Effulgence Mafia Game Thread

[Shoal]

I agree with that reasoning, Paradox. Maybe there will be a JokerDad in the group to mix things up.

How many people think that Jalapeno was telling the truth about the part about not knowing the other killers?

I guess we'll find out after the game is over, but it's a weird dynamic and it makes it hard to find killers using the ordinary techniques of trying to find connections between players or suspicious absences of connections between players -- if most people question each other throughout the game, but there are 4 people who studiously never question each other, that can be telling. Or after this many days we could look at all of the patterns and voting and if tau and jalapeno both voted against the same person it might make sense that the rest of their group didn't vote with them to avoid being a conspicuous voting block of 4-5 people always voting the same way each time, instead they might mix it up voting in groups of 2 for different people -- always different groups of two. and we could tentatively clear people who had been on a bandwagon with both tau and jalapeno on those grounds. Tentative because it's not an exact science it's just lots of little things that can add up. I know Daniel and I were pretty conscious of not appearing to agree with each other too strongly all the time in public, and if we'd had more members to co-ordinate with we would have been trying not to be on a voting block together all the time.

If people are being friendly towards each other, is it because they're in a common faction? Because they're NOT in a common faction and the one initiating the friendliness wants to come across as innocent to the person they're targetting with their friendliness? If this mechanic is in place, friendliness may just indicate that ... the people are real life friends (or good online friends) who knew each other and liked each other before they started playing.

But if all of the killers don't know each other then there's no way to really analyse anything. It breaks the game in favour of the killers for them to be able to maintain perfect infosec because they have no information to consciously hide about anybody but themselves.

If this mechanic is in place, how should we try to behave to root out the killers? Does anyone have any ideas?

[pistachi0n]

Paradox--I'm suspicious of you because of process of elimination.

Back when Anthusiasum was Ozymandias, Ozy said they were a Darcy with no special powers. I think that was because Ozy knew she wasn't going to be active and was reassuring us that even if she wasn't posting, nothing major was being taken away from the game. Anthusiasum could be mafia, but if that were the case, I think finding a replacement immediately would have been a more pressing concern for the mods.

BlueSkySprite had a shocked and confused reaction when we accused her on the first day. She's also voted for jalapeno_dude and tau, which doesn't matter if the killers don't know each other, but still, her double vote has been useful. The only thing that makes me suspicious is that she's still alive. I don't think that's automatically indicative of guilt, and I think it's unlikely that she's mafia, so I feel a little weird about it but not weird enough to want to kill her.

Shoal is my cult buddy. I am not voting for Shoal. This is old news. If I had made it to the coordination channel and could talk to them privately I would be more discreet about this. But they were outed anyway when DanielH died and I outed myself when Kuuskytkolme wanted to vote for me the day after.

Thatwasademo was probably being honest about his mysterious power based on his crypto'd responses from the first few days. I don't think that excludes him from being a killer. jalapeno_dude was honest about who he roleblocked back while he was claiming to be Matilda. For the same reason, I think it's possible that Demo is mafia/killer with the mysterious bonus power, and he's selectively telling us about the bonus power only. But I think him telling us about that power at all makes him less suspicious.

That leaves Paradox.

edit: pronouns

[BlueSkySprite]

Darn. It was really convenient for her to be confirmed as Iron Man.
Okay, here's who's left: anthusiasm, BlueSkySprite, Paradox, Pistachi0n, Shoal, and Thatwasademo.
Suspicion list:
anthusiasm - Probably a vanilla townie. Very little suspicion.
BlueSkySprite - I am still not suspicious of myself
Paradox - Claims to be a Miles without powers. Apparently a lot of people received safe claims. Suspicion.
Pistachi0n - Cultist, probably vanilla. Mild distrust.
Shoal - Cultist, probably vanilla, claimed Alex template. Mild distrust.
Thatwasademo - Claims to be an Ivan with confusion about powers. Description of trying to find out what powers are seems genuine, but could also be a confused Downside killer. Mild suspicion.

Therefore, the people I think are most likely to be Downside killers are Paradox and Thatwasademo. I think Paradox is more likely than Thatwasademo to be a killer for the reasons I've listed before. If there is a flaw in my reasoning, please let me know.
Therefore: I vote to kill Paradox.

Maths for how to make sure our mob justice is served warm and bloody upon our intended recipient:
I'm pretty sure jalapeno_dude was the only one who could paralyze players because lots of killers being able to do that would be unbalanced (I think?). So I don't think we'll have to account for nonvoters. Last night, no votes were lost.
There are 6 people alive right now, which means a total of 7 votes if none are removed or transplanted.
So for a 3/4 majority, depending on whether it is based on votes or people, it requires either a 4.5 (probably rounded to 5? unless they do to the nearest even?) vote majority or a 5.25 vote majority (probably also rounded to 5?). If everyone votes, then it requires a vote ratio of 6:1 to make it not be a tie, because after one vote is blocked it would be 5:1 and after one is transplanted it would be 4:2, but with less than that it would go from 5:2 -> 4:2 -> 3:3 if my guess about what went on with tau's votes is correct. So with a vote of 5:2 against someone the killers valued being alive (again assuming the vote shenanigans are caused by the killers) we would be left to the probably 50% mercy of THE COIN. If it's a majority of 4:3 against someone the killers value, then they would be able to push that to 3:4 in the opposite direction. Unless it's something else going on.

@Shoal (final posting preview): I'm not sure. It seems strange enough that it might actually be true? If it is true, the killers might also each have a motivation to make sure the other killers die, if their only win condition is being alive at the end of the game, so they might also help us bring mob justice to the other killers? Also the killers probably have a motivation to make sure the cult doesn't become more than half of the population because then the killers might be voted to death because they are not cult members, depending on what they think cult win conditions are.

I thought we could just do what we did last night and list everyone we thought was suspicious, decide who was most suspicious, and kill that person.

@pistachi0n (Yet ANOTHER post was made while I was trying to submit): yes this is pretty close to my reasoning as well.

[pistachi0n]

Vote Paradox

[Paradox]

I agree with that reasoning, Paradox. Maybe there will be a JokerDad in the group to mix things up.

How many people think that Jalapeno was telling the truth about the part about not knowing the other killers?

I think he was lying. There's been exactly one kill a night which could be explained by only one member of the mafia getting it each night but Jalapeno said he tried to kill kuuskytkolme one night and someone still died that night so there must have been multiple killers that night. Unless by sheer coincidence every kill except one failed on the nights the mafia had multiple kills this does't really make sense. Also, there hasn't been any friendly fire among the mafia which isn't impossible but seems surprising.

@pistachi0n @blueskysprite

I voted for jalapeno_dude and tau so if that's evidence that BlueSkySprite is innocent it's also evidence that I'm innocent. I actually voted for jalapeno_dude when he had zero other people voting for him. Why would I do that if I was mafia? It would make way more sense to try and direct the votes towards someone who wasn't mafia.

Honestly I find thatwasademo's claim that he has powers but he has no idea what they do suspicious. I mean if you're a mafia member faking that you have mysterious powers you don't understand means that you can later pretend to have what ever powers would be most useful. Vote thatwasademo

[pistachi0n]

Paradox wrote:
I voted for jalapeno_dude and tau so if that's evidence that BlueSkySprite is innocent it's also evidence that I'm innocent.

I'm less suspicious of BSS than you because of her reaction on the first day. Also, I believe that not all the killers know each other and that there's some way of choosing who commits the kill every night.

[Shoal]

vote paradox

[Paradox]

Paradox wrote:
I voted for jalapeno_dude and tau so if that's evidence that BlueSkySprite is innocent it's also evidence that I'm innocent.

I'm less suspicious of BSS than you because of her reaction on the first day. Also, I believe that not all the killers know each other and that there's some way of choosing who commits the kill every night.

This seems unlikely since mafia is usually described as a conflict between an uninformed majority and an informed minority which wouldn't make sense if the killers didn't know each other. Also how do you explain the lack of mafia friendly fire if they don't know who the other killers are?

[Shoal]

Paradox wrote:
I voted for jalapeno_dude and tau so if that's evidence that BlueSkySprite is innocent it's also evidence that I'm innocent.

I'm less suspicious of BSS than you because of her reaction on the first day. Also, I believe that not all the killers know each other and that there's some way of choosing who commits the kill every night.

This seems unlikely since mafia is usually described as a conflict between an uninformed majority and an informed minority which wouldn't make sense if the killers didn't know each other. Also how do you explain the lack of mafia friendly fire if they don't know who the other killers are?

Yesterday Jalapeno_dude mentioned a pretty bizarrely elaborate scheme in which the mods told the killers privately which night they could kill on and they couldn't use their kill the other nights. We are not sure whether he was lying or not. I agree that it seems unlikely.

[Paradox]

Yesterday Jalapeno_dude mentioned a pretty bizarrely elaborate scheme in which the mods told the killers privately which night they could kill on and they couldn't use their kill the other nights. We are not sure whether he was lying or not. I agree that it seems unlikely.

And given that the elaborate scheme where the mafia don't know each other is unlikely to be true it doesn't make sense that if I was a killer I would have voted for Jalapeno_dude when nobody else was voting for him. On the other hand thatwasademo only joined the bandwagon when it was clear that jalapeno_dude was doomed which seems really suspicious to me.