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Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 11:27 am
by pistachi0n
So, no kill tonight. Why?
a) They decided not to kill anyone. If we could vote "no lynch" on the first day, the killers can probably opt out too. But why would they do that? Maybe to increase paranoia and cause a mislynch.
b) There's a system that decides who gets to make the kill every night, and whoever it would have picked tonight is Tau, jalapeno_dude, or Paradox.
c) There's still a protective power role. (!!!)
I know this isn't indicative of guilt, but I'm suspicious of BlueSkySprite solely because she hasn't been killed yet. She was the first to heavily hint at having a power role, and now ti's clear she has a double vote. Doublevoters can be either town or mafia, and they are hugely influential in this stage of the game. This could be because BSS is a killer who has contact with another killer, or she's not a killer and the killers think they can convince her that they aren't killers and harness the power of her vote.
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 1:50 pm
by Thatwasademo
...or there are no killers left and the cult prevent the town from winning.
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 2:09 pm
by Shoal
...or the killers deliberately didn't kill anyone so that we would come to that conclusion and turn on the cultists.
vote thatwasademo because it's probably him or anthusiasm.
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 2:16 pm
by Thatwasademo
I don't suppose Alicorn would be willing to just let us promise to never trust you or pistachi0n ever and wait for an appropriate ingot to arrive?
*sigh* No, that would be too easy (and also un-game-like). Vote: Shoal.
I should also mention that given the game tree at this point, neither of you have any incentive to actually try to find the killer today if there is one.
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 2:33 pm
by Thatwasademo
Also I should mention that the complete lack of night and your complete unwillingness to consider my hypothesis are both incredibly transparent, and that I was totally right about Paradox not being Miles.
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 3:52 pm
by Shoal
I have no way to determine if your hypothesis is true or false. I haven't gotten any PMs since Daniel died so if there's something I can or should do, I haven't been told. You were right about Paradox not being Miles.
Whether or not I have incentive to find killers today depends on how many of them are left. I am expecting there to be at least one left. We can go for Anthusiasm instead if you like. It's either you or them or both.
Vote: Anthusiasm.
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 4:07 pm
by pistachi0n
I think anthusiasm is the least likely out of everyone to be a killer, just because the game didn't halt at all when Ozymandias wasn't participating.
I don't agree with Demo that the killers are all gone. The game started with 20 people. We weren't told how many killers there were, obviously, but 3 seems like too few for a starting size of 20.
I'm more suspicious of BSS than Demo, though, and I said why in my previous post.
Vote: BlueSkySprite
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 4:35 pm
by anthusiasm
Currently torn between voting for thatwasademo and one of the cultists. Will need time to think about this.
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 4:44 pm
by Shoal
If the killers are working together, in a google doc or something where they can discuss strategy, and any one of them can submit the kill, then the game would not have ground to a halt while Ozy was gone, just Paradox or jalapeno or somebody would have submitted instead.
I did think it was odd that we'd have a Miles, a Cordelia, and an Ivan in the same game. We've had a Charlie and Alex but no Rene or Bella yet, which is surprising. I really expected a Bella. I expected there to be a Bella with mind safety powers (immune to Chelsea), and/or a Keziah with degooking powers (if there was, we'd both be villagers again by now) -- I think by now it's safe to say that I thought that's what BlueSkySprite was claiming when she said she'd be useful in the future but I no longer think that's true because it's been more than 2 nights since Daniel died and we're still cultists. And/or an Elspeth with truth telling powers (like kuu's truth thing that happened) or chelsea degooking or deprogramming a serial killer or something. but the lack of a Bella is the biggest surprise for me.
I could be convinced to switch to BSS maybe. It is pretty weird she's still around.
Re: Effulgence Mafia Game Thread
Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 4:49 pm
by BlueSkySprite
Sorry, could you explain the math on the why we would not want to kill a killer in our midst today?
If there is one killer left, I think it is probably Thatwasademo, although I guess from your perspectives I am probably the next most likely candidate, or anthusiasm.
If there are two killers left, it seems to me most likely to be Thatwasademo and anthusiasm. From your perspective it would be either Thatwasademo and anthusiasm or Thatwasademo and me.
I think Thatwasademo is more likely to be a killer than anthusiasm.
I am not a killer, so that leaves Thatwasademo as the one I am most suspicious of. vote Thatwasademo
I am not a killer, but if I was and I was working with another killer, it would have been a really bad idea not to kill someone last night since then the killers would be guaranteed to win by voting.
I would not expect the game to keep going with no killers and without a cult majority. I think the people with night time actions probably messaged the mods ahead of time.
Although they have now been pretty thoroughly established as useless, I am willing to reveal my crypto if that would help? I am also not at all sure why I haven't been murdered. I thought at the beginning they were worried I would be able to do something to them if they tried to kill me, but it's pretty clear now that I can't. The only reasons left I could think is either there is that bizarre voting schedule thing jalapeno_dude described going on and they thought I was probably a killer and on their side, which I think is unlikely for mafia game design reasons, or they are trying to set me up to get killed by the town so there will be less town voters and less opportunities to bring mob justice to the killers.