Day 2 Spam: SPAM HARDER

[pistachi0n]

So Kappa's main suspicions are two people who didn't make a list post and Tau, who wasn't on Kappa's list of list posts. So this doesn't tell us anything if she were ordering it based on suspicion.

[Shoal]

yeah -- unfortunately because it doesn't give us data but fortunately because it means none of us are on kappa's supsicions -- later we can ask him if there's an update on who has posted lists. should give it a while until more people have posted them though.

I predict Aestrix is facepalming somewhere right now about the voting thing. people are suspecting modrony. when, like, obviously, the people who were voting before aestrix came out (especially directly before (me)) are more suspicious than the townies who unvoted.

[Shoal]

i mean how could aestrix be pointing to modrony specifically as suspicious whenit hadn't happened yet?

[Tamien]

I composed my suspicion list with me and jalapeno_dude at the bottom (I think jalapeno_dude has generally been appearing the most protown of all of us, plus, you know, Fearless Leader and all), random low-suspicion section including Shoal, random moderate-suspicion section including pistachi0n and Tulip (since we actually want people to investigate Tulip, and we need to plausibly throw pistachi0n under the bus eventually), and a high-suspicion section mainly composed of suspicions people had just posted :P I actually did go through the thread and adjust people based on how protown they seemed aside from that though.

If this seems reasonable to everyone, I will continue to put forth lists in this manner.

[Shoal]

that sounds entirely reasonable and i might sheep you about that (not your exact list, but the randomisation part. I'll move the regular townies according to what townShoal would think.) I won't do it this time due to not having time and also not wanting to admit to peeking at all the lists before producing mine. but down the track yeah, sounds great.)

next time you won't have to reread the whole thread, you can just find your previous list and start adjusting from there, so less work each day instead of incrementally more work.

This time I intend to produce a list with about three names, one from each of 3 townies lists, with whatever plausible reasons that i can generate that are not the exact same as what that townie wrote.

[Shoal]

after these threads are made public i wonder how much longer people will accept the aimlessly confused being that townShoal is because mafiaShoal is a lot less lost. TownShoal isn't an act, it's really that bad at intuitive reading of people and hasn't found a good surrogate yet (though I'm working on a few ideas. I do have one that shows promise but it's going to be so much work. the jist of it is keeping track of how everybody relates to everybody else in a thread and how their opinions of each other change over time. if I'm right, after a few test games, I should be able find relational cues between mafia teams that way, such as discrepencies in what they say about other people vs their voting patterns, the kind of things you can't completely hide over the course of a 100 page game.)

[Shoal]

jalapeno do you want me to ask you to explain your case against wolf here or in the public thread? that is, what private information are you suggesting that wolf has? i'll ask it publically if you have an answer you want to share with everybody, but i'm asking it privately in case the answer is "I'm just trying to cast suspicion on wolf don't read too much into it"

[jalapeno_dude]

jalapeno do you want me to ask you to explain your case against wolf here or in the public thread? that is, what private information are you suggesting that wolf has? i'll ask it publically if you have an answer you want to share with everybody, but i'm asking it privately in case the answer is "I'm just trying to cast suspicion on wolf don't read too much into it"

Basically just trying to get wolf to reveal the source of her knowledge. You are welcome to ask me publicly if you think it's in character for Town!Shoal, but I have no convincing answer to give in the game thread.

What I actually think is going on: wolf said that she thought Aestrix and MTC (and only them) weren't suspicious. The reason for the first is obviously that Aestrix revealed herself to be the mafia traitor. It's not as clear why she doesn't find MTC to be suspicious. If we accept the premise that MTC is Leekath and Kappa is Talyn, the simplest explanation is that wolf has some sort of investigation power which she used on MTC and determined her to be innocent. If this is true, then by consulting wolf's rolelist we find she's probably Kaylo. (It's also possible that wolf has a communication channel with MTC and that's why she's saying MTC isn't suspicious, but that requires us to be wrong about MTC=Leekath--instead we'd have MTC/wolf as Keo/Kanaat or Malyn/Rithka. I think this is less likely.)

Not going to run through that logic in the game thread, obviously. :p

[Shoal]

thanks! townshoal probably would ask in public but i don't think people are going to notice that I specifically didn't ask you about it. mafiaShoal thinks it's best to let it lie. noticing absences of interaction between each other, small lacks of questions here and there is harder for town. i'm trying to do it at the moment elsewhere and just compiling the evidence to come to a conclusion has taken 15733 characters of typing and I'm only about 2/3rds done. bleh :)

[Shoal]

http://alicorn.elcenia.com/board/viewto ... ead#p11705

Kappa is suspicious of MTC! but is she really suspicious or he is just trying to make sure he doesn't get nightkilled for appearing too towny? but then they don't know what method we're choosing and last time's killers all cited "whoever i didn't think could be traced back to me" so that's probably not it.