Alicornutopia

we can keep them from knowing who we are by being somewhat co-ordinated in the end in our mad scramble. For example if 2 townies are voting town then only two of us need to pile on, or only one of us + the rest of us voting someone else. I mean even when we were madscrambling to save aestrix and then not save aestrix and aestrix told them to look at the votes they still didn't figure it out so i don't think they'll figure all of us out regardless.

During the day we can try scumhunting. we can also try buddying, especially if done subtlely. When someone makes a point that we like one of us can sidle up to them. "oh you're probably right about that" "oh, ok that makes sense" "i think you're town by the way".

Even if only one of us lives to the end all of us will win posthumously. It seems I'm best poised to be that person, though I'd like it best if all three of us lived until the game is called in our favour. If we have to throw someone under the bus it'll probably be jalapeno but hopefully it won't come to that. it will be worth it if it will let one or two of us live to the end by gaining towncredit but it won't be worth it if we could just end the game now in our favour so we should vote town this game day. only if all 3 of them are united against one of us at the end of the day in the mad scramble should we bus. Making it come down the coin will look really suspicious because that's a voting block of 3.

The demon seems to be killing every other night so after the lynch, two people are probably going to die and hopefully the extra is a townie.

I think we have to target paradox then modrony with our nightkill (in the event that some of us are still successfully in hiding) and then after that we should be trying to get the demon because paradox and modrony are about as much a threat to us as the demon.

only if all 3 of them are united against one of us at the end of the day in the mad scramble should we bus

Do you think this is worth doing? If there's a tie there's a 50% chance we essentially win the game on the coinflip right there, plus a decent chance of winning the game even if we lose the coinflip and are all revealed as mafia (I worked out the math in the demonless case above, and it comes out to 2*(1/6+1/24)=5/12=42%), so for this to be worth it you'd have to believe that there's a *significantly* better than 50% chance those left alive can win the game on subsequent days, even taking into account the potential for demon kills and possession.

it's past my bedtime so i don't know. and the demon probably changes what my intuition is saying because i dont know how to account for it. i don't even know what it does. does it change win condition? if so then a mafia who is possessed should choose to pass it on to mafia because it's looking like mafia is going to win this and that's the best way for the demon to survive to the end. if not then a mafia who is possessed should pass it back to a townie so even if they die our team still wins.

and which one it is will change the maths.

discounting the demon i think that in 3 person LYLO i could win this for mafia. accounting for the demon i don't know.

I think we should only throw someone under the bus if we're really sure.

I have no clue how to account for the demon. I could plausibly roleclaim Ahin if I could come up with reasons for targeting who I have. I'll think about it.

Tamien wrote:I have no clue how to account for the demon. I could plausibly roleclaim Ahin if I could come up with reasons for targeting who I have. I'll think about it.

Still not sure it's actually a good idea. But accounting for kappa night 1, BSS night 2, and modrony night 5 is pretty easy. The harder ones are anthusiasm and Paradox on nights 3 and 4. But it looks like you never voted against anyone you investigated, so it would be hard for anyone to refute you if you said you trusted them. (I guess you'd also want to go through your suspicion lists, but it's easier to justify those as false-flag things.)

Uncertainties about the demon:
-Who determines its actions. The most recently possessed person, or random chance/THE COIN, or Alicorn/Nemo acting according to its win condition.
-Whether the person who's possessed knows that they're possessed, and, if so, whether their win conditions change.
-If it does indeed get to kill someone on the nights it takes a new host, whether that action comes before or after the mafia kill in the order of operations.
-Whether someone is revealed as demon if they've been possessed for only one day, or only if they die after two full days of possession (in this case Tulip could have been possessed and the demon could now be dead).
-What the demon's win condition is. (Though, if it has one, it's probably effectively going to be "be the last person left alive" since it's definitely anti-Town and it seems like our own win condition is anti-it).

I was willing to do the math three times depending on whether it was one of us, active Town, or michaelblume, and even willing to split it based on whether its nightkill was before or after ours, but once I realized that it might not be acting at random and that I didn't know if possessed peoples' win conditions changed I gave up. Heuristically, if it acts randomly there are two effects: one from its host dying tonight, which is slightly in our favor because there are 4 possible Town hosts and only 3 possible Mafia hosts (and I think there's some nontrivial probability it doesn't take Mafia hosts at all), and one from it killing someone else tonight, which goes against the faction that has more members left at the end of the day. So I think on net it improves our odds in this case, but it makes everything a lot more random and less dependent on skill/social manipulation (e.g. we don't automatically win if we lynch a Townie today like we would without its presence).

modrony wrote:So here is what I have so far.
night 1: Kappa: no action.
night 2: *** targets BSS.
night 3: Shoal: no action.
night 4: jalapeno_dude: no action.
night 5: Tulip: no action.

Hmm, modrony has scarily good instincts in targeting. Kappa plus 4/5 mafia in 5 nights. Shoal, guess you're not in as deep cover as you thought you were. NOTE FOR FUTURE MODRONY: You are really good at this game! Trust your instincts and keep doing whatever you're doing to generate suspicions.

Censoring Tamien's name suggests modrony still thinks she's the light.

Also, I guess we now know that either Kappa's action comes before modrony's or modrony was protected last night (or both). If modrony's power distinguishes "no action" from "person was dead at the time power was used" then it's the latter.

yeah, modrony is doing great. now we have to do that awful thing where we chip away at her confidence. preferably by not obviously appearing to do so and without hurting the player behind the monitor.

If Tamien lives until the end instead of me I will be just as happy about our win.

I think Tamien shouldn't claim unless people are being suspicious of her and she's looking like a serious lynch candidate because Modrony can back up her light claim and she can say that she didn't want to claim earlier for fear of being a night kill target. she can claim to have been protecting modrony all this time if need be.

modrony's logic is really sound. because there are 4 townies left. modrony thinks one of the townies is a light. so there are 2 townies going places at night and 2 townies sitting at home. there are 2 people on that list (me and jalapeno) who are sitting at home. 75% chance that at least one of us is scum. fuck.

OKAY NOBODY POINT THAT OUT

i'm giving them good advice. but hopefully it won't matter. I mean, a mad scramble at the end will make some things easier for us. but so would everyone precommiting to not do anything useful and to vote whoever. we could all just vote somehow and then give up until alicorn tallies it for us. why bother. that's what i think of precommiting. I think either strategy can play into our hands if we do it right but precommitting is lazy and I've been against precommittments all game since i understood it was more than just planning to do something or intending to do something.

It literally is like going to play monty hall and precommitting to not switch from Door 1 to whatever door is left after 17 doors have been opened to reveal goats.

should i be claiming ahin at this point? i'm considering posting something vague like "i targeted BSS on night 2. i have targeted someone every night, and no one i have targeted has died the night i targeted them". does this sound good? i could make it more specific. i'm just worried about paradox counter-claiming if i say ahin particularly. please advise