Alicornutopia

Alphabeta wrote:So, I'm being bandwagoned because of some disagreements on what is a good idea, one genuine mistake of procedure, and my fucking writing voice. I'm tempted to jump on Aestrix for the sake of survival, but I don't want to stoop that low considering that I don't actually have any clues as to her identity, so I'll go with no lynch. When I'm confirmed by the mods as town, I want you all to remember who bandwagoned onto me.

I'm about in the same boat, except replace all of yours with 'Because the RNG said so.'

But, it seems unfair to jump on your bandwagon to save my own skin, and also sketchy as hell. If one of us dies today, it's been an honor being singled out as targets by the town with you.

I'm not really convinced for the arguments to vote anyone, so I'm going to refrain from casting a vote (for now).

Paradox wrote:My problem is more deciding on what I want my avatar to be than finding a picture of it. I'll try and think of something to use and put it up sometime today.

Got one, I'll keep it for this game to avoid confusion but I'll probably change sometime after it's over.

@jalapeno_dude: I actually thought about the possibilities you brought up, or at least #1 and #3. #2 somewhat less so, admittedly, but that one seems strongly counter to Alphabeta's normal view on information dissemination. The other two are both genuinely plausible, though. #3 somewhat less than #1, since I'd expect him to know that that sort of meta-plot is much harder to make work than just not acting suspicious in the first place would have been. But I still think there's a... not good, but at least better-than-random chance that #0* or #3 are true, and he's actually scum. Therefore, I'm going to change my vote to Alphabeta.

@ everyone saying we're only voting based on voicing over actual substance: nope, we're not. I'll grant that his voicing probably is biasing us against him a bit more than we should be, but it's not the only factor. When I was compiling my list of suspicious activities, I went out of my way to only list actions without any social cues attached, precisely because they're much less easily biased by that sort of thing than social cues are.

* #0 referring to the "no, he's actually not being deliberate about it" hypothesis.

thanks paradox, i appreciate the avatar.

vote: alphabeta.

rng has an x/19 chance of being right. let's say that's about 1/5 because last time (counting daniel), we started out with 20% scum, but we don't know how many we have this time so it could be closer to 1/4 or hopefully 1/6 (this would mean there are so few scum we'd have an easy time as town, even if it's harder to guess right by random chance on day 1). The rng can't take into account how the 19 of us have been acting over these 21 pages. To take this argument to the extreme, if someone comes out and says "I'm scum vote for me" in thread, the RNG can't take that into account. I doubt that'll happen, but every single post in this thread, all 203 of them as of this writing, contain information written by people who are each playing to their win condition, which for most of us is trying to interact with each other so that we can find who is more likely to be the killers.

gut feelings based on 21 pages of interaction is never going to be 100%, I'd be surprised if we could even be 50% sure on day 1, but it's always going to be better than RNG. Nobody but the killers is 100% sure of anything on day 1. The RNG is permanently 20% (or however many %) sure. The killers are 100% sure of who is innocent or not. I guess I'm about 35% sure of my vote on alpha which is good enough for day 1 gut feelings.

vote Alphabeta, my reasons are in the spoiler text of my last post. I'll elaborate more if anyone has questions.

I'm on mobile, could someone please put another unofficial vote count?

Aestrix: 4 (anthusiasm, DanielH, jalapeno_dude, PlainDealingVillain)
Alphabeta: 6 (Kappa, michaelblume, modrony, Shoal, Tamien, Tulip)
No lynch: 5 (Aestrix, Alphabeta, BlueSkySprite, pistachi0n, wolffreak567)

Aestrix wrote:Alphabeta: 6 (Kappa, michaelblume, modrony, Shoal, Tamien, Tulip)

As a reminder, I want everyone to remember this list so that when I'm revealed as town you know who decided to get me killed on day one for basically no reason besides their desire to kill.

Ok, so I like modrony's method a lot and it seems like it spat out an answer, which is good. Still, I didn't do the "write the thing down on the piece of paper" bit, which I should have done, so I don't feel comfortable participating in this vote now that my opinion has been biased. And additionally though I disagree with Alphabeta on a number of points (I think the listposts are a good idea, etc) I don't think his disagreement with them makes him mafia. So I'm going to abstain from this vote and follow procedure correctly from now on for the rest of them.

Aestrix wrote:Aestrix: 4 (anthusiasm, DanielH, jalapeno_dude, PlainDealingVillain)
Alphabeta: 6 (Kappa, michaelblume, modrony, Shoal, Tamien, Tulip)
No lynch: 5 (Aestrix, Alphabeta, BlueSkySprite, pistachi0n, wolffreak567)

Isn't pistashi0n voting Alphabeta? I think there's a name in the wrong place here.