Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Not the kind with cardstock and pawns. Mostly play by post Mafia so far.
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Shoal
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Post by Shoal »

reply to modrony
I think if you were mafia you'd probably be arguing more strenuously that the light was keeping you alive.

If you're right about the listposts thing, and I really think you are after all that has happened, then the mafia must have realised that they could get Alpha and BSS as a two for one by targetting alpha: BSS' defense of alpha during the first time he was wagonned also would have made that clear to them. I think it is okay to claim masons because that would make the mafia hesitant of killing one -- if one dies then the other is basically modconfirmed town and can never be a target for a mislynch (except for the demon mechanic which undoes that!, but in another game that would be true and until the first demon death none of us had any knowing that was the case so I think the mafia would be hesitant to shoot a claimed mason, though then I'm not sure why wolffreak died so maybe I'm wrong). So I think that BSS should have claimed masons with alpha and not talked about the "if you kill him I die" part.
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Post by Shoal »

votecount wrote: Image

Unofficial vote count:
not voting: 10 (anthusiasm, futurevision, jalapeno_dude, kappa, michaelblume, modrony, paradox, shoal, tamien, tulip)

has talked: anthusiasm, futurevision, jalapeno_dude, kappa, modrony, shoal, tamien
has not yet talked: michaelblume, paradox, tulip

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Tulip
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Post by Tulip »

suspicions
Modrony has gone way down in my suspicion-estimates since yesterday, to the point where I'm inclined to label them as "probably safe"; in retrospect, their endorsement by Alphabeta carries a lot more weight, and I was already feeling kind of iffy about them after their confirmation with Kappa yesterday. So they no longer rank particularly high in my suspicion list (which, despite its name, isn't as much a "list" as it is an "assortment of disorderly and mostly disconnected data points").

Kappa was also endorsed by Alphabeta, albeit a bit less obviously, and so is probably not evil either. The only thing which is making me include him on the list at all is the bit of my brain reminding me how much of a disaster it would be if she did turn out to be evil, given how much everyone trusts him.

My viewpoint on Anthusiasum basically hasn't changed since my last post; she still hasn't pinged me as overtly suspicious, and I still don't trust my ability to accurately measure that. I did go through some of her earlier posts in the thread, but I got tired before I could finish all of them, and the stuff I had is sufficiently ambiguous that I don't feel any more enlightened from it: she did support the day-one RNG kill, but left herself a huge loophole in her precommitment to follow it, since she was willing to duck out "because feelings". But then she didn't duck out on Aestrix, despite (if I'm correctly understanding Aestrix's roleclaim) that, if she were mafia, she'd have thought Aestrix was mafia too. So that's counterevidence. But then she also made a post where she specifically noted that she was at risk of being influenced by other people's feelings votewise, which would give her extra freedom to follow the popular vote, which is a distinctively scummy thing to do. So maybe I'm just misinterpreting how Aestrix's role was supposed to work, and the mafia didn't actually know about her? Or she's just innocent and I'm overcomplicating the whole thing in an overcompensatory response to how her avatar was distorting my perspective of her.

One thing I noticed is that I definitely am tunnel-visioning on the people I deem suspicious, probably more than is optimal. I'm doing my best to compensate against that tendency in this post and future ones, but it's still probably there under the surface, to one extent or another.

Oh, and now that I've read everyone else's spoilerboxes: I'm also slightly suspicious of Shoal for missing the part where MTC confirmed for us yesterday that demons actually can talk, so non-talking is no longer a useful tell of demonhood. And neither is non-voting, incidentally, unless there were vote shenanigans going on, or one of myself or futurevision is a double voter (which I... don't think we are, based on my vague memories of what previous votecounts were?).
Sorry about the late reply, by the way. I've been distracted playing Fallout: New Vegas for the first time in a couple years; I'd forgotten how awesome the game gets once you reach the Strip.
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Shoal
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Post by Shoal »

at Tulip
Oh that's a good point. I still like BSS's reasoning though. I'm going to quote her posts and MTC's posts and then explain some more.
Posts by BSS and MTC some of these were originally spoiler boxed but i am changing those to quotes because nesting is not allowed
These quotes start here: http://alicorn.elcenia.com/board/viewto ... &start=710 if anyone wants to read them in their original context. I have snipped a couple things for length that were not on the topic of MTC and why MTC was suspicious (mostly about vote count formatting)
BlueSkySprite wrote:Okay, I did that! It took a while. (edited for formatting)
Summary of All Posts except Suspicion Boxes wrote:Alphabeta: Said hi, expressed nervousness re: last night. Said modrony is probably Leekath, and asked if they had anything to report. Said he was sympathetic toward modrony, because he withheld information as Addy in the last game. Voted Tulip, because of revenge voting against modrony without a good explanation.

Anthusiasm: Said she has not been participating fully in mafia because she has had pneumonia for two weeks. Voted modrony on cached suspicions, and is unconvinced by arguments against futurevision, and thinks modrony's roleclaim is weird.

BlueSkySprite: Said michaelblume was probably a dragon, and that trying to kill him was a bad idea. Replied to Tulip, saying that voting for people other than michaelblume could have made a large difference because he might have been replaced at the last minute, leading to the death of whoever was next most voted. Voted futurevision. Noted confusion about futurevision's statement that they would be more suspicious if they voted michaelblume, speculated that maybe there are weird voting shenanigans, as has been speculated by many players, because Aestrix said to pay attention to votes, futurevision and michaelblume have not voted, and PDV was missing a vote. Noted confusion about modrony's roleclaim, and said it would have been better to argue against list posts than to role claim. Said she would kill futurevision because they are the most suspicious, but could be persuaded to change her mind. Asked if any dragons wanted to claim they were attacked last night. Said futurevision was now less suspicious, and that she had a guess about who futurevision could be and would not like to kill that person. Said that Addy's copy of Chris's power only worked at night, in relation to the Chainsaw discussion. Voted Tulip, because was her next most suspicious person after futurevision. Said she was concerned that someone's previous affiliations might not matter if they were possessed by a demon because demons jump, and they probably die after the demon jumps. Said that previous trust due to someone being a dragon could become void if they were later possessed. Said she agreed with Anthusiasm that modrony was being suspicious and would be more suspicious if they didn't provide useful information soon. Asked modrony if they had useful or convincing information. Repeated previous suspicion reasons. Said that demons would probably only make sense to jump at night, and said to start making these summaries to evaluate one day's worth of actions and words.

futurevision: Said that if michaelblume died, they would be more suspicious than if they didn't vote again, and promised to vote. To prove they have a vote and because modrony doesn't mind, Voted modrony. Said that if michaelblume dies, they will do something bad for town, and would rather the town kill them than michaelblume. Said michaelblume is a dragon, but if he wasn't, he could have been saved by a light, unless lights don't work during the day, like Chainsaw. Said that they made the comparison because of the similarity between a paralyzing night action and a saving night action.

jalapeno_dude: Said hi, expressed fear and confusion. Said that he was going to stop with the list post crusade, and that Alphabeta is probably town. Said that there is a bandwagon against futurevision, and he would go through the posts to find evidence other than cached suspicions. Said voting for third parties is usually ineffective. Said to Tamien that futurevision implied they would stop being town if michaelblume died, and he isn't sure how much he believes it yet. Said he doesn't want to vote for futurevision, although they are suspicious, because the explanation is too weak what he would expect from a mafia member. He said he finds modrony suspicious, but is pretty sure they are Leekath. He Voted Paradox, for pistachi0n's reasons, and finding Paradox's defense too panicky for one person's vote.

kappa: Said hi, expressed confusion re: last night. Said that dragons did not make sense as mafia. Said lying in list posts was counterproductive. Said they were having a bad brain day. Voted futurevision from cached suspicions. Said michaelblume wasn't proved to be town, just that he survived one attempted mob-kill, which could have happened for another reason. Said the comparison between Chainsaw and lights, and that people who make arguments on wild assumptions are often evil, so they are more suspicious of futurevision.

michaelblume: (said nothing)

modrony: Said hi, advocated caution. Said it was late, and that they would sleep before making a decision about what to say. Said that they would be willing to not kill futurevision for a day in order for futurevision to demonstrate that they have a vote, especially if they are the only one voting for that person, to avoid potential confusion about vote-vanishing. Promised to vote for futurevision if they abstained again. Said to Tulip that voting was to demonstrate a working vote, and that they approved of her forming suspicions. Said they don't think they are very valuable. Told jalapeno_dude that they started undercutting when they realized they were crushing anthusiasm, who was trying to make a list and put effort into it, and didn't want to be mean. Said that they thought that everyone understood that there should be a possibility of lies, for better infosec from scum. Told Shoal that not claiming would have been better, but taken more time. Said people should make judgment themselves about whether knowing what someone's power is posthumously would help the town or not. Said they weren't sure either way whether tau was town or scum, said they were suspicious of pistachi0n for confidence in lists and voting no-lynch on day 1. Promised not to do last-minute vote changing. Said they became less suspicious of pistachi0n when they discovered the tau wagon was originally pistachi0n's, rather than pistachi0n just starting the backslide. Said statement voting is not useful, and did not vote for their candidate because it was a lost cause, and trusted people said voting tau was a good idea. Voted futurevision. Said they would unvote if futurevision voted. After futurevision voted, Changed vote to Tulip. Said Tulip was smart enough to get the point of voting. Replied to BlueSkySprite that they could tell a name that didn't have a night action on a certain night, but is worried about being killed anyway. Asked for enough time to find at least one useful person. Replied to Tulip that if everyone voted, they would know for certain whether the demon vote-vanishing theory was true, and that it was best to find out if vote shenanigans are going on by watching everyone's votes.

MTC: Voted futurevision.

Paradox: Speculation: michaelblume survived because dragon, therefore probably town. Voted futurevision. Objected to pistachi0n's complaint because MTC made the same number of posts and voted at a similar time. Said they should not be more suspicious than MTC for the same action.

pistachi0n: Said that the 3 deaths night 2 and 0 deaths night 3 were odd. Said that she previously thought there were at least 2 scum factions, and if there is only one, maybe the target was protected. Said they started voting for tau because he was the previous highest suspect before futurevision. Said futurevision shouldn't go 3 days without voting. Said modrony said that tau was probably innocent, and then did last-minute vote changing again. Wanted to know why modrony jumped on a bandwagon started by someone they suspected, rather than PDV, said modrony only voted for tau because it was easy. Voted Paradox for silence and last-minute vote. Said they did not suspect MTC because he is probably Rithka, because wolffreak was confirmed as Mallyn. Said she is not voting to kill futurevision because if they are scum, their vote doesn't count, and if they are town and their vote doesn't count, they are still useful to town. She thinks that no scum would be oblivious enough to not voting being considered evil to go 3 days without voting. She still wants futurevision to vote.

Shoal: Speculation: Either there is a light, the mafia targeted a dragon, or Leekath is a dragon with a vampire form, or modrony is not Leekath. Speculated that because modrony thought more people should lie in list posts, modrony might be holding back some of findings. Agreed that modrony should sleep before making a big decision. Voted futurevision. Said that earlier voting would mean a better chance for successful third party lynchings.

Tamien: Said she just got back from camping. Said she doesn't understand why people retract votes on futurevision just because they put votes in bold with a vote, because Chelsead people could also do that without their votes having power. Wants to know what the suspicion with respect to futurevision's vote is, specifically. Voted futurevision, based on cached suspicions.

Tulip: Said that she didn't vote yesterday due to brainpower problems and not finding anyone suspicious. Said that she was still confused about why the voting was important, as it is no longer necessary to counter the no-lynch vote. Voted modrony. Said she was not voting modrony for revenge, but because they are suspicious, and thought it would be better to start a bandwagon against someone she thinks is probably evil, rather than jumping on a probably not evil bandwagon. Said that her explanation of her nonvoting is not great, but it is true. Replied to modrony that she had not realized the goal was to find out if weird voting things were going on, rather than to influence who died. Promised to vote today.
Summary of All Suspicion Boxes wrote:Alphabeta: Made a suspicion post of jalapeno dude for continuing the list post encouragement, said michaelblume was probably a dragon, and some trust toward kappa.

Anthusiasm: (Posted publicly because it was late in the day.)

BlueSkySprite: Made a suspicion post of futurevision and Tulip for not voting, said michaelblume was probably a dragon, and not murderous. Said some suspicion for jalapeno_dude and kappa over feelings.

futurevision: Made a suspicion post of modrony, because they roleclaimed out of frustration without providing new information, without claiming anything but that list posts are bad.

jalapeno_dude: Made a suspicion post with confusion about modrony's roleclaim. Said the reasons to roleclaim were to stop from being mob-killed, but nobody was trying to kill them, or to share vital information with credibility. Said the intention of the claim was unclear and did not seem to successfully prevent future list posts. Said the weird light message was also suspicious, but overall still probably Leekath.

kappa: Made a suspicion post with cached suspicion of futurevision and suspicion towards non-voters.

michaelblume: (none)

modrony: Suspicious of futurevision, though less certain due to the lack of self defense. Suspicious of tulip for non-voting, not voting Aestrix, and not having opinions. Suspicious of pistachi0n for starting tau bandwagon. Suspicious of jalapeno_dude for list crusade. Weakly suspicious of anthusiasm for previously stated reasons, which I don't want to go find.

MTC: (none)

Paradox: Made a suspicion post of futurevision (mostly cached), and of jalapeno_dude from feelings.

pistachi0n: Made a suspicion post of Paradox for not saying much all day and voting near the end, not suspicious of michaelblume.

Shoal: Made a suspicion post. Still suspicious of futurevision, but glad they are participating again. Said modrony seemed to be asking the light to save them, and the light probably did because nobody died, but that if they hadn't that the light could have protected someone else. Said that it would have been better for modrony to just argue against list posts without claiming, and that if modrony is town, jalapeno_dude is also probably town, because in games they've seen, two people disagreeing are often both town. Said michaelblume is probably a dragon because there isn't an obvious good reason to prevent him from being lynched. Said they are not suspcious of Alphabeta, BlueSkySprite, MTC, or kappa.

Tamien: (posted publicly because it was late in the day)

Tulip: Made a suspicion post. Suspicious of modrony because they didn't publicize their concern about list posts until most people had already made one, made an unverifiable role claim. However, noted that modrony doesn't seem to be using this power and is probably either a weird vanilla townie or a killer. Also declared suspicion toward anthusiasm, to counteract natural tendency toward trusting people with cute icons.
BlueSkySprite wrote:Okay so from today's actions only, I think the most suspicious person is MTC, because they didn't make a suspicion post, then voted for futurevision without explanation, and haven't said or done anything since. Everyone is ignoring the possibility that they are evil because they are probably Rithka, but if they are being possessed by a demon, they could still be evil. Their actions read to me as trying to fly under the radar by voting without explanation or other participation, with the protection of their identity.
Please let me know if there's a flaw in this reasoning.
I vote to kill MTC.
BlueSkySprite wrote:Also because MTC hasn't had an explanation like michaelblume or Anthusiasm's illness, or Tamien's camping.
Which are actual good explanations for non participation.
MTC wrote:BSS: one obvious flaw in your reasoning is that I just am that quiet. I haven’t had much to say, nothing really to add to everyone else’s suspicions, and no change in my suspicions since the previous day. In retrospect I probably should have made a suspicions post saying that before voting for futurevision, but I just ended up not doing so.
BlueSkySprite wrote:I still think the most suspicious person is mtc
BlueSkySprite wrote:@anthusiasm: Why do you not want to vote MTC, though?
I think their voting just for futurevision without explanation, then not saying anything at all until I voted for them is more suspicious than Paradox being mostly quiet but still saying things and having thoughts and opinions and suspicions they share.
What I think of this
So it seems that a person can actually talk if they are a demon. That's kind of good news and bad news. The bad news is that it's not going to be as easy as I thought. But the good news is that I really think BSS was on to something. I remember last game when Alpha targeted Daniel. Daniel's wincon changed and he didn't say anything about it in our private thread. He didn't know how to say it or was worried what to do. So he went quiet. You might also have noticed (in hindsight) a change in my demenor on day 2 vs day 1 of last game. On day 1 that was me being a clueless townie. On day 2 I had a new win condition and I didn't know what to do about it yet. I didn't know how to avoid suspicion, and it's hard to just keep doing what you have been doing when your purpose has changed.

And in this game with the demon kills we've seen the same thing. PDV was quiet. In hindsight not completely silent, you're right the details got away from me, but silent. Off. Kinda lurking and unsure. And MTC, there was a change in MTC's demenor and it was clear enough that BSS picked up on it and she was right. His wincon changed. He grew quieter. He wasn't sure what to do.

So that's what we need to be looking for today. Not absolute silence, I was wrong about that. But naked votes. People being a bit quieter. Acting different than yesterday in a way that makes it hard to find the town motivation in their posts. It's possible there is a post restriction that isn't absolute silence.

I've seen a bunch of different post restrictions on mafiascum in games I haven't played in and some of them look kind of fun: there was uncouth mafia where everyone had to do a different rude thing in each post (one had to talk about their last bowel movement, another had to curse in every post, etc.) there was polite mafia where one person's restriction was that they had to offer refreshments to people in every post, another had to comment on the weather in every post, etc, another had to work one of several phrases they could choose from into each post ("splendid", "delightful" "charming"). There was another game where someone couldn't write words only had to write gestures like *points at BSS* *gives thumbs up*. They were allowed to quote posts but could only gesticulate in reply. That looked fun.
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modrony
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Post by modrony »

It's almost 24 hours again. We can probably dispense the spoilers again.

@shoal
Pretty certain michaelblume not speaking is not indicative of anything.
Not saying we shouldn't lynch him but I don't think that should be the reason.

paradox and (not*)tulip may be slightly more suspicious for the silence, but they are silent anyway and we should be looking for a change in behaviour.
I don't think silence should be an overriding concern.

I do think people should speak so we can get a better read on their behaviour. Remaining silent should count for some suspicion.*

*Damnit Tulip posting just as I was saying this. :D
*aand there you go saying basically the same stuff
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Shoal
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Post by Shoal »

I agree about michael; he's probably still sick. If he's better and wants to rejoin the game that would be nice.

I would like to hear from Paradox though. In fact I'm going to put my vote where my mouth is. I'll change it if Paradox shows up and acts like someone with a town win condition. I wish BSS were here because she's probably better at this than I am but right now Paradox is my best guess for who was town yesterday and isn't today.

Vote: Paradox
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Post by modrony »

Time to vote then.
vote jalapeno_dude
For being better with crypts than I am and still advocating lists.
I simply do not see how those two things go together.

Also since nobody seems to have reacted to it:
If anyone has a reason to believe that the mafia has a roleblocker and wouldn't lose too much by speaking about it I would like to hear about it.
Obviously: if you think it would make you a target, don't do it.
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Post by anthusiasm »

@Shoal, you're right, I am really unsure about who to vote for. I'm more likely to vote for the people I'm null-reading (Jalapeño_dude, Tamien, and Tulip), but I don't have any interesting arguments to offer.

@Tulip, yeah, in hindsight, I've been acting pretty suspiciously. If it helps, I said I was very likely to jump on bandwagons partly because I thought people should know that so they didn't put too much trust in my reasoning, and partly because I tend to get obnoxiously self-deprecating when I'm outside my comfort zone.

I think it would be helpful to think about who a demon would choose to possess. I'm assuming it's voluntary because possessing MTC makes so much sense from a strategic standpoint, since he had a verified roleclaim and didn't participate a lot. If BSS were still alive and I were a demon I might've jumped to her next because she gives off such a trustworthy vibe and kinda-sorta-roleclaimed, but might not have because she participates a lot and an absence would've been noticed. With this in mind, I think it would be a smart decision to possess michaelblume, since his absence wouldn't be noticed as much.

Also, person/people with switched win conditions, can you tell us what it changed to/from if allowed? (I'm assuming you're not suddenly mafia because I don't think you would've mentioned the changed win condition if that were the case). I don't know how helpful it'll be but more information is good.
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Post by jalapeno_dude »

anthusiasum wrote:Also, person/people with switched win conditions, can you tell us what it changed to/from if allowed? (I'm assuming you're not suddenly mafia because I don't think you would've mentioned the changed win condition if that were the case). I don't know how helpful it'll be but more information is good.
I think this is responding to Shoal's post above? I read that as talking about Shoal changing win conditions in the *last* game, when they got Chelsea'd.

Currently writing a really long post which a reply to modrony, suspicions of everyone, and my vote. Will be up soon.
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Post by anthusiasm »

@jalapeno_dude, ah, that makes more sense! I was wondering why they would mention something like that if they weren't prepared to explain in more detail. Question retracted.
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