Alicornutopia

jalapeno_dude wrote:

modrony wrote:

jalapeno_dude wrote:But once the first broken precommitment appears, it would be stupid for everyone else not to take that into account.

Actually no, it isn't stupid at all.
If mafia members are breaking rank it means the current candidate is mafia.

Right, which means if you're town and not voting for the current candidate you should be. :p This is precisely an example in which precommitment is bad. (Of course it's fine if everyone who precommits votes correctly, but reality is usually not like that...)

Are you thinking of a situation where lots of people are committed to voting for different candidates?
Because that would obviously be a bad idea.

I am not talking about everyone committing.
I am talking about one person(myself) doing so.
If I am credibly town (and I think I am) the townies would know they will lose if they don't vote for who I am voting for. That way the vote doesn't splinter.

Obviously I wouldn't do so without giving the voted for person ample time to defend themself.
Also won't do it if I get an example where a townie would wait for the last minute voting for a candidate they don't believe in.
That is the only case I can come up with where people jumping wagon would actually be useful info.

I am very willing to be talked out of it if someone gives a concrete example of a series of events where people votejumping from a single candidate would be worth reacting to.

But currently? I am rather likely to do it somewhere around the 10 hour mark.

modrony wrote:Calling the case weak isn't actually an argument against it.
Do feel free to poke holes in it if you can.
That which can be destroyed by the truth should be.

Silence however isn't an argument.
It's an intimidation tactic.

wanting to take a shower, spend 15 minutes each with my cats, and tidy up the flat a bit is an intimidation tactic? I didn't say I'd be gone for the rest of LYLO. I said I had a few things I wanted to do before my cron on habitrpg. I knew I wouldn't be able to do all of them before cron even so I tickied the ones I knew I'd be able to finish tonight and then went and did them. Now the only thing I have left to do besides posting here is brush my teeth which can wait.

I'm sorry you felt intimidated by my need to do some chores. But like you can't have it both ways. Either it's suspicious that I'm posting too much or it's suspicious that I left the computer unattended for a couple hours. How about neither is alignment indicative. It's LYLO. Everyone should be stepping up the activity, but nobody should be abandoning basic hygiene. I'm townreading you modrony but you're really reaching here.

Here's how things look to me:

modrony: claimed to be leekath, and I've seen no evidence to doubt this claim. You're pretty much confirmed town at this point. 99% sure on this one, especially because your claim matches tamien and hers matches yours so that's pretty sure.
tamien: claimed to be ahin and modrony confirms so also pretty much confirmed town. 99% sure about that too.
myself: who has been the town mediator.
anthusiasm, who hasn't done all that much this game and has been kinda quiet but I'd had her in the nulltown pile. She's softclaimed some kind of power and if it's true then she's probably town.
paradox, who also has failed to distinguish themselves very much this game but I was townreading for their longer post yesterday. I'd like to go back over their posts some.
jalapeno_dude, who I've also been townreading pretty much but I want to reread his posts when I'm fresh
michaelblume who's not playing and is a waste of a lynch because if he's town then we lose and if he's scum at least he's not voting.

Obviously I need to do some rereading because I should have 3 scumreads at this point but "kinda townreading everyone" is a problem I have had on mafiascum in some games I can't talk about because they're not completed and it's a sucky problem to have, but rereading usually helps with it.

I want to hear from everyone. I think we all need to talk together and work things out. I do think there's a good chance to win this. We have two conftown and you two can be a town voting block together and work together on stuff. But that doesn't mean the rest of us should just sheep you. We can trust you both to have town motivations but we can't trust you to be infallible. I was conftown in one of my games and it really sucked because it didn't make me right it just meant other people didn't want to mislynch me.

It means that when you're voting me, you're doing it as misguided town, not as scum.

I think there will be a lot to be learned from how and why other people join in voting me or not voting me. Since I'm town, some of the people who vote me will probably be scum and maybe we'll be able to tell the difference. (I actually have something in mind here but if I just tell scum what not to do then it won't work).

So, that's where I'm at. You have an opinion about me. It's incorrect. We can continue working together to find the remaining scum.

Sounds good :)
If I am wrong (thou I don't think I am) I really do want to be proven wrong.

For the record I do not think talking is any kind of sign of scumminess.
I actively encourage it.

And no. One hour of silence wasn't scary. :P
It was this comment I had a problem with: "If everyone in the town is happy with this lynch, then we might have a problem."
Such a silence isn't hard for mafia to arrange, and it might be effective against some if not forewarned. I felt the need to point it out.

I will continue going over the thread tomorrow, and will remain open to arguments about what we should do instead.

I would be talking, but I really don't have that much to say? I'm kinda townreading everyone except Tamien, who I'm null-reading. I'll probably end up voting for Tamien unless I'm convinced otherwise.

(Also my power is defensive and isn't super town-helpful, unless you think it would be really helpful to guarantee that at least one townsperson, me, will survive until tomorrow. I'm considering using it because now I've revealed all this information and probably made myself a target. I've been saving it for in case people try to kill me during the day but people seem to be broadly townreading me so I don't think that's likely to happen).

oh, ok. I will explain that sentence later. The problem isn't a day ending problem or a game ending problem, it's something I'll explain later because explaining it now will jinx it. I don't mean to discourage anyone from voting: I think everyone should vote in the next 24 hours even if not their final votes. I don't mean that I will have a problem with anyone in particular who votes for me.

I'll try to give an example, maybe that will help:

In the game that finished last night, on the last day, when someone was at L-1, a player voted them and said it's hammer time. They did this because they hoped that player wouldn't realise they were already voting for them and voting them again had no effect and they were still at L-1, so that they would say "I give up I'm the last scum" and then we could hammer for real or they could say "good luck town. it wasn't me. I think it was x instead", because after a hammer players are still allowed to talk in twilight until the mod locks the thread. If the player had just voted without pretending to hammer, it wouldn't have worked. If the player had just voted while saying "I'm doing a reaction test", it wouldn't have worked. It didn't actually work anyway because the vote count was right there and the player looked at it before responding, but it works sometimes. (but then they gave up a little while later anyway and we won.)

My reason for not explaining that sentence is similar but not identical to the fakehammer thing. I do promise to explain it at some point in time.

I'm going to bed soon.

@ anthusiasum
Can you expand on why you null-read Tamien?
Or the reasons to townread everyone else?

Hyvää yötä (good night) Shoal.
I should go to sleep soon too.

@modrony basically my suspicions haven't changed since I last posted them except that I am now townreading jalapeño_dude because he's done some pro-town stuff and Tulip is dead.

Tamien wrote:okay, i give up on not being spoiled on elcenia here, can someone explain ilen and hallai and why michaelblume might be scum now?? i had thought that their connection meant he was confirmed town?

Spoiler-free punchline: If this game interprets "Ilen is miserable without Hallai" as If michaelblume dies, I have to do something which would not be beneficial to town I'm *scared* to know what Hallai has to do when Ilen dies. (Note that it's "have to do something", not "my win condition changes", so it's possible something could happen even without michaelblume explicitly ordering it.)

That being said, I think people are probably right that michaelblume is not Mafia. We should just keep in mind that michaelblume is almost certainly not pro-Town either.

modrony wrote:If I am credibly town (and I think I am) the townies would know they will lose if they don't vote for who I am voting for. That way the vote doesn't splinter.

Exactly. You are blackmailing Town into voting with you. If you are going to do this you had better be REALLY REALLY REALLY sure that the person you're voting for is Mafia. If you're wrong you're responsible for Town's loss. Even if you're right it's not a particularly nice thing to do--you're basically telling people "I don't trust you to figure anything out that I don't already know, and in fact I think so little of you that I believe my preferences are the ones you should have and I am going to force them on you." You've already insulted most of the players of this game by lecturing us about listposts and lying about your own powers and then acting smug about that fact, so I guess it wouldn't be out of character for you to do this...

I am very willing to be talked out of it if someone gives a concrete example of a series of events where people votejumping from a single candidate would be worth reacting to.

You specified "concrete" rather than "likely" so this is easy. Shoal could have an *I am Iron Man* power that declares them to be Town. They might want to postpone using it as long as possible in the hopes they won't have to use it at all (since it'd make them a target). In that case, you'd want to votejump.

(That said, I don't think it's likely that Shoal has such a power. But that's independent from my point.)