Alicornutopia

Posted: **Mon Apr 13, 2015 6:59 am**

Summary of roleclaims and encrypted messages from day 9.

This post will be updated throughout day 8. After that it will be mostly stable, but will still be updated with links to other indices when appropriate.

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All Revelations So Far

Posted: **Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:13 am**

Thatwasademo wrote:If I am the killer, which I'm not, I promise to steer the game towards the branch where the odds are 50/25/25 for the cult/killer/town respectively, rather than the branch where the odds are 75/25 for the cult/killer (by killing a cultist two nights from now). I can only hope that you have some respect for the first person to make such an offer, since it is as obviously in Paradox's best interest to make this offer as it is in mine, regardless of which of us is the killer.

Do you know it never occurred to me to make an offer based on a hypothetical situation where I was the killer? If I had to guess it didn't occur to any of the other townies either. This really doesn't seem like the kind of offer that someone would think to make unless they actually were a killer.

anthusiasum wrote: I still think Paradox is more likely to be the killer than thatwasademo because thatwasademo's confusion about his powers seemed genuine to me.

I'd like to point out that genuine confusion about powers and being a killer are far from mutually exclusive. Thatwasademo could be a killer with powers that they're confused by. One killer claimed to have roleblocking powers and it seems like the killers were manipulating the votes at some point so some of the killers have powers and I see no reason to think that they're powers would be any less confusing than the powers that townies have. There's actually probably a higher concentration of powers among killers than townies from what we've seen. So why do you think that confusion about powers is more likely from townies than mafia?

pistachi0n wrote:It was pointed out that Demo might have some reflexive power that would backfire and harm us, and while I have oodles of curiosity, I'd rather not risk it.

When BSS pointed this out she also said that that risk applies to me. As far as I know it doesn't but hidden roles are a thing. So, no guarantees that killing me won't trigger Cordelia Vorkosigan going shopping for someone's head.

Posted: **Mon Apr 13, 2015 8:52 am**

The 3/4 majority thing was mostly to move things along when we had 20 people. There are fewer now and you flip-flop a lot, so even though there is currently a clear majority I'm not going to call it until you've had the rest of the day to go back and forth another few times.

Posted: **Mon Apr 13, 2015 2:26 pm**

Why do you keep saying I'm confused about my powers? I'm not confused about them, I lack information about them. There's a difference. And do you seriously think being better at math than social persuasion has any correlation with being randomly chosen as scum in a game of mafia?

Posted: **Mon Apr 13, 2015 2:47 pm**

I was just using anthusiasum's phrasing when talking about confusion. Users who said they weren't suspicious of thatwasademo because of their confusion over their powers might want to reevaluate that in light of their recent comment.

It isn't about maths versus social persuasion it's about the fact that you made a promise that only has any relevance if you're mafia and people who are mafia probably think about what they could do if they're mafia in much more depth than people who aren't.

Posted: **Mon Apr 13, 2015 3:09 pm**

The promise was entirely prompted by discovering the possibility while plotting out the remaining possible paths of this game, which I did because I noticed there were six (well, at first I thought there were seven, as I said, which would have been an almost-certain victory for the town) players left. I had to know what the mafia's best move was in order to know how much leeway we had as townsfolk.

Posted: **Mon Apr 13, 2015 3:57 pm**

kuu was right, the numbers would have been better if we were odd -- that no lynch on day 1 has cost us some. But I don't know if there is anything to be gained from doing a no lynch now, whether having an odd number of players during the day is enough to make up for what that would cost us. -- I know there are some situations in which a late game no lynch to get the numbers back to odd is a good idea, but I think it requires us to have more information than we do (the exact number of killers).

Posted: **Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:38 pm**

@thatwasademo It's not suspicious that you plotted out the remaining possible paths, it's suspicious that after doing that that the first thing you were inclined to do was to make a promise that would only be relevant if you were a killer.

Posted: **Mon Apr 13, 2015 5:11 pm**

Well, the promise is also relevant if you're the killer if it gets the town to lynch you instead, since in that case I also win (being a member of the town).

The only cases in which it wouldn't be relevant are if BlueSkySprite or anthusiasm are the last killer.

Posted: **Tue Apr 14, 2015 11:19 am**

Vote tally:

Paradox: 6 (anthusiasm, BlueSkySprite, pistachi0n, Shoal, thatwasademo)
thatwasatemo: 1 (Paradox)

NIGHT TAKES ITS OWN SWEET TIME TO APPROACH. SOME OF US LIKE TO SLEEP LATE. STOP LOOKING AT ME LIKE THAT. You all nod at each other, except for Paradox, and you TEAR HIM TO SHREDS WITH THE USE OF COMMON HOUSEHOLD OBJECTS AND A LITTLE CREATIVITY AND SOME STRING. WOW, THAT WAS VIOLENT. DID YOU LEARN THAT ON TV. SOMEONE NEEDS TO PUT A STOP TO ALL THOSE GORY PROGRAMMES. LET US WRITE THE DAILY MAIL. You cross-reference Paradox's phrenological records with the current position of Jupiter and THE BEHAVIOR OF NEARBY STARLINGS and conclude that he was Truly Named the JOKER and he was a KILLER. HOO BOY, YOU GUYS ARE ON A ROLL.

Nothing happens, all night! ARE YOU FINALLY SAFE IN YOUR BEDS? OR ARE THEY LYING LOW TO LULL YOU INTO A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY? OR ARE THEY TOO DISGUSTED BY WHAT YOU DID TO PARADOX WITH THOSE PRUNING SHEARS AND THAT INCOMPLETE ENCYCLOPEDIA TO DO ANYTHING BUT WEEP AND VOMIT AND WRITE THEIR DIARIES? Find out next time on HOLY SHIT THEY'RE KILLING EACH OTHER: Effulgent Mafia Edition.

Day will last 24 hours. MOVE IT ALONG.

Alicornutopia

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