Alicornutopia

I don't have unusual trust for BSS either. I had unusual trust for them when I thought I knew what their power was, and thought it meant they were a town-aligned template. It has since been shown that both I don't know what their power is and also the power I thought I knew might not be their power, and also that even if that were their power, they aren't the template I am thinking of. So I've dropped back to a neutral-ish read on BSS.

So... it seems like most of the people I thought might be mafia aren't. 63 certainly is not, and jalepeno_dude likely isn't based on what he's been saying most recently. The only person left I have any suspicions at all of left is no.head.chicken, though this isn't based on anything more than gut feeling at this point. So vote no.head.chicken. If someone has a better case for someone being mafia, though (actual evidence as opposed to just gut feeling) I would be happy to switch to them.

At least one bad guy was given a safe claim, and I vaguely remember reading that another had too?
the people I currently have most suspicIon of are thatwasademo and Aestrix.
I'm pretty sure there are none and one votes for them respectively so I'm not of ending the day early by majority voting.
I'm really not at all sure about this but if convincing arguments it a better target are found while I am on my next 8-9 hour flight without Wi-Fi then other people can vote for someone else to fix the problem.
So for a slightly better than random chance of helping bring a killer to mob justice, I vote to kill Thatwasademo [/b ].
For the next about half an hour I will have internet access and could be convinced to change my vote.

Both Daniel and Alpha were given safe claims: Daniel was Eights and Alpha said he was Lazarus.

I thought I knew what BSS's power was early in the game but if she has the power I thought she did then she would still be useful at this time. I am going to revert to thinking I don't know what BSs power is at all. My prior reasoning was entirely based on trying to think of what kind of roles would be useful in the future but not on day 1, and I think I had a failure of imagination there.

I think that in newbie games, "lynch everyone who seems to knows what they're doing" is often a mafia tactic, except they tend to use it for their nightkills instead because people show they know what they're doing by helping the town out and that makes towns reluctant to lynch them.

Speculating about what kinds of power roles there are can be more scummy than not, because the town is primarily interested in finding who the scum are, but scum need to figure out who the power roles are so that they can kill them first or recruit them. This is why I haven't posted that thing I said I was going to post about the long form of what we thought of everybody. When the speculation about what powerroles everyone might have was taken out of, there wasn't much left.

That said, in a game like this one where we know Alicorn has cooked up all kinds of surprises and goodies for us, it is a little bit natural for everyone regardless of alignment to be wondering about exactly is in play. Aestrix has been in the speculating about power roles camp but she didn't jump on my suggestion to share private speculation about where the power roles are. I think that means she knew it would be bad for town, when I really wasn't sure (before looking at it again it was hard for me to remember how much of it was only power role speculation). If she was mafia, she knew she wouldn't be able to backpeddle from looking excited to see that rampant speculation, but that's not the same thing as telling me not to do it. Mafia could just as easily sat back and waited for someone who wasn't mafia to bumble into telling me yes.

I started out writing this thinking that I was going to end up on the Aestrix bandwagon but I think I've just talked myself out of it.

Alpha is Addy.

BlueSkySprite. My current reasons for thinking BSS is not mafia is mainly about how upset she reported being when the random number generator fell on her on the first? day. I think mafia wouldn't have taken it personally, because it would have been true, and would have thought it was funny or annoying or gotten angry or something. I think dejected is more of a town response.

jalapeno_dude has claimed a protown powerrole and claims that some of the crypto can prove it. While it's true that the bad guys have safe claims, and both safeclaims we've seen so far are powerroles, neither of them were neccessarily convenient. Daniel had to pretend to protect people with Eights, but couldn't actually do it, so all his revealed crypto would show him protecting someone who wasn't targetted anyway. Alpha wound up having to claim Addy because Lazarus' power wouldn't have let him protect Michael. If Jalapeno's mafia, it's possible that he got lucky with his safeclaim but doubtful. If his crypto can prove something real then he's probably town for sure. I'm not asking him to prove himself at this time, because there isn't a wagon against him at the moment, though if a bandwagon does form against him it would be protown to do that before he is killed.

kuuskytkolme is Iron Man and I'm 100% sure that kuu is town because if kuu is mafia with an ability like that then why couldn't Alicorn have given that ability to Daniel, it would have saved his life.

no.head.chicken - i don't know.

anthusiasum - claimed to be Darcy with no powers. I believe that claim. All the safe claims we've seen so far had powers.

Paradox - pointed out the double voter thing which the rest of us missed it. same reasoning as tau.

pistachi0n - is cult, not mafia.

Shoal is Alex

tau - seems to be trying to figure things out. I think the doublevote thing would have been shared privately in mafia backchannel, not out here for all of us to see, if tau was mafia.

Thatwasademo - i don't know


i would be super shocked if there were only one mafia in this game. for game balance in a game this size 3-4 would make more sense. although if there is only one they're doing a good job by themselves.

Anyway, it's early in the day but this is the last day for voting so I'm going to:

Vote: Thatwasademo

and if sufficiently convinced by him before my bedtime then I'm probably voting chicken instead.




Unofficial vote count:

Unofficial vote count:

blueskysprite: kuuskytkolme,
Aestrix: pistachi0n,
tau: Thatwasademo,
no.head.chicken: tau
thatwasademo: BlueSkySprite, shoal

not voting: Anthusiasm, no.head.chicken, Paradox, aestrix, alphabeta, jalapeno_dude,

3/4 of 12 seems to be 9. i'm not sure if we need 9 or 10 votes to end the day early. That doesn't seem likely right now.

Hello, my name is Ivan, and I am quite tired of having so little information to go on.

Currently, the people I am most suspicious of are Aestrix, because she seems to be very, very good at getting a lot of people to agree with her and sympathize with her, and no_head_chicken, because I have very little information to go on with them (they claim that their behavior is in line with their personality but I have never interacted with them outside of this game so I don't have evidence of this, so their behavior is just as likely as not to be strategy from where I'm standing).

I'm leaning towards voting Aestrix because if Aestrix is Mafia she is probably really good at it and it would be best to remove her from the game. I'm a bit hesitant because (a) if Aestrix is not Mafia then we really want her alive because she's smart, and (b) the only other person who's voted for her is a confirmed cultist.

Thatwasademo's roleclaim:

decrypts to:

"I am Ivan Vorkosigan, and I have no idea what my powers are."

his public claim was: "I am going to make an early public claim that I'm not an ordinary townsperson."

his night 1 plans:

"I'm targeting DanielH tonight. As per my roleclaim, I don't know what (if anything) this will do."

his intel from night 1:

"Apparently I have amused the moderator. I'll consider that a success."

his next crypto from march 19th that was plans for night 2:

"Aestrix?"

his intel from night 2:

"nothing doing"

-----

I am changing my vote to vote: nochicken

I don't actually think I'm that smart, just methodical and well spoken, but thank you. I keep being wrong about things, my reads on people seem to be hilariously off-mark (see AndaisQ and kuuskytkolme) and when you get down to it I'm pretty inexperienced with mafia. I'm thoughtful and prone to researching the hell out of tactics, but I don't have previous mafia experience to call back on and go, "Ah yes, this is how we will react to this problem."

I don't advocate lynching all of the smart people, when did I say do that thing? I'm saying we're looking for smart people. Which really is advocating paranoia. Which, honestly, if you aren't paranoid by now, I don't know if I envy you or pity you. Bit of both, really.

Also, honestly I'm kind of bemused by all of the people that seem to sympathize with me. Flattered! But bemused. I don't understand, I don't trust anyone except, somewhat hilariously, kuuskytkolme. Because the mods confirmed her as town. Honestly, please, don't trust me automatically just because I'm friendly and helpful and honest. I'd be the same if I were a bloodthirsty murderess. Again, I know I'm town, I know my motivations, and I will defend and explain myself to tooth and nail if it comes up. I'll role claim if my alternative is 'get killed' or I feel like it would be valuable to the group as a whole, but as it is, I don't see it. One, I suspect there are a few useful templates running around that would benefit from hiding in a crowd of unclaimed. Two, I think role claiming has gotten much, much less useful after learning that scum get safe claims. People can claim to be anything in particular, and there's no way to check to see if they're right. Unless, of course, they're claiming to be a powered template, in which case, we'll avoid killing them in fear of killing another powered template.

And I mean, admittedly, my skill set (the one I, Aestrix have, not any template that I'm playing) is really well suited for being mafia. But I am not mafia, which is sort of frustratingly hard to prove. Which is, admittedly, the point. I've been trying to channel myself into doing genuinely useful things for the town, but the jury's out on if I've actually succeeded at any of it. I've tried to advocate thinking and foresight and thought before action. I'm actually in an interesting mix of 'aaaah no I don't want to die I am not allowed' and 'oh look they don't blindly trust me good good that means good things' right now. Uh, good job? Keep not trusting me automatically? Please don't actually kill me? Don't blindly trust me because I'm pleasant, but don't kill me without decent evidence or giving me time to defend myself, either.

I noticed nothing strange happening night 2. Demo, did you do anything on any other nights?

To be honest, no. My first two nights I attempted to take a night action just in case my lack of information about my own powers included the presence of an active ability that I could activate by guessing about. Since then, I've been too lazy (and nights ended early without me submitting actions, so). It's good to know that whatever my power is, it's passive, I guess?

Hm. Interesting.

Well I have a few theories, but I don't know if you want me to say them out loud or not. Up to you.

Eh, it's probably not worth it to share ideas unless you have facts.