Alicornutopia

So maybe michaelblume/futurevision are an Ilen/Hallai pair? Not ruled out by futurevision's list post.

Also, it seems reasonably likely that people are about to stop voting for futurevision. Should we pick someone to bandwagon on? It would be awesome if modrony ends up being townkilled, but it might be a hard sell...

I thought Paradox was genuinely suspicious but I don't want people following me on a wagon. Unless one of you is in danger.

You guys could pick Tamien and watch her not get lynched.

Modrony would probably be the easiest non-mafia at this point. A lot of people were unsettled by her actions yesterday.

pistachi0n wrote:Modrony would probably be the easiest non-mafia at this point. A lot of people were unsettled by her actions yesterday.

That would be great, but we should be very careful here, since when she dies and is revealed to be town the people who started things will look very suspicious. Ideally we could bait Kappa into doing it--the two of them seem to be disagreeing a fair amount lately.

Futurevision was the first to vote for modrony. But town still finds her fairly suspicious.

I note that both Alphabeta and BSS are voting for Tulip, who attacked Alphabeta last night. Given Tulip's power I don't see how Alphabeta could know that, though...

Also, if a couple of people flip from futurevision the vote could be very close. We should all be prepared to intervene at the last minute if Tulip is in danger (especially if Kappa flips, which is effectively 2 votes). If at all possible, please try to be on the forums in the ~half hour before the vote. Shoal and Tamien should be able to switch their votes without raising much suspicion if others have also flipped from futurevison, and Tulip will obviously be acting in self-defense, so we're well equipped to save Tulip if we need to without much of a problem.

It's worth noting that it's completely in-character for Innocent!Tulip to do a last-minute vote-flip from modrony to futurevision if it turns out to be necessary; she specifically stated that it's not worth throwing someone she doesn't suspect under the bus for a small boost to her chance at survival, but in the end, she knows she's innocent, whereas she models futurevision as having slightly-higher-than-base-rate odds of being scum, so she will do it if it looks like it'll actually be decisive to the vote.

http://alicorn.elcenia.com/board/viewto ... 710#p12594

this post of BlueSkySprite's is the really excellent kind of work that town players should be doing more of to analyse people's behaviour and see how they're behaving overall.

But as far as I can tell it didn't actually get her to re-evaluate her suspicions! Or at least she didn't change her vote...