I'm really confused about the Mafia-light. Maybe it was the light that modrony was talking about? But Ryganaav was also taken over by Linnip, so it might be a Linnipese mafia with Ryganaavlan people scattered in.
Okay. There are ten people left in the game. Three of us are Mafia.
I don't have any definitive suspicions, so I'm going to make a list of everyone involved and my impressions of them. The list is mostly about my feelings and not backed up by a lot of substantive arguments, so feel free to ignore it. Then I'm going to study for AP exams for the rest of the night. If I post in this thread again please remind me of my commitment to study for AP exams for the rest of the night.
Impressions
anthusiasm: Me. I'm town.
Futurevision: Doesn't participate much, but has good excuses for doing so, and I sympathize. Has claimed that they are town unless michaelblume is killed.
Jalapeno_dude: I have residual suspicions from the last game but nothing definitive either way.
Kappa: Some of the things he said at the beginning of the game sounded like they were coming from a mindset I was familiar with. (I have no idea if this makes sense, but I'm having a hard time explaining the thing). Anyway, she's one of the people I'm least suspicious of.
Michaelblume: Sick. Seemed more active this game than he was last game before illness, but I think that's because we seem to collectively view non-participatory people as being suspicious.
Modrony: Comes off as pro-town now that they have provided an explanation for their actions.
Paradox: Has made several pro-town observations. Gets kind of defensive when people vote for them, which is weird, but it would be hypocritical of me to call that suspicious since I get panicky when people vote for me, too.
Shoal: I have a general impression that they make a lot of pro-town observations/suggestions.
Tamien: Nothing definitive either way. It's possible that she's made significant pro-town observations/suggestions and I just haven't caught them.
Tulip: Nothing definitive either way.
Edit: Um, basically, I agree with the last two lines in Kappa's most recent spoilerbox.
Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Thu May 07, 2015 5:31 pm
by jalapeno_dude
Sorry for not posting earlier. I have been busy all day (meeting with a visiting collaborator) and have just now gotten time to say anything.
Immediate thoughts based on tonight's results:
-pistachi0n could be a light (people have already said this). That means the people who we failed to kill in the evening could be mafia-affiliated (or protected by a mafia light for some other reason, I guess) in addition to dragons (people have also already said this). Tau was definitely a dragon, so that leaves michaelblume and futurevision as potential mafia-protected-by-Oris.
-I am generalizing from a very small dataset, but I notice that people with the DEMON affiliation have died on nights 2 and 4 respectively. It seems natural to conclude that we are seeing a single demon, possessing its hosts and killing the previous ones every two nights. (Can we go back and check if Lutan was possessed?) So we probably get two tries to kill whoever's been possessed (I agree with what people have said that we can probably kill the demon if we get its host during the day). I need to go back and look at PDV and MTC's behavior in more detail.
-Also, being possessed by a demon seems to change your affiliation. I suppose that means it's technically possible that either Revenn or Rithka were mafia originally. But that seems unlikely.
-BSS's listpost says that Kanaat is a "vanilla townie with a win condition that Keo is alive because of their mind link". In this case it looks like "failing a win condition" means being written out of the game. Maybe that's what happened to Aestrix as well?
-pistachi0n voted for No Lynch, tau, michaelblume, and Paradox, respectively.
Modrony, was the light you were talking about pistachi0n? Or is there a different light you were talking about? Obviously don't tell us *who* the light is if they're different, but knowing that there's a Town light left alive is going to change my suspicion levels against people who seem to be lying low (a good strategy for both mafia and power roles).
Suspicions
Knowing that there is potentially a mafia-aligned light makes me more suspicious of michaelblume/futurevision. Thisexchange about lights seems a lot more suspicious to me in retrospect.
I'm considering posting a full suspicion list like anthusiasm just did, but I need to take some time to think about everyone first.
Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Fri May 08, 2015 6:31 am
by modrony
suspicions
1. jalapeno_dude is suspicious to me.
They seem like the sort of person who would have seen the risks in the lists and opposed or at least let them slide.
Instead they advocated lists rather fiercely.
Checked them last night and they did not use an active power so at least we wouldn't be lynching one of those.
Also: They have voted with pistachi0n every night since the first one. I am not sure in which direction I should read that, but it is weird.
2. futurevision is less suspicious for having demonstrated a vote.
Also, there is a post by Alphabeta that I read as either an all-clear for me and kappa or telling me I was making a mistake.
I am still leaning on the former but it's possible it's the latter.
(this is the reason I was willing to give them the chance to demonstrate a vote yesterday)
I'll quote the post shortly.
On the other hand BSS vouching at the end of the last turn might make futurevision a prime target for demonjumping.
Not so clearly innocent that we could follow BSSs reasoning again but innocent enough that they are unlikely to get lynched.
3. It occurs to me that I might have made a mistake in believing so strongly that the person I saw on night 2 is a light.
I still do believe it's more likely than alternatives because BSS was reading so strongly as townie and did not die.
But BSS might have also been a natural target for a mafia roleblocker.
I'd like some discussion on whether or not I should disclose the name.
As said I still townread them pretty strongly but there has been some weird behaviour on their part and I am not quite so sure anymore.
If someone has a reason to believe that the mafia has a roleblocker they wish to reveal I would be very interested to hear it. (I would expect to have drawn a block at least once if they have one.)
Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Fri May 08, 2015 6:33 am
by modrony
@ jalapeno_dude
It was not pistachi0n.
Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Fri May 08, 2015 7:24 am
by modrony
Here are some things of AB:s that I read as clues.
I added my own interpretations of them. Feel free to make your own.
Original spoilerboxes removed. It seems nested boxes aren't supported.
Day 1
Alphabeta wrote:Alright, I'll vote Kappa, then, since he's the one who suggested the random voting first and I also don't like her list scheme.
Never voted for Kappa again. Likely the first thing he checked.
As a reminder, I want everyone to remember this list so that when I'm revealed as town you know who decided to get me killed on day one for basically no reason besides their desire to kill.
Included for completeness. He hadn't had time to check anyone yet, but he might have had some pre-information.
Day 2
Alphabeta wrote:I'm a tad suspicious of modrony, since it was apparently their idea to do this scheme back when in day 1 when it was actively counterproductive and based on things like writing voice and avatar. Of course, the fact that the definitely-murdered person was a powered person who didn't participate in the list scheme also seems indicative of something, but it's entirely possible I'm just taking the "tried to make me put effort into things" aspect of it too personally. Still, don't take this too seriously - I don't have anything more solid than this to back it up.
Also for completeness. Pretty clearly telling us it's not a hint.
Day 3
Alphabeta wrote:Okay, I think kappa started this list scheme without malice, but it was a mistake. Kappa is fallible and makes mistakes - we should remember that of all our community leaders.
This is the one I read as a clear for me and kappa.
Alphabeta wrote:
modrony wrote:
If you can't do that for some unfathomable reason, vote for me. I can take it.
Okay, I'm going to guess that demon-posessed people automatically lose if they admit that they are, and have the objective of getting the demon killed with them. So I say we kill modrony.
I can't be certain of my guess here, but it seems to fit the facts.
Alphabeta wrote:Alright, guess I'm wrong about that. Withdraw vote.
For completeness. Still do not think this theory is plausible.
Alphabeta wrote:Hm... yeah, if michaelblume doesn't want to play anymore, we might as well oblige him. Kill michaelblume.
For completeness. I do not think this is a hint.
Day 4
Alphabeta wrote:I think modrony is in fact Leekath. Which reminds me, do you have anything you'd like to tell us, modrony?
Pretty clear.
Alphabeta wrote:(from a spoilerbox. It seems nested boxes aren't supported.)
jalepeno_dude was trying to get people to participate in the list scheme even after modrony denounced it.
michaleblume is a dragon. My argument is invalid. ;)
Despite my distrust of Kappa in this game because she has been holding social power, he seems to actually be fine, if fallible.
As an introvert, I tend to think that calls to eliminate lurkers are suspicious. As I said, though, that's probably personal bias.
Clear for kappa again.
Alphabeta wrote:I'll vote Tulip since her revenge-vote on the Leekath instead of offering a decent explanation is suspicious.
For completeness.
Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Fri May 08, 2015 8:03 am
by Shoal
suspicions
I'm suspicious of michael, paradox, and tulip of being demons for not having talked yet. I think we should lynch one of them today, and hopefully the other two will talk so we don't have to choose at random. Saying anything susbtantial (not just bare voting like MTC did but voting + talking) is enough to clear them on these grounds.
I'm suspicious of futurevision and michael on the grounds that if the mafia had a light they might not be dragons after all. I think one of them had some claim that if the other died they wouldn't be town anymore but it was only one way? So I guess I'm suspicious of whichever one of those would flip to the anti-town alignment in the event of the other's death; that is I think we should lynch that one first in case they would gain a kill in response to the other's death. Too many deaths in this game as it is.
I am somewhat suspicious as to why modrony is still alive but I guess the town-light that isn't pistachi0n has been keeping them alive. If modrony is telling the truth then the light shouldn't claim publically because they'll just draw the night kill to them and that will be bad. I think maybe my lingering suspicion of modrony is just cached suspicion and I think being too suspicious of everyone can shoot us in the foot.
Anyway, I think killing the demon is our best today because BSS seems to have guessed the mechanic correctly yesterday by pointing her finger at MTC and most of us didn't believe it because MTC was confirmed town by wolffreak's death and then MTC flipped demon after all! So let's use the one chance we have to sort this out and kill the demon during the daytime. Tulip, michael, paradox, whichever two of you are not the demon you should do enough talking today so that we can know you don't have a post restriction.
Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Fri May 08, 2015 8:31 am
by modrony
Some speculation here in response to Shoal
reply to shoal
Shoal wrote:
I am somewhat suspicious as to why modrony is still alive but I guess the town-light that isn't pistachi0n has been keeping them alive.
I will be surprised if this turns out to be the case. I made it pretty clear that there were larger priorities out there.
Could still be the case if the clue truly was that impenetrable.
Most likely explanation to me is mafia having higher priority targets.
I now suspect that the night of no kill was mafias first hit bouncing off AB.
Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Fri May 08, 2015 8:36 am
by Shoal
at Anthusiasm
I'm having trouble figuring out who you're suspicious of from your list. There are a few people I'm not sure whether you are null on them or find them suspicious, so I'm going to write what I think you're thinking and you can tell me if I'm right or not?
You are leaning town on these people: anthusiasm, kappa, modrony, shoal
You are null on: tulip, tamien
You say both positive and negative things about these people and I'm not sure if you're null reading them or you're suspicious of them Are you also not sure? It's okay to be unsure:
Futurevision: Doesn't participate much, but has good excuses for doing so, and I sympathize. Has claimed that they are town unless michaelblume is killed.
Jalapeno_dude: I have residual suspicions from the last game but nothing definitive either way.
Michaelblume: Sick. Seemed more active this game than he was last game before illness, but I think that's because we seem to collectively view non-participatory people as being suspicious.
Paradox: Has made several pro-town observations. Gets kind of defensive when people vote for them, which is weird, but it would be hypocritical of me to call that suspicious since I get panicky when people vote for me, too.
