The cult wins, traditionally, if there are no nightkill powers (factional or otherwise) in the game and they control the vote (since they can then become the only faction in the game by voting out all townies). Lack of communication shouldn't affect this.
(oh hey Shoal post): Actually, we would have had a better chance of winning with 6 players alive today than with 5 if the extra player added wasn't a killer or cultist.
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 5:47 pm
by pistachi0n
Why is nobody else suspicious of BlueSkySprite? Even on the first day, she hinted at having a strong power role and she's been passed over as a target ever since.
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 5:49 pm
by Shoal
BlueSkySprite wrote:I think he is assuming you win if you achieve half or more of the town's population, at which point you kill everyone else.
EDIT: Or rather, that you win if the town is only made of cultists.
if that's the case, then we have to get all of the rest of you to go along with it. If you kill the last killer, then it's game over town win.
(oh hey demo post): Really? This is why I made that statement: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=MYLO (to be clear I don't think we're in either MYLO or LYLO right now, but this is the even/odd thing. even means that eventually we end up in MYLO, odd means eventually we end up in LYLO)
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 5:50 pm
by anthusiasm
So this endgame math is going way over my head. I am not a math person and I am tired. I am going to vote to kill thatwasademo because of mild suspicion and also because the day is ending relatively soon and I think abstaining is probably a bad idea, but most of my suspicion is based on stuff Paradox said and Paradox was a killer so this is totally subject to change.
I am not suspicious of BlueSkySprite because from the way she described it, the wording of her PM was really similar to the wording of mine, and I am also a townie with no powers.
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 5:56 pm
by Thatwasademo
Even and one higher means that we end up in LYLO one turn later than we would have been in MYLO.
But that isn't quite correct for the town right now, since we have leaderless cult gumming up the math.
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 6:00 pm
by Shoal
I am somewhat suspicious of BSS, pistachi0n, and I would be okay with a BSS lynch today, but these guys are going to think we're doing reverse psychology and so if we're suspicious of her then they won't lynch her. But maybe we've taken that into account and are pushing on her so that they'll be more likely to choose another target and let the killer live another day. So are we the type of cult that says we are suspicious when we want people to sheep us or when we don't? Are we both suspicious of BSS because we think she's the last killer or because we think she's not and we're trying to get a cult win?
Of course, we're the kind of cult that doesn't actually have any more information about who might be a killer than anybody else, so in the end it doesn't really matter, even if we try to push them in one direction or another, we have no way to know if we are pushing them toward our own ends or someone else's.
It might be better to follow their lead on this one, even if they're wrong about who the killer is, we have a few more days.
i am also going to bed soon.
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 5:07 am
by Shoal
vote: thatwasademo
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 5:49 am
by BlueSkySprite
I only got a little bit into the possibility trees last night before I realized I actually had to do my homework.
I'm still voting for Thatwasademo, but I thought I'd post what I found so far.
(I finished if there was only 1 killer and it's anthusiasm, and mostly finished if there was only one killer and it's BlueSkySprite. Everyone else is too far down the alphabet)
Possibilities tree. warning, long, weird format
If there is one killer: (names are chosen in alphabetical order)
If anthusiasm is the killer possibilities:
-The town kills anthusiasm. Town victory.
-The town kills BlueSkySprite.
Anthusiasm kills pistachi0n at night
Shoal and Thatwasademo kill anthusiasm. 50-50 Town or Cult victory.
Shoal and anthusiasm kill Thatwasademo. Anthusiasm kills Shoal at night. Killer victory.
Anthuisasm kills Shoal at night
pistachi0n and Thatwasademo kill anthusiasm. 50-50 Town or Cult victory.
pistachi0n and anthusiasm kill Thatwasademo. Anthusiasm kills pistachi0n at night. Killer victory.
Anthusiasm kills Thatwasademo at night.
Shoal and pistachi0n kill Anthusiasm. Cult victory.
-The town kills pistachi0n
Anthusiasm kills BlueSkySprite at night.
Shoal and Thatwasademo kill anthusiasm. 50-50 Town or Cult victory.
Shoal and anthusiasm kill Thatwasademo. Anthusiasm kills Shoal at night. Killer victory.
Anthusiasm kills Shoal at night.
Anthusiasm and Thatwasademo vote for each other. 50-50 Town or Killer victory.
Anthusiasm kills Thatwasademo at night.
Anthusiasm and Shoal kill BlueSkySprite. Anthusiasm kills Shoal at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite and Shoal kill anthusiasm. Town victory.
Anthusiasm and Shoal try to kill BlueSkySprite, BlueSkySprite votes to kill anthusiasm.
50% - BlueSkySprite dies, anthusiasm kills Shoal at night. Killer victory.
50% - Anthusiasm dies, Town victory.
BlueSkySprite tries to kill Shoal, Shoal and anthusiasm try to kill BlueSkySprite
50% - BlueSkySprite dies, anthusiasm kills Shoal at night. Killer victory.
50% - Shoal dies, anthusiasm kills BlueSkySprite at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite and anthusiasm kill Shoal. Anthusiasm kills BlueSkySprite at night. Killer victory.
-The town kills Shoal
Anthusiasm kills BlueSkySprite at night.
pistachi0n and Thatwasademo kill anthusiasm. 50-50 Town or Cult victory.
pistachi0n and anthusiasm kill Thatwasademo. Anthusiasm kills pistachi0n at night. Killer victory.
Anthusiasm kills pistachi0n at night.
Anthusiasm and Thatwasademo vote for each other. 50-50 Town or Killer victory.
Anthusiasm kills Thatwasademo at night.
Anthusiasm and pistachi0n kill BlueSkySprite. Anthusiasm kills Shoal at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite and pistachi0n kill anthusiasm. Town victory.
Anthusiasm and pistachi0n try to kill BlueSkySprite, BlueSkySprite votes to kill anthusiasm.
50% - BlueSkySprite dies, anthusiasm kills pistachi0n at night. Killer victory.
50% - Anthusiasm dies, Town victory.
BlueSkySprite tries to kill pistachi0n, pistachi0n and anthusiasm try to kill BlueSkySprite
50% - BlueSkySprite dies, anthusiasm kills pistachi0n at night. Killer victory.
50% - pistachi0n dies, anthusiasm kills BlueSkySprite at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite and anthusiasm kill pistachi0n. Anthusiasm kills BlueSkySprite at night. Killer victory.
-The town kills Thatwasademo
Anthusiasm kills BlueSkySprite at night.
pistachi0n and Shoal kill anthusiasm. Cult victory.
Anthusiasm kills pistachi0n at night.
BlueSkySprite and Shoal kill anthusiasm. Town victory.
BlueSkySprite tries to kill anthusiasm and anthusiasm and Shoal try to kill BlueSkySprite.
50%- Anthusiasm dies, Town victory.
50%- BlueSkySprite dies, anthusiasm kills Shoal at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite tries to kill Shoal, anthusiasm and Shoal try to kill BlueSkySprite
50% - BlueSkySprite dies, anthusiasm kills Shoal at night. Killer victory.
50% - Shoal dies, anthusiasm kills BlueSkySprite at night. Killer victory.
Anthusiasm kills Shoal at night.
BlueSkySprite and pistachi0n kill anthusiasm. Town victory.
BlueSkySprite tries to kill anthusiasm and anthusiasm and pistachi0n try to kill BlueSkySprite.
50%- Anthusiasm dies, Town victory.
50%- BlueSkySprite dies, anthusiasm kills pistachi0n at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite tries to kill pistachi0n, anthusiasm and pistachi0n try to kill BlueSkySprite.
50% - BlueSkySprite dies, anthusiasm kills pistachi0n at night. Killer victory.
50% - pistachi0n dies, anthusiasm kills BlueSkySprite at night. Killer victory.
If BlueSkySprite is the killer:
-The town kills anthusiasm.
BlueSkySprite kills pistachi0n at night.
BlueSkySprite and Shoal kill Thatwasademo. BlueSkySprite kills Shoal at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite and Thatwasademo kill Shoal. BlueSkySprite kills Thatwasademo at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite tries to kill Thatwasademo, and Thatwasademo and Shoal try to kill BlueSkySprite.
50% - BlueSkySprite dies. 50-50 Town or Cult victory.
50% - Thatwasademo dies. BlueSkySprite kills Shoal at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite tries to kill Shoal, and Thatwasademo and Shoal try to kill BlueSkySprite.
50% - BlueSkySprite dies. 50-50 Town or Cult victory.
50% - Shoal dies. BlueSkySprite kills Thatwasademo at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite kills Shoal at night.
BlueSkySprite and pistachi0n kill Thatwasademo. BlueSkySprite kills pistachi0n at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite and Thatwasademo kill pistachi0n. BlueSkySprite kills Thatwasademo at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite tries to kill Thatwasademo, and Thatwasademo and pistachi0n try to kill BlueSkySprite.
50% - BlueSkySprite dies. 50-50 Town or Cult victory.
50% - Thatwasademo dies. BlueSkySprite kills pistachi0n at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite tries to kill pistachi0n, and Thatwasademo and pistachi0n try to kill BlueSkySprite.
50% - BlueSkySprite dies. 50-50 Town or Cult victory.
50% - pistachi0n dies. BlueSkySprite kills Thatwasademo at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite kills Thatwasademo at night.
BlueSkySprite tries to kill pistachi0n, and Shoal and pistachi0n try to kill BlueSkySprite.
50% - BlueSkySprite dies. Cult victory.
50% - pistachi0n dies. BlueSkySprite kills Shoal at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite tries to kill Shoal, and pistachi0n and Shoal try to kill BlueSkySprite.
50% - BlueSkySprite dies. Cult victory.
50% - Shoal dies. BlueSkySprite kills pistachi0n at night. Killer victory.
-The town kills BlueSkySprite. 50-50 Town or Cult victory.
-The town kills pistachi0n.
BlueSkySprite kills anthusiasm at night.
BlueSkySprite and Shoal kill Thatwasademo. BlueSkySprite kills Shoal at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite and Thatwasademo kill Shoal. BlueSkySprite kills Thatwasademo at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite tries to kill Thatwasademo, and Shoal and Thatwasademo try to kill BlueSkySprite.
50%- BlueSkySprite dies. 50-50 Town or Cult victory.
50%- Thatwasademo dies. BlueSkySprite kills Shoal at night. Killer victory.
BlueSkySprite tries to kill Shoal, and Shoal and Thatwasademo try to kill BlueSkySprite.
50%- BlueSkySprite dies. 50-50 Town or Cult victory.
50%- Shoal dies. BlueSkySprite kills Thatwasademo at night. Killer victory.
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 7:05 am
by Shoal
@BSS, I think you used spaces for formatting and they've all been removed, and I know it's a lot of work, but if you could use some sort of 123, ABC, I II III, abc, i ii iii, structure to the trees to help us keep track of where we are in the tree, that would be great.
Also, and this is purely a suggestion for minimising future work and not a suggestion to undo what you've already done, but I think it would be a lot less work if you used Killer, Town A, Town B, Cult A, Cult B, because which cultist gets lynched or nightkilled isn't going to affect the outcome, and same for which townie is lynched not having an effect (beyond effects like town A is smarter/more eloquent/better at convincing people that they're right even when they're wrong than town B which can't be quantified in these trees i don't think). Like, it matters to the players which person is chosen because obviously that person can't contribute anymore and gets to join the IRC channel faster. but for the game math it doesn't matter.
and then if necessary a second tree with two killers and one townie. I think you can rule out 3 killers.
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 7:32 am
by BlueSkySprite
Okay, I'll do that next time, and try to add the level markers to this one.
It does make a big difference if I am a killer or if I am not and if I die or if I do not so I'll want to make a distinction between those.
I'll add the levels in a second post because I'm on mobile and worried I'll mess it up.
