Effulgence Mafia Game Thread

[anthusiasm]

I have not been following the discussion super well because I have been doing homework all day. I still think Paradox is more likely to be the killer than thatwasademo because thatwasademo's confusion about his powers seemed genuine to me. I'm going to vote Paradox unless someone comes up with a really compelling argument for thatwasademo. If Paradox turns out not to be the killer I'll vote for thatwasademo on the next night and apologize profusely to Paradox.

I am not a killer. I wouldn't particularly mind if you all got suspicious and killed me because I don't have any helpful powers and my win condition can still be fulfilled after I die. However, as we get closer to LYLO, killing me becomes more and more problematic, so I'm going to...strongly advise you don't?

[BlueSkySprite]

I am a she.
I think those maths look right, although I would appreciate someone else confirming?
You are no longer more suspicious to me than Paradox, although I plan to kill you after them, especially if they are not a killer, so I am changing my vote.
Vote to kill Paradox (with all of my voting power for today)

New Updated Unofficial Vote Count

---

Paradox: 4 (anthusiasm, BlueSkySprite, Thatwasademo)
Thatwasademo: 3 (Paradox, pistachi0n, Shoal)

[pistachi0n]

I'm sorry to keep waffling, but I'm changing my vote back to Paradox

It was pointed out that Demo might have some reflexive power that would backfire and harm us, and while I have oodles of curiosity, I'd rather not risk it. Also, time zone stuff, he changed his vote at the last minute because that was when he woke up, I believe that.

I had been temporarily talked out of voting for Paradox on the assumption that the other killers and jalapeno_dude knew each other, which I never really agreed with.

[Shoal]

And here's a countdown based on the 48 hours of today, I think. Is this right?

Yeah, it's close enough. It's set to end 48 hours and 14 minutes after Alicorn's post. I don't think we've[1] ever been close enough to the deadline still undecided for it to matter.

[1] pronouns are hard but this one means all the people playing not just myself

[Shoal]

Solely based on the idea that 25% if an average number of killers to put in, the idea that Alicorn said she wanted at least 16 players, and the idea that we started with 20, I'm going to guess we started with 4 or 5 and that we are down to 2 or 3. If it's 3, and if exactly one person is killed each night, we can afford one more mistake. If it's 2, and if the same one person dying each night assumptions hold, we can afford two more mistakes. If I'm wrong and there's only 1 killer left then we're in pretty good shape. If there are 3 killers left, which I doubt, we have no mistakes left. If there are 4 left, which I doubt even more strongly, then we (town and cult jointly) have already lost the game.

Anyway, vote paradox because I agree.

And now once again we have "everybody but 1 person voting" so the mods can call it if they want to.

[Thatwasademo]

If there's two killers remaining then the town has essentially already lost, but the cult still has a chance of winning.

[Shoal]

If there's two killers remaining then the town has essentially already lost, but the cult still has a chance of winning.

It may be possible for a joint town-cult win. My original role pm (before Chelsea) stated something about I would win if all threats to the town were eliminated even if I was not alive to see the end. I interpret that to mean anyone with killing powers + anyone with cult recruiting powers. But it depends on the killers and who they choose to nightkill.

Killer A
Killer B
Cultist A
Cultist B
Town A
Town B
Town C
Town D

Worst case scenario if we make a mistake and lynch town today and the killers kill town tonight:

Killer A
Killer B
Cultist A
Cultist B
Town A
Town B

At this point, if we lynch ANYBODY but a killer, we lose. Here's the alignment after the following nightkill (this is assuming both cultists are eliminated but the math is identical if both town were eliminated instead, or one of each):

Killer A
Killer B
Town A
Town B

3 votes need to end the day early. Killer A and Killer B both vote for Town A and if they manage to convince Town B that Town A is a killer then a townie is lynched. Then the other townie dies at night, game over. If both townies vote for a single killer that die it comes down to THE COIN, but one townie dies that night. If they make it to the next day THE COIN will decide again.


So two killers left = 1 more safe mistake. Rewind to here:

Killer A
Killer B
Cultist A
Cultist B
Town A
Town B

Killer B is lynched, during the night Cultist B is killed:

Killer A
Cultist A
Town A
Town B

During the day, The cult and the town vote together to kill the killer, game over town wins. What if they didn't. What if the Cultist bands with the killer instead? Then we're back to THE COIN deciding the fate of the game.



tl;dr: It is not over for the town yet. The cult's winning chances (not described in this document) are much smaller than town's willing chances, and I anticipate the only victory possible for the cult would be a town-cult joint victory. I could be wrong about my guess of a joint victory -- but my original role PM did not say "You will win if all threats to the town are eliminated AND at least 2 towns people are still alive even if you yourself are not among the living".

[Shoal]

Also, if we get rid of all the killers in the next day or two and the mods don't call the game because I was wrong then you can then go after the cultists. It'll be pretty easy by then since no one will be dying at night. If you outnumber us or equal us at that time then you can either kill us or leave it up to THE COIN. But the killers should be our priority until there are no more or we will all lose to them. We have a little room for mistakes, but not enough room to make purposeful mistakes.

[BlueSkySprite]

I think actually everybody's voted now.
Also I think from the way my victory condition was written, it's probably possible for there to be a town victory while the cult is alive, possibly not if the cult is 50% or more of the population and kills all the townies during the day.
Here's another unofficial vote count:

Paradox: 6 (anthusiasm, BlueSkySprite, Thatwasademo, Shoal, pistachi0n)
Thatwasademo: 1 (Paradox)

Which if it's by population is an 83% majority for Paradox, and if it's by votes is an 86% majority for Paradox.
(I'm going to feel pretty bad if they're actually a Miles like they said)

[Shoal]

We're down to 6? I somehow still thought we had 8 left. So I suspect there is 2 in each of the remaining factions.