Night 3 - Actions

[Shoal]

sorry I fell asleep. I'm also not sure which of us is more suspicious right now -- i think we're both fairly unsuspicious but we probably won't know for sure until we see the suspicion boxes tomorrow. I think if one of us does get spotted then everyone will think we weren't working together so the other will be safe for at least a few more days.

If whoever does the kill tonight is not spotted, then we can be pretty sure there isn't a watcher (just a tracker) and I think that'll mean it's safe to assign kills to Tulip after this.

[Tamien]

I haven't really made a decision between anthusiasm, futurevision, and Paradox yet. Anyone have a suggestion about priorities? I assume the plan is kill modrony?

[Shoal]

the names on anthusiasm's list post are all people that are either dead or not anthusiasm. The non-names are all pretty vague or incorrect (the mafia speculations). I think she took modrony's advice and made things up and she's not on her listpost. learning her name might not help.

I think futurevision is probably a dragon because they weren't too worried about being wagoned the other day, but we should check them sometime.

based on Paradox's listpost, they are either a vanilla townie or Ahin Kithen and probably a townie.

if we believe modrony's speculation of a light that isn't pistachi0n then Paradox seems the best to check.

I agree modrony should be killed.

[jalapeno_dude]

I think it is fairly likely that futurevision will get townkilled tomorrow (barring any revelations about us or other non-Town forces overnight). So we should probably investigate one of the other two. Both anthusiasm and Paradox are sketchy and very possibly not Town-aligned. (The links in the last sentence are to the analyses of listposts I did a few days ago.)

As for the kill, I talked myself out of killing modrony, but then argued myself back into it. Here was my logic. My first thought was that, in the worst-case scenario where someone (let's say me for simplicity) got caught killing modrony, I could survive the day by being protected but then Kappa would kill me the next night. That made me think we should kill Kappa first. But this only makes sense if the downside of keeping Kappa alive (one of us dies if we get caught) outweighs the benefits to leaving him alive. After thinking about it a little, I don't think that's true. For one thing, Kappa has seemed to be influential in Town and has failed to suspect us so far, which is good. More importantly, though, Kappa might do some of our killing for us, either because she falsely suspects someone of being Mafia or actually takes out one of the other anti-Town people (e.g. the demon--which, based on the answer I just got from Alicorn, I suspect we're not immune to). I think the possibility that this will happen is worth risking a (small, I think) chance of me dying tomorrow night.

(Also, that's not the worst-case scenario. The worst-case scenario I can think of is if modrony has successfully faked distress and this is a trap, I get possessed by the demon currently inhabiting modrony, my win condition changes, and I start killing other Mafia members at night and/or revealing their identities to Town.)

[jalapeno_dude]

Shoal, I actually think Paradox is not a vanilla townie--see the link in my last post.

[Shoal]

that makes sense. sorry, it's very early in the morning. the fact tat i'm townreading anthusiasm (for real) probably makes anthusiasm more suspicious.

keep kappa alive for now. kappa can be leashed*.

*in one of my games on the other site there were suggestions from the town that a known serial killer could be leashed -- they could agree to kill who the town wanted them to kill or be lynched the next day. this wasn't done, the town decided against it, and in our situation we can't officially leash kappa in that way because she wouldn't want to work for us. but by directing suspicions where we want them in the suspicions posts (or at least keeping them off of us), we can direct kappa to use his night kill towards not-us.

[Tamien]

The possibility that this is all a weird trap by modrony and we should therefore hesitate to kill them has also crossed my mind, and I was considering investigating them on this basis except that it seemed like we were going to kill them.

I agree that futurevision's high enough on the town's collective hit list that we can probably get away with not investigating them. Of anthusiasm and Paradox, I feel like anthusiasm seems more like she's flailing. Not sure whether this is evidence towards anthusiasm or Paradox being the more dangerous. I think I'm leaning towards investigating anthusiasm?

Incidentally, if we are ever discovered to not be town, we could, theoretically, set ourselves up as anti-Addies (ie, we don't want all infidels dead, we just want everyone with demon powers dead) and say that we can only do this by trying to influence the lynch (or at least deny that we *share* killing potential, rather than one of us being a killer).

[Shoal]

I like that idea. It worked for Alpha last game -- people were still suspicious of him but then when he died it ended up being true. We can pretend to be a third party like alpha was and it will work for a little while anyway, but once one of us flips mafia aligned the game will be up for those that were outed.

[Tamien]

That's true - if our affiliation comes up "Mafia" (which it seems likely to do, given our role PMs), that's much harder to spin than simply "Ryganaavlan".

[Shoal]

yeah. I mean WE know that we're the good guys seeking to rid the town of the infidels but the infidels don't know that we're the good guys.