That is a good point. Timing is important, I think.
vote: thatwasademo
Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
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pistachi0n
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Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
I'm still not convinced. The argument from Paradox's innocence is based off the assumption that all killers know each other. I think of they did, there would be more weird subtext. I can't find any, someone else with more social skills should try. Also-Addy's serial killerS plural win condition.
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BlueSkySprite
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Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
@Paradox: Oh good point re:kuuskytkolme's lack of dying that night.
I think I do believe Thatwasademo about not knowing what his powers are, his descriptions of trying to get information about powers from the moderators sounds a lot like mine.
Oh! Now that I have more information, I guess I should encrypt another statement of my powers. I don't think it's anything anyone here doesn't already know, but I think it'd be inelegant for my crypto to have out of date info.
I vote to kill Thatwasademo (with all today's voting power).
@pistachi0n: I'm not sure why there would have been weird subtext? The scenario jalapeno_dude described was really weird and maybe true but has some evidence against it (the kuuskytkolme thing) and also starts off a lot less likely in mafia games. In almost all mafia games, there is a mafia, and they all know who each other are.
I think I do believe Thatwasademo about not knowing what his powers are, his descriptions of trying to get information about powers from the moderators sounds a lot like mine.
Oh! Now that I have more information, I guess I should encrypt another statement of my powers. I don't think it's anything anyone here doesn't already know, but I think it'd be inelegant for my crypto to have out of date info.
Updated Power Claim
The last minute voting change for jalapeno_dude of Thatwasademo is actually a little suspicious. Not the only possible explanation (RL stuff comes to mind?) but yesterday I was slightly more suspicious of Thatwasademo than Paradox, and not much has changed with the two of them since then, except the voting thing. So Thatwasademo is now more suspicious to me than Paradox.I vote to kill Thatwasademo (with all today's voting power).
@pistachi0n: I'm not sure why there would have been weird subtext? The scenario jalapeno_dude described was really weird and maybe true but has some evidence against it (the kuuskytkolme thing) and also starts off a lot less likely in mafia games. In almost all mafia games, there is a mafia, and they all know who each other are.
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pistachi0n
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Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Yeah. The last minute thing is weird. Something that made me suspicious of Demo is he voted to kill Alphabeta instead of DanielH when he was not part of the Chelsea club. vote Thatwasademo
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Thatwasademo
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Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
At this point it's pretty clear that I'm not "pretending to have whatever powers would be most convenient", since I have been upfront about how quickly I concluded that I don't have any active power. I have no defense against arguments about the timing of my vote, other than to point out how unfair it is to discriminate against me for when I choose to wake up in the morning/afternoon.
That said, right now we're better served by doing endgame math rather than trying to judge suspicion. Writeup pending. It would be fairly helpful if someone else gave priors for there being one killer left, and for me, Paradox, BlueSkySprite, and anthusiasm being killers (in both the cases of there being one killer and two killers left), because then I could trace odds back all the way to today's vote rather than only the possible circumstances after today's vote.
That said, right now we're better served by doing endgame math rather than trying to judge suspicion. Writeup pending. It would be fairly helpful if someone else gave priors for there being one killer left, and for me, Paradox, BlueSkySprite, and anthusiasm being killers (in both the cases of there being one killer and two killers left), because then I could trace odds back all the way to today's vote rather than only the possible circumstances after today's vote.
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Thatwasademo
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Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
... Also, how likely do you think it is that we have a third cultist in hiding?
Edit: Took too long to write up what was supposed to be an edit to this post to prevent triple-posting, will post below.
Edit: Took too long to write up what was supposed to be an edit to this post to prevent triple-posting, will post below.
Last edited by Thatwasademo on Sun Apr 12, 2015 6:55 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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pistachi0n
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Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
DanielH used two nights on Shoal and two on me (one of which failed.) Highly unlikely.
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BlueSkySprite
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Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
I am actually not very good at probability, (It was very loosely covered in about a week's worth of high school geometry, and I've done a little bit on my own but not a lot.)
There were at least 3 killers at the beginning, there are I think at most 2 killers currently alive, because pistachi0n and Shoal are almost certainly not killers, and anthusiasm is very probably not a serial killer. Which leaves Me (BlueSkySprite), Paradox, and Thatwasademo. I am not a killer, although you don't need to believe me about that. I'm guessing each of you would also say you are not a killer and you aren't sure about the other two? Which I think would math about the same. So that leaves either you or Paradox as killers, or possibly both. So we started with either 3 or 4 killers.
According to the mafia wiki, having more factions (cult) is bad for the killers because they are more likely to kill scum, which is recommends balancing by either giving the killers more power roles or by having more killers. There was at least one killer with a power (Chainsaw) and probably more than one (because of the voting oddness when we tried to kill tau). But I'm pretty sure there were originally a lot of town or town-ish power roles to begin with as well. So more killers as well as more powered killers might be necessary to have the game balanced?
My instinct is that anthusiasm is very probably not a killer because Ozy was willing to swap out with her which indicates that it might not be the most interesting role to play? She's next on my suspicion of being a murderer list after Thatwasademo and Paradox.
I think it's not very likely we have a third cultist, because I'm pretty sure all the actions of everyone with Chelsea powers were accounted for.
I agree that Thatwasademo is being honest about his confusion of what his powers do, but I think he is slightly more likely to be a killer than Paradox. I am a little but not a lot worried that he will have a reflexive role that will harm the town if/when we kill him. This is also a concern for Paradox.
Also,
There were at least 3 killers at the beginning, there are I think at most 2 killers currently alive, because pistachi0n and Shoal are almost certainly not killers, and anthusiasm is very probably not a serial killer. Which leaves Me (BlueSkySprite), Paradox, and Thatwasademo. I am not a killer, although you don't need to believe me about that. I'm guessing each of you would also say you are not a killer and you aren't sure about the other two? Which I think would math about the same. So that leaves either you or Paradox as killers, or possibly both. So we started with either 3 or 4 killers.
According to the mafia wiki, having more factions (cult) is bad for the killers because they are more likely to kill scum, which is recommends balancing by either giving the killers more power roles or by having more killers. There was at least one killer with a power (Chainsaw) and probably more than one (because of the voting oddness when we tried to kill tau). But I'm pretty sure there were originally a lot of town or town-ish power roles to begin with as well. So more killers as well as more powered killers might be necessary to have the game balanced?
My instinct is that anthusiasm is very probably not a killer because Ozy was willing to swap out with her which indicates that it might not be the most interesting role to play? She's next on my suspicion of being a murderer list after Thatwasademo and Paradox.
I think it's not very likely we have a third cultist, because I'm pretty sure all the actions of everyone with Chelsea powers were accounted for.
I agree that Thatwasademo is being honest about his confusion of what his powers do, but I think he is slightly more likely to be a killer than Paradox. I am a little but not a lot worried that he will have a reflexive role that will harm the town if/when we kill him. This is also a concern for Paradox.
Also,
unofficial vote count
And here's a countdown based on the 48 hours of today, I think. Is this right?-
Thatwasademo
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Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
So I counted the number of alive players wrong. I thought there were 7 from BlueSkySprite's post, assuming she wasn't listing herself as I skimmed it. This makes the math a lot simpler and a lot less favorable to the town: If BlueSkySprite is the last killer, or if there are two killers left, the town is screwed as soon as they realize this (the only possible route to victory for the town involves the cult's cooperation and gives them no chance of winning). If me, Paradox, or anthusiasm is the last killer, and we guess wrong, then the game becomes a complicated kingmaker with coinflips scenario where the killer's best move is to kill BlueSkySprite and then try to convince the cultists that they aren't the killer while voting with the town against them. The killer would also have a chance of victory if they kill the cultist, but only if the town guesses wrong the second day, so they probably wouldn't do that.
I honestly don't think BlueSkySprite or anthusiasm is the last killer.
So, here's my gambit: Vote: Paradox. If I am the killer, which I'm not, I promise to steer the game towards the branch where the odds are 50/25/25 for the cult/killer/town respectively, rather than the branch where the odds are 75/25 for the cult/killer (by killing a cultist two nights from now). I can only hope that you have some respect for the first person to make such an offer, since it is as obviously in Paradox's best interest to make this offer as it is in mine, regardless of which of us is the killer.
If anthusiasm is the last killer, congratulations to her.
Edit: freaking pronouns, you'd think when i'm pausing after hastily writing something to check them i'd check all of them, but you'd be wrong
I honestly don't think BlueSkySprite or anthusiasm is the last killer.
So, here's my gambit: Vote: Paradox. If I am the killer, which I'm not, I promise to steer the game towards the branch where the odds are 50/25/25 for the cult/killer/town respectively, rather than the branch where the odds are 75/25 for the cult/killer (by killing a cultist two nights from now). I can only hope that you have some respect for the first person to make such an offer, since it is as obviously in Paradox's best interest to make this offer as it is in mine, regardless of which of us is the killer.
If anthusiasm is the last killer, congratulations to her.
Edit: freaking pronouns, you'd think when i'm pausing after hastily writing something to check them i'd check all of them, but you'd be wrong
Last edited by Thatwasademo on Sun Apr 12, 2015 7:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Thatwasademo
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Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
In case anyone is curious, what I was going to do if there were in fact 7 players is encourage the town to lynch both me and Paradox in whichever order, since getting it right on the second try would have resulted in a lot of coinflips with a 50% chance of the town winning and a 50% chance of going to the next coinflip.