made it after I was nominated for dying.

Waiting for more time to pass seems like a bad idea. What if everyone posts a date they like and we average those and find the random number for that day of last year. Maybe rounded to the nearest even number if necessary?

The average of a bunch of dates is going to be sometime in June probably

[Kappa]

I don't think I'm missing the point of random numbers.

I openly acknowledge that nobody has anything better than my word to go on for the randomness of my numbers. But I know they're random. And I don't know how to procure a URL like the one you just did, and when people were using that method early last game, I as a spectator was confused by how it worked. So in the absence of a well-explained method for generating verified random numbers such as the one you propose, I at least know that my own random vote really is random (and pistachi0n knows the same about hers, unless she's lying I guess). Other people can make their own decisions about whether or not they want to believe me.

The point of random numbers is to find some way to cast a vote in the absence of good information that at least has better odds of catching a killer than twiddling our thumbs as we wait patiently for them to murder us all. My unverified random vote fulfills that purpose. The point of verified random numbers is to achieve an unbiased decision process that everyone can tell for sure is unbiased. My unverified random vote obviously can't do that.

If you meant to explain how your proposed method for generating verified random numbers works, I don't think you did a stellar job, but I think I might understand it well enough to use it. I tentatively expect to switch my vote to that person when the time comes. (Unless it's me, in which case I agree that voting for me is strategically sound for the rest of you but I'm still not going to do it.) But I'm not coming down firmly on that just yet because I'm grumpy about being told I missed the point. (This is stragetically unsound of me, but I am a human with feelings.)

[Aestrix]

Anthusiasm: I have done that thing, I wasn't sure if you wanted the duck version of her or the human version, so I went duck because Shoal went human. Here you are, resized to 100 x 100:



Direct link: (Copy THIS and put it in the link off-site space) http://i.imgur.com/JEIziYw.jpg

[anthusiasm]

@Shoal and Aestrix, thanks so much! :D

modrony's idea about writing names on slips of paper appeals to me but I'm not sure how effective it would actually be?