modrony wrote:I don't know the story between Talyn and demons. Would someone care to elaborate on that?
Chapter 5 of Blood. That's also where all the stuff about language-dependent vs. language-independent mindspeech is discussed. I don't want to talk about it too much because I don't have a firm theory, but I can see this extrapolated in this game into something like "the demon can speak only if they're addressed first."
modrony wrote:I think it is probable that michaelblume is town because futurevision is and claimed connection to michaelblume.
That makes it even more important that town reaches an unity of vote.
But as anthusiasm points out michaelblume is probably Hallai. If Ilen becomes anti-Town when Hallai dies, I'd expect, just from what I know about their characters, that Hallai *definitely* becomes anti-Town when Ilen dies. But of course michaelblume is inactive so maybe it doesn't matter.
____________________________________
modrony wrote:I would like to hear a concrete example of a situation where there are no votehammers and where votelocking would do more harm than good.
jalapeno_dude? You understand precommits. Any ideas?
I did not fully read the exchange between you and Shoal but I will do my best. TL/DR I think everyone has a strong incentive to defect and you can't enforce a contract.
First of all, let me explain why I said earlier everyone had an incentive to wait until the last minute before voting. (More precisely, I'm going to explain why no one has an incentive to be the first person to vote, which has the logical result that everyone waits until the last minute.) It should be clear why the Mafia do--if they vote for a Townie they give that Townie time to defend themselves. If the Townie successfully defends, the person who made the accusation looks really suspicious. Even if the accused person doesn't successfully defend, the accuser risks looking overzealous. And, more importantly, the person who made the accusation has differentiated themselves and now everyone it Town has a reason to vote for them specifically, when the Mafia would rather have votes split amongst themselves if they have to have people voting for them at all. So no Mafia member is going to vote first. (The only exception I can think of is if they can protect one of their number and cause a mislynch, which, at least ignoring the demon, is enough to win here. But they lost the Mafia!Light and it seems super unlikely there's more than one.)
Okay, so the mafia won't vote first. But by the same logic, a townie is not going to want to make an unproven accusation, because either (1) they'll accuse another townie and that person will defend and the first townie will look suspicious (at least to the one other townie who was accused) and that'll be enough to get them killed, or (2) the accused townie won't defend and they'll get lynched and the mafia will win, or (3) they'll accuse mafia and the mafia members will be able to work together to convince people the accused person isn't guilty, potentially resulting in the death of the accuser.
Obviously one exception to that is if you have concrete proof of someone's guilt, which I noted in my post earlier today.
Okay, now to talk about precommitments. Obviously the mafia is just going to break them (remember, they only need one mislynch to win at least neglecting the demon). But once the first broken precommitment appears, it would be stupid for everyone else not to take that into account. Even if that doesn't happen, if you know you're Town and there are 3 votes against you and you've voted for someone who no one else is voting for, you have a *huge* incentive to change your vote to at least arrange a tie (and it's arguably pro-Town to do so). And of course everyone can make this argument, even the mafia members.
__________________________________
@anthusiasm: There is value to declaring yourself to be definitely Town. If you can't do that, you should only use your powers if they allow you to figure out faction alignments.
_____________________________
EDIT: OH GOD EVERYONE IS VOTING