Alicornutopia

Oh, and since we have less time than usual (@Shoal, did I do this right?)


Also, we don't know if the mafia still has someone who can influence votes alive.

BlueSkySprite, we would want to find and lynch a killer, if there was one. The cult would not care (very much, I guess it could reduce the number of coinflips by one on further analysis?).

If there are no killers left and we lynch a townie, we go from a town win to a 50/50 town/cult win.
If there are no killers left and we lynch a cultist, we go to 3/0/1, at which point we have this argument again and hopefully aren't stupid.
If there is one killer left and we lynch him, we go to a 50% chance of a cult win.
If there is one killer left and we lynch a townie, we go to 1/1/2, at which point the killer can either kill a cultist or a townie. If he kills a townie, he is obvious and the cult win. If he kills a cultist, the townie must vote him or lose to the killer immediately. The killer must then vote the townie or be obvious. If the cult guesses correctly, it's a 50/50 chance of their victory the next day.
If there is one killer left and we lynch a cultist, we go to 2/1/1, at which point the killer can either kill the last cultist or a townie. If he kills a townie, it's the same as killing a cultist in the above scenario. If he kills the last cultist, we have the same odds of finding him as we did today.
If there were two killers left, they would have made a kill last night and, basically, won (kill BSS, go to 1/2/1, coinflip for killer's win or continue at 1/1/1, go to 0/1/1 or 1/1/0, coinflip to decide winner) (if BSS is one of the two killers, they go to 1/2.5/1 or 0/2.5/2, which is an auto-win). I doubt there are two doctors in this game, especially since nobody has claimed as doctor.

Personally, I like the combined total odds of a town victory from the no killer/lynch cultist and one killer/lynch cultist scenarios.

Edit: hold on, I just noticed I have to adjust the middle scenarios for the extra vote, and also i think i should go into more detail about last night since i think i can prove it would have been a very bad move to not kill last night

You know what? Screw it, extra vote messes up the math in whichever faction it belongs to's favor enough that I'm going to Change Vote: anthusiasm. 2.5/0/2 is a town win no matter if we get there by lynching a townie or a killer (as long as the remaining town aren't terribly gullible), and a kill would have been, as far as I can tell, a guaranteed town loss if BSS were the killer or if there were two killers left.

Oh okay! Thank you for clarifying, I was very confused by that claim.

I think you might want to include separate maths for who specifically we kill, because it makes a difference in these whether I am a killer or not, and whether I die or not. For instance, in a scenario where I am a townie and the town kills a killer, the town is still assured victory because the votes against cultists will be 3:2, then 3:1, unless either cultist has powers. I think this might also make a difference in other calculations.

(Oh oops just as I submit there is another message relating to this)
I am slightly more suspicious of you as mafia than of anthusiasm of being mafia at this point, but not by a lot.
I'm going to go through the possibility trees for a bit and see if I can come up with anything useful.

Furthermore, going to 1.5/1/1 (the result if the killer is anthusiasm and we lynch me or I am the killer and we lynch anthusiasm, since the killer would auto-lose if he/she left two cult alive) would require the cult and killer to cooperate to get a 50% chance of the killer winning (the cult couldn't win at that point, but they would have half a kingmaking opportunity), so it turns out it wouldn't actually be terribly bad to miss today. Huh.

This then raises the question of what the cult are even planning at this point, and whether they are in fact the reason for my votes not counting earlier, since that would be the only way for them to win the way they're voting.

(Oh hi BSS post): Freaking mafia endgame math. I would definitely appreciate a second eye on the branching paths of future history.

@BSS, no :) The way to do it: set your time zone in your control panel to your own time zone if you haven't. http://alicorn.elcenia.com/board/ucp.php?i=174 Be sure to select daylight savings time if that's relevant at your location. then all of the times on the forum will be in your own time zone.

then look at the time stamp on alicorn's post. Then put that time into the timedown generator, just advance the day by 1 (in this case) http://www.pending.me.uk/create-anonymous-countdown then select your own timezone from the drop down.

You had it ending 7 hours too early so I'm guessing you selected the wrong timezone by mistake.

Demo, I think you are still overestimating the cult's win chances, but I don't feel like elaborating.




Unofficial vote count:

anthusiasm (2) : thatwasademo, shoal
thatwasademo (2): BlueSkySprite
BlueSkySprite (1): pistachi0n

Shoal wrote:Demo, I think you are still overestimating the cult's win chances, but I don't feel like elaborating.

Of course you would say that, you're cult. ;) Honestly, I'm just trying to be sufficiently paranoid of the possibility of suddenly getting owned by moves.

Demo, if it means anything, I cannot talk to Shoal privately. DanielH was roleblocked so I never made it to the cult chat. Literally the only thing I know is that Shoal is my buddy.

I think he is assuming you win if you achieve half or more of the town's population, at which point you kill everyone else.
EDIT: Or rather, that you win if the town is only made of cultists.

it's weird though because the no nightkill brought us back into the good numbers of having an odd number of players each day. demo can see it too, town has a better chance of winning with 5 players active during the day than with either 4 or 6.

@demo:yeah, i probably would.

i wish we did have private communication. it would increase our win chances, for sure. we have to discuss strategy where everyone can see us. I really hope that post game we can all talk to each other about all the things we wanted to say during the game but couldn't. I mean the dead people too.