Alicornutopia

I now have reliable internet, and so should be able to post more frequently! I expect to be primarily online in the afternoons and nights (but not mornings or evenings) PDT.

modrony is not who I would have expected the killers to target. I would have expected the killers to choose mostly-randomly from the set of people who hadn't had much attention drawn to them, since they (probably) don't have enough information to select high-value targets yet, and want to avoid drawing suspicion to themselves. But I suppose if the killers are not the people who were involved in the conversations with modrony, then they might kill modrony in order to cast suspicion on whoever modrony was arguing against (I don't feel like reading all the way back right now to determine who spoke to or about modrony; I'll do it later).

I wonder if the killers didn't target BSS specifically because of my comment (or because of reasoning similar to the reasoning behind my comment) before nightfell that if I were Chris I would protect her. Maybe they felt the real Chris (if there was one) would feel the same way and it would be a waste to try to kill BSS in the night when she would probably be protected and they could rely on us to lynch her in the morning when she was still alive.

Mafia is a lot like that "Guess 2/3 of the average" game. You can't guess 67 because 67 is 2/3rds of a 100 and nobody is going to guess 100. Most people will realise that, so guessing 2/3 of 67 (44ish) is also too high. But guessing 1 doesn't work with most groups because not everybody will take the recursion that far and if at least one person guesses a number above 1 then 1 won't be the answer. Similarly, we have to guess how far the killers will take the "I know you know that i know that you know" recursion and they have to try to guess how far we will.

Shoal wrote:I wonder if the killers didn't target BSS specifically because of my comment (or because of reasoning similar to the reasoning behind my comment) before nightfell that if I were Chris I would protect her. Maybe they felt the real Chris (if there was one) would feel the same way and it would be a waste to try to kill BSS in the night when she would probably be protected and they could rely on us to lynch her in the morning when she was still alive.

I thought something similar when I made my crypto'd prediction, yes.

Here's my report. Also, after some thought, I decided to add some coded stuff for (possible) later perusal (the stuff being my suspicions). See I'm not always very good at coming up with arguments of why I think someone might or might not be guilty and so I usually play Mafia by intuition*, which means that often as not my argument for voting one way or another is mostly 'it feels right', which, especially if I survive long enough, might start to seem suspicious. I've decided to try and keep a list of who I might suspect/think to be innocent** at any point, give everyone in the game numeric values of how much I suspect/think them innocent (starting with 0 for everyone) and change those values depending on how I feel about that persons' innocence at any moment. I'll publish that list (encrypted) and maybe if I can't actually explain why I think someone suspicious at some point, I can give the key*** and then say 'see, I was starting to suspect them since day 5, it only grew afterwards' or something.

*In RL my intuition is often times more accurate than my logical extrapolations (I've pretty much decided that my subconscious has better deduction skills than my conscious mind and isn't sharing). Depending on how much it is reliant on things like body language/tone of voice it may or may not hold true in this game.
**Also, FYI I'm more likely to think people innocent than suspect them..
***Will post all list entries under same key.

Disclaimer: the list is of highly subjective opinions. I might end up giving someone less suspicion if I seem to like them as a person, like they're argument on some subject etc. On the other hand, I might have a power and this list is based on that. Or maybe I'm just trying to make the mafia think I have a power. Or I'm mafia and I'm trying to establish how I'm really really not. Or I'm just trying to give this game more thought than I usually do to a Mafia game. I don't know guys, I just want to keep a list, and someone will suggest possible motives for doing so and I'm trying to preemptively offer up the explanations I can think up and now I feel embarrassed and why did I even bother with this...

that sounds like a good project, chicken.

I might non crypto fairy tonigjt, but I will within the next 18 hours. I think some people probably have enough information to make an informed choice, but nobody's coming forward. Of the various people I mentioned as being various amounts of suspiciois earlier, most have come forward with some sort of defense. Other people have defended BlueSkySprite, but she has not personally defended herself. The killers did not fall for the extremely obvious trap of openly-as-killers answering why they didn't kill certain people.

This leaves michaelblume. He obviously understands enough about cryptography to either misuse encryption like the rest of us or to salt and hash his role, he observed the cryptography discussions, and yet he has neither actually made an encrypted or hashed roleclaim nor explained why he will not. Moreover, this game is more likely to be interesting with active participants, and he is one of the least so. I'm quite willing to change my mind, but for now, in order to get the ball rolling, I vote we lynch michaelblume.

Works for me. I'm not sure how reliable a signal of guilt crypto-nonparticipation is likely to be, but it's probably better than nothing. Voting michaelblume.

Since he's been steering the lynch discussion toward a small subset of people and trying to make it about lynching only them, I vote to lynch DanielH.

I'm far from convinced that michaelblume should be lynched but the crypto-nonparticipation thing does raise some questions and I think we need to lynch somebody (we can't just wait around for the killers to pick us off one by one...). So, I vote lynch michaelblume. I'm quite likely to change this based on michaelblume's response, if arguments are made for someone else being a better lynch target or if someone else says anything suspicious.

Hey, sorry I've been so quiet, it was a busy weekend and I haven't yet managed to read through the game backlog. Hashed claims about my role below:

78c61b6b22f8554dfcb8f6e1aa9ce05cf4b1ed3a9d899532b30b8d37383f3ba8

Upshot: you probably don't want to kill me. Unless you're a bad guy, then you should totally try to kill me.