Alicornutopia

Night 4 thread!

Who should we kill?
Who should jalapeno_dude assign the kill to?
Who should I protect?
Who should Tamien investigate?

My opinion: Tulip should finish killing Alphabeta (modrony was suspicious of her but will die if she peeks).

I'm probably going to protect jalapeno_dude because several people were suspicious of him. People were also suspicious of Tulip but there aren't few enough townies that I want to die yet, but if you guys think it's urgent I'll protect her. Nobody was suspicious of Tamien or Shoal, so even though Tamien has the useful power it's highly unlikely she'll get lynched tomorrow.

I'm still curious about Paradox.

I think I'm probably safe for now; protect people who are getting more heat than I am tomorrow (jalapeno_dude is a good choice).

I think Paradox is the last person who we don't know the identity of, right? So it would make sense for me to investigate him.

Basically agreed. Paradox is the only one left worth investigating. After that Tamien is effectively vanilla. (I guess it would be nice to know which of michaelblume and futurevision is which, but not necessary.) So protection should just be based on suspicions. If I am protected I can try to act semi-suspicious, like I did in my post just after dawn yesterday, and if Tulip is in danger we can counter- bandwagon me. If we do it right I bet Kappa won't even try to kill me the next night.

if we protect jalapeno and he gets almost-lynched tomorrow we can all pretend to believe he's a dragon.

the listposts are great because it means we're not limited to our safeclaims. anyone can assume we're any dragon on our lists if we get almost-killed and don't die. we never have to claim to be a role that someone else might have. it's great.

I see no reason to wait, so I'll once again assign the nightkill to Tulip. Please post as you send your PMs as usual. If we need to change things, no worry; we can just resend/re-assign.

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In the meantime, let's discuss the endgame. I'll just infodump to get started:

Us
jalapeno_dude
pistachi0n
Shoal
Tamien
Tulip

Definitely Town
Alphabeta* (Keo)
BlueSkySprite (Kanaat)
kappa* (Talyn)
modrony* (Leekath)
MTC (Rithka, x2)

Probably Town
anthusiasm (Aziel)
futurevision (Ilen?, x2?)

?
michaelblume (Hallai?)
Paradox

One of these people might also be possessed by a demon?

Our win condition is incompatible with everyone besides ourselves, so we'll have to kill even the non-Town people, of course.

I've marked the people with powers that are threatening to us with *'s. I've noted that MTC and probably futurevision could have 2 forms remaining (it's possible Paradox could, too).

Suspicious People
modrony (7)
futurevision (6)
jalapeno_dude (5)
Tulip (3)
Paradox (3)
anthusiasm (2)
MTC (2)
kappa
pistachi0n

I made this list by looking at BSS's summary post and the thread after it, counting each mention as suspicious in a summary post, or vote for a person by someone who hadn't listed them in a summary post already. I included our own posts and votes, so this should be taken as a measure of who the game as a whole is publically suspicious of. 9/14 players are on this list. The others are:

"Innocent" People
Alphabeta
BlueSkySprite
michaelblume
Shoal
Tamien

Given this, what should our plans be?

I note that modrony is uniquely both definitely Town and towards the top of the suspicion list. It would be nice to townkill them tomorrow if at all possible. It might also be worth including Paradox and anthusiasm in our suspicion posts tomorrow to build a case for a possible later townkill.

I think it's to our advantage to remove the people who everyone thinks are innocent from the game before the endgame. That means Alphabeta, BSS, and probably Kappa too.

Some of that was obvious to me, but it's nice to see some numbers to back up gut feelings (e.g. that BSS is dangerous and Paradox is potentially lynchable). It's also nice to see that Shoal and Tamien are in deep cover!

If Alphabeta dies tonight as expected, it will be interesting to see what happens to BSS. Her listpost says that she has "a win condition that Keo is alive because of their mind link." Hopefully that means BSS will just die too--if not, we might want to press her on what exactly her new win condition is. It could be a nice way to discredit an extremely trusted person.

Alright, I sent in the hit on Alphabeta.

One thought I had was that, with the way things have been going, we may be able to semi-plausibly claim that Aestrix was either lying or wrong in her reveal post about how many mafia there were. After all, if there really were that many mafia plus a demon running around, surely we'd have killed at least one scum player by now, right? Much more likely that Aestrix was genuinely mafia all along, and did that reveal as a last-ditch attempt to mess with the heads of us innocent townies, distorting our models of what's going on so the rest of her faction would be more likely to win.

I doubt it'd be that easy to sell, and it might be worth waiting on it another day in order to further increase its plausibility, but I could see it being pretty valuable if we could sell it. The risk, of course, would be that they see through the ploy, assume whoever is suggesting it is scum, and find us that way.

I sent in my PM.

Tulip, that's complicated by the fact that our nightkills have been obviously town, we never actually succeeded in lynching somebody (first day we voted no lynch, then we lynched dragons), and someone did get the demon in PDV.

If modrony doesn't get lynched tomorrow, we should nightkill her tomorrow night. After that? It seems like town will be running out of suspicious people that aren't us. If we need a diversion, it would be interesting to kill michaelblume and the next day point out "Futurevision admitted that her win condition would be anti-town if michaelblume dies, and now michaelblume is dead, so let's lynch futurevision." Of course, that only works if futurevision sticks around. If she doesn't, we could plausibly say that maybe now that she's dead, michaelblume is anti-town and even if he doesn't participate, he's still technically a threat to the town and we should kill him again.