Alicornutopia

I forgot to do this before when I said I would, so here it is now:
I will be here at the end of the day.

I agree that futurevision should know better than to suggest not lynching anybody, so I’ll vote futurevision. I’ll be back tonight to read the defense, post my night 4 plans, etc.

The two people with the most generalized suspicion: I trust Shoal, but I don’t know why, so I should probably examine his posts more closely. Perhaps it’s because I approve of learning more about people. I’ll have a revised opinion by nightfall. I trust pistachi0n because michaelblume seems to be a good guy and pistachi0n seems to want to protect him from lynching. I’d like to know more about Alphabeta, but I said earlier that I trust him to be town-compatible if not pro-town, and that for the moment at least it’s better to leave him alive.

I expect to no longer have internet access in 30 minutes, and then I will be on an airplane or in airports for about 13 hours, and I am not sure what my internet access will be like for the next week after that, but I expect to have at least some, and to be able to participate on mobile. I think I will not have access to my cryptography keys.

I think I should probably vote for someone, and I'm pretty convinced that everyone should. I'm not actually sure who to vote for.
I think Alphabeta is probably actually Addy and not mafia, because Addy is a template that is more likely to happen and otherwise there would be too great a risk of someone else actually being Addy and calling him on it.

I think we should probably not kill Alphabeta, DanielH, or michaelblume, and I am not voting for killing me.
This leaves: Aestrix, futurevision, jalapeno_dude, kuuskytkolme, no.head.chicken, Ozymandias, Paradox, pistachi0n, Shoal, Tamien, tau, and Thatwasademo.
If I number them that's 1. Aestrix, 2. futurevision, 3. jalapeno_dude, 4. kuuskytkolme, 5. no.head.chicken, 6. Ozymandias, 7. Paradox, 8. pistachi0n, 9. Shoal, 10. Tamien, 11. tau, and 12. Thatwasademo.
I think I successfully set up a randomly generated number between 1 and 12 to open later (I think 3/28, but I'm not sure what timezone).
I vote for killing whoever corresponds to the number this generator picks.

If you think someone else should die, or that this person should not die, feel free to vote and get other people to also vote. I don't think I will have internet access at the end of the game day, so I will not be able to change this.

I'll also vote for futurevision. Not 100% sure of my vote, but if I waffle on it any more the accused won't get as much chance to defend themselves.

...I know we're supposed to be voting early but I've really been having trouble working out who to vote for. I'll be around until nightfall, though. But for I guess I'll vote for... I have no idea I guess futurevision since his last statement was pretty questionable, as other people have pointed out. But if he comes along and defends himself admirably I'll likely switch to someone else.

@BlueSkySprite: The generator looks good, and should open in about 4 hours (midnight UTC). That gives plenty of time before end of day. I’m not sure if the mods will count it, though; they said they won’t honor complex precommitments. I expect the airplane and simplicity might work as a reason though.

@Mods, assuming that an integer between 1 and 12 inclusive does in fact appear there before in-game nightfall, and that BlueSkySprite doesn’t post here in the meantime, will you count that vote?

I don't really understand how voting "No Lynch" is any better than explicitly abstaining, and I don't see anyone getting lynched for recommending that. I actually thought that it would prevent the mafia from having the extra control over the voting, since if "No Lynch" is the majority they couldn't force us to lynch one of our own. Could someone explain to me why it is bad for townspeople? A majority of us voted not to kill anyone on the first day, so I'm not quite sure why it's so bad.

futurevision wrote:I don't really understand how voting "No Lynch" is any better than explicitly abstaining, and I don't see anyone getting lynched for recommending that. I actually thought that it would prevent the mafia from having the extra control over the voting, since if "No Lynch" is the majority they couldn't force us to lynch one of our own. Could someone explain to me why it is bad for townspeople? A majority of us voted not to kill anyone on the first day, so I'm not quite sure why it's so bad.

At this time, there are 16 people alive: (cribbing from BBS's list because it's right here in front of me)

Alphabeta, DanielH, michaelblume, BlueSkySprite, Aestrix, futurevision, jalapeno_dude, kuuskytkolme, no.head.chicken, Ozymandias, Paradox, pistachi0n, Shoal, Tamien, tau, and Thatwasademo.

At least one of these people, and probably more, in a game of this size it is almost surely more than 2, but probably less than or equal to 4. If there are 4 mafia, then choosing at random we have a 1 in 4 chance of getting the right person. All the rest of the numbers assumes there are 4 mafia. The odds are slightly less good if there are only 3 but I think they are still good enough. If we narrow it down just a little bit: each person who is not guilty knows for sure that they are not, people who have night time actions may know that a few other people are not guilty, then our chances become better. If we use our intuition and our knowledge of players from how they've been behaving in this thread, we can do a little better still, and if everybody was a little bit more active then we would have more knowledge for that last step and more to base our opinions on.

So based on some combination of intuition, the statements of some people like Alpha and Ozy* who have roleclaimed, night actions (if I have any, which I likely don't: 3 of the 4 revealed templates who were killed either in the night or in the day have not been power roles), and ruling myself out because I know what my own alignment is (innocent in case anyone was curious), I think my own guessing odds are about 1 in 3. Maybe some other people with better intuition or night actions other than sleeping could get the odds down to 1 in 2.

*I'm not sure why I'm inclined to believe Ozy when they said so little but maybe it is the way they phrased it, how they said that they just wanted to make sure that we weren't left wondering if a Darcy would have had powers after they died, because we definitely would have wondered. They were sure that they were going to die and so they gave us information that would have helped us posthumously.



Anyway, however the numbers fall out, I think the numbers are fairly good that we could kill a mafia guy today.

But what if we voted no lynch? Well, during the night 1 innocent person will die, so then we'll be down to 15 people. If we continue to vote no lynch, we'll next be down to 14, and 13, 12... It's true that we might get a little bit more information each night from Addy, if he can clear people for us the way he cleared Daniel, and that will help in the days to come.

voting no lynch is basically saying "we don't know, but maybe tomorrow when there are less of us around we'll know more, and we'll know enough more that we can do something then that we can't do today". I think we all did feel like that on day 1, but it's not day 1 anymore, we've already lost 1 power role and we may lose another tonight, or the following night.

tl;dr: no lynch means there is a 0% chance that we decrease the numbers of the mafia. if there are 4 mafia then we have a 25% chance just by picking blindly and that might be improved to 33% or 50% by considering the people we've gotten to know so far. if there are 3 mafia then we have an 19% chance of hitting one if we pick blindly and maybe double that if we think about it.

Shoal, regardless of all that, which is a pretty reasonable explanation of our odds, you keep calling Ozy "she". Could you stop doing that?

whoops, thanks for correcting me. I've been thinking of him as Darcy in my head. I had to keep correcting myself from calling alpha female too (because Addy is female). Pronouns are hard. I'll keep trying though.