Alicornutopia

Starting this thread now before I go to sleep because I suspect the day will end before I'm awake again. To discuss:
-who to kill
-who to investigate
-who to protect

I am going to protect you again. I think we should kill one of the neighbors because they will pose a threat to us end-game.

At this point I think BSS would be best.

So we voted to lynch Tau and he didn't die. Do you think he's a dragon?

Tamien, I think you should investigate tau tonight. It'll give us more information on dragons. If he is a dragon, we know lynches count as an attempt to kill a dragon. If he isn't a dragon, we'll know he was protected by some other power. And he has a listpost that we can compare his name against.

probably dragon.

http://alicorn.elcenia.com/board/viewto ... 103#p11103

removing the improbable:

Keo -- I don't think she'd be in this game, but she'd have to be vastly underpowered if she was. And probably linked to Kanaat if both are in the game. Possibly used as a cop?
Neris -- dragon, likely vanilla or nearly vanilla
Maeris -- dragon, probably vanilla.
Eret/Theedy -- shrens, possibly linked somehow. Maybe some kind of hiding power?
Jensal -- shen, probably vanilla
Kaylo -- dragon, he really likes figuring things out about magic if I recall correctly so possibly a power cop?
Ehail -- shren, wizard

so tau doesn't even speculate what a wizard would do so i think probably not a wizard. so that leaves vanilla, kaylo, or keo

I'm actually more tempted for us to kill tau off immediately since we know he's down a form, and I was hoping to investigate someone who made a believable roleclaim, as a sanity check. Buuuut I guess I could just investigate tau, and then if he turns up a coppy-sounding name we can kill him for good tomorrow.

Yeah, the town will probably assume tau is a dragon and not want to lynch him again.

When we don't know who the investigative roles are, we should kill people who the town is unlikely to lynch. So, BSS, Aloha, wolf, MTC, Tau, and probably Kappa (though at some point someone is bound to question her leadership.)

Okay, it seems clear to me that given the choice between a vanilla dragon townie and an otherwise vanilla dragon with both forms, we should always choose to kill the non-dragon first (they both get 1 vote, but one is twice as hard to kill). This is an argument for waiting as long as possible to kill dragons unless we're forced to kill them to eliminate their powers or they're definitely down a form. (In the latter case, there's still not a positive reason to kill the down-a-form dragon, they're exactly as hard to kill as any other townie).

In particular, there is no reason for us to go out of our way to kill MTC=Rithka. (If I were MTC/wolffreak, in hindsight I would have lied about which of us was Mallyn and which was Rithka for precisely this reason, but this seems like something that is much more obvious in hindsight.)

Thoughts on who to investigate:
-Modrony? Kappa and modrony seem to be the dominant influences on the daytime discussion right now. Kappa I'm fine leaving alive as long as we know he isn't getting any information, but if modrony has investigative powers they should probably die ASAP.
-Alphabeta or BSS? It seems likely that they're Kanaat/Keo. Once we know which is which I'd be inclined to kill Kanaat first, in the hope that the mindlink kills both of them (and even if it doesn't, it's more efficient to kill the non-dragon first as discussed above).
-Tau? (For the reasons discussed above).

Thoughts on who to kill:
-Tau? for the reasons above?
-If not Tau, I'd recommend wolffreak, for the reasons I mentioned above (practically guaranteed to be a 1-kill townie).

pistachi0n, who is Aloha?

Aloha is Alpha. I was typing that on my phone and I must have made a typo.

If we don't investigate tau, we should choose someone who posted a list so we can know if they have a power role or not.

Tau and wolffreak are both good people to kill. Tau because town will think he's a dragon after the lynch failed and not want to vote for him again, but unlike MTC, we know he's down a form so we can get him. Wolffreak because people are trusting him because he and MTC can vouch for each other's innocence.

I realized that after we kill one member of a neighboring pair, town will know the other member of the pair is also town.

if we leave the masons alive long enough we can start wondering in public why the mafia hasn't killed them yet. we do need to kill them eventually, though.

i think investigating modrony seems wise. or one of alpha/bss so we know which to kill.

any cops might spend a turn confirming these pairings which means they're not investigating us.