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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Thu May 14, 2015 6:37 pm
by jalapeno_dude
modrony wrote:@Jalapeno
That is an excellent idea at this point.
I think you can cross off Finnah (because the power is utterly useless) and Narax is pretty unlikely because Shoal lacked a night action on the night I checked them.
So what's your estimate for the probability of Shoal being Eret? If I take it seriously it leads to a weird dynamic where if I think Shoal is definitely Mafia it doesn't matter when I vote for them, but if I think there's some possibility that Shoal is Town and some possibility that they're Mafia I should vote for them ASAP if I'm going to do so at all so I'm not the last person to vote for them, except then that discourages a 4th vote (which is presumably the person who's least sure of Shoal's guilt of the 4 voters) from voting for Shoal at all because they might get killed as a result of it...
Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Thu May 14, 2015 6:44 pm
by jalapeno_dude
Also:
While I'm thinking about deadlines:
Mods, can we treat this image as giving the official deadline, so that voting will close at the moment its countdown hits zero? This seems particularly likely to become important today...
Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Thu May 14, 2015 6:53 pm
by Alicorn
Yes, that seems like a good idea.
Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Thu May 14, 2015 7:15 pm
by modrony
jalapeno_dude wrote:
So what's your estimate for the probability of Shoal being Eret?
I think it's irrelevant because if Shoal is mafia the list means nothing and if they are not we already lost if we lynched them.
Did your list, will only post if you want me to.
Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Thu May 14, 2015 7:18 pm
by jalapeno_dude
modrony wrote:Did your list, will only post if you want me to.
Sure, go for it.
Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Thu May 14, 2015 7:23 pm
by modrony
Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Thu May 14, 2015 7:26 pm
by modrony
Now I am going to bed. Did not intend to stay up this late again.
Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Thu May 14, 2015 7:28 pm
by jalapeno_dude
Hmm, interesting. Trying to be as non-specific as possible, I'll just say that when I used the subjunctive ('if', 'might', etc.) for features of this game the intention was for people to read the role as "vanilla if this feature doesn't exist."
EDIT: Sleep well!
Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Thu May 14, 2015 8:01 pm
by modrony
aah. absolutely useless to try to sleep when I want to say something.
Your list makes you kind of suspicious because if it's genuine this is what you told mafia on day 1:
- Not vigilante
- No info powers (the half-vampire is kind of vague)
- Not bomb.
It might mask your role but not any others.
Also: the problem with 'if this feature exists' is that we didn't know what features exist on day 1.
Now sleep. It is 6 AM!
Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Thu May 14, 2015 8:31 pm
by jalapeno_dude
modrony wrote:Also: the problem with 'if this feature exists' is that we didn't know what features exist on day 1.
Now sleep. It is 6 AM!
I'd call that a feature, not a bug. If the mafia think I have a power which I don't, they might waste time killing me instead of actual powered townies. That obviously didn't end up happening though.
(That said, I treated making my list primarily as an exercise in remembering things about the Elcenia setting and only secondarily strategically.)
___________________
There is another conclusion which people can draw from list analysis. I'd prefer for someone else to figure it out on their own because I don't seem to have credibility.
Modrony, I think you wake up before I go to sleep. If that's the case and you want me to, I'll post my conclusion before I go to sleep, despite my reservations about deciding early. Otherwise I will post it (or confirm someone else's conclusion) when I wake up, about 2 hours before the deadline.