Alicornutopia

Also removed my public key. As you can see, that post has been edited exactly once, and the message matches the one the index says I do.

neat.

well i still don't know who to vote against but i guess we have some time yet. I think my main reasons for still not liking lynching are that this is probably going to be a longish game and it would suck to be voted out on day 1, but somebody's going to be voted out on night 1 anyway and they'll still be able to spectate afterward at least. i have played this in real life a few times a long time ago and I remember that I didn't mind so much being lynched because then I could keep my eyes open during the night phase. I don't think the dead will be able to do that in this format, though.

But game theory wise everything i've read suggests lynching on day 1 is the way to go and random accusations and seeing how people respond to them. and as townies -- and we're all either actually townies or supposed to be pretending to be townies in public -- our win conditions require that we eventually lynch the killers, and that we can lose through inaction because our shots aren't guaranteed to hit a real killer but they might, whereas a killer's shots are definitely going to be aimed at an innocent person. We have a non zero chance of lynching the killer and the killer has a zero chance of killing themself in the night as far as i understand it. And if there are more than one killers, once they've picked off enough townspeople to have a majority, that's game over for us.

I'm not going to bother removing my public key, since I have no reason to expect anyone to try to use it to communicate with me, and having zero edits will let me avoid having an asterisked name in DanielH's index.

Also, I've gotten myself an icon. I had to very slightly compress the image to get it under the 6kb limit, but I don't think it negatively impacted the quality any more than shrinking it to 100x100 already had.

pretty!

Shoal wrote:neat.

well i still don't know who to vote against but i guess we have some time yet. I think my main reasons for still not liking lynching are that this is probably going to be a longish game and it would suck to be voted out on day 1, but somebody's going to be voted out on night 1 anyway and they'll still be able to spectate afterward at least. i have played this in real life a few times a long time ago and I remember that I didn't mind so much being lynched because then I could keep my eyes open during the night phase. I don't think the dead will be able to do that in this format, though.

But game theory wise everything i've read suggests lynching on day 1 is the way to go and random accusations and seeing how people respond to them. and as townies -- and we're all either actually townies or supposed to be pretending to be townies in public -- our win conditions require that we eventually lynch the killers, and that we can lose through inaction because our shots aren't guaranteed to hit a real killer but they might, whereas a killer's shots are definitely going to be aimed at an innocent person. We have a non zero chance of lynching the killer and the killer has a zero chance of killing themself in the night as far as i understand it. And if there are more than one killers, once they've picked off enough townspeople to have a majority, that's game over for us.

Rules-balance wise, the killers shouldn't have anything close to a majority at the start or we're fucked every time. Therefore, you're trying to get an additional innocent killed. Maybe we should lynch you?

I encrypted my role so you guys can check that I wasn't lying when I said I was a townsperson at the end of the game/if I get lynched.

QX8TfAe/hkUg7dCj+pQPieW6vhwWuwYROITRbUvj+WU0vaa3FK3SYMTcYPAupJ4imYTRvCo8/l56NC07QSDcv1XoQ3rl1ikaC/PURMhiIZYGm+tKRMl7HICdSe3stqzwt1gScy++4b1vpbSdDyQogPkogdZLZBCDSVxdYof74co=

-----BEGIN PUBLIC KEY-----
MIGeMA0GCSqGSIb3DQEBAQUAA4GMADCBiAKBgFptFDO5t/TCHfRcgrUwdtH8YlIB
F2g93b1r/H5jXeC0kYBLUI4K42k8Wi7Bki16vSOjLW6YkXo5MJMHhMv+a57Nu6sx
NPzHm5NlYkbOB+Cj/M/7kh6tMDyLVkzeQxFp8PNB6vQiiONbk7+Iq52ZTD/uEjJG
pV4MQXAOgP4ix+crAgMBAAE=
-----END PUBLIC KEY-----

I’m not sure how encryption will help with that. When you die we learn your role; when you reveal your public key the encrypted thing matches whatever you put in there which may or may not be “townsperson” and may or may not be true. In any case, I’ve added it to the index.

Alpha, if I was trying to get an innocent person killed for nefarious reasons I would at least try to argue that someone specifically should be killed.

I've been reading through the articles here mainly http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Main_Page

I wasn't sure whether to link it or not because obviously the killers can read it too but there are almost certainly more town players than killers and the more people learn strategy the better.

I mean, obviously, if we're going to lynch anybody we1ll have to lynch someone in specific, but I think it's premature to point fingers at me when I'm not pointing fingers at anybody myself.

withdraw my no lynch vote but don't cast it for anybody yet

When is the deadline for the end of day 1?

@Shoal
The deadline is 60 hours after Alicorn’s first post, which is about 36 hours from now.

@Alphabeta
Yes, the person Shoal is trying to get lynched is probably innocent. But, according to him (I haven’t done as much research on mafia games with roles, and the without-roles arguments aren’t very useful to this game because they depend on parity), the benefit of potentially lynching a killer outweighs the downside of potentially lynching an innocent. This is because without lynching anybody today, the first person to die is guaranteed to be innocent (assuming one group of killers all known to each other). At some point we’ll need to lynch; we don’t want to wait until the numbers are even, and people often reasonably don’t want to reveal private information. I’m not sure if he’s correct about this benefit outweighing the cost at the moment, but it makes sense that it would be true at some point.

@Everybody
If we are going to lynch somebody, we have to agree on who or the No Lynch vote wins. As at least most of us have little if any actual information at this point, and anybody with information isn’t coming forward, I propose we lynch somebody at random. In slightly less than four hours (a bit after midnight UTC), this page should contain a random integer between one and twenty inclusive; there is no way to know until then what number it will be. We can use the list of players, which Alicorn has nicely alphebatized in the first post, to match this number to a player. For example, if that number turns out to be 1, we lynch Aestrix; if that number turns out to be 5 we lynch me, etc.

I think everybody who wants to lynch a player should decide, before that page gives a number, to lynch whoever this method turns up. Exceptions can of course be made for lynching yourself, because presumably you know that No Lynch is better than lynching an innocent townsperson which you know yourself to be.

I precommit now to, if I am convinced that lynching is appropriate and no further evidence turns up, change my vote to lynching the person that page comes up with (unless that person is me, in which case I’ll stay on No Lynch). I am not saying now that I am convinced lynching is the right option; if I continue to fail to be convinced, I’ll vote No Lynch of course. I am leaning in favor of lynching, but not far enough to actually precommit to definitely going for it. In the meantime, I withdraw my vote until I’ve decided. I cannot credibly precommit, but I did bring up the Lynch All Liers strategem.

@Gods
Is this allowed? If not, then I won’t check that page when it’s supposed to come into existence.

EDIT: I added the query about legality and the @everybody tag in case people thought it was a several-paragraph message just for Αβ. Then I edited again to add this edit log, which I forgot the first time.